Not all survey questions performed equally, the study found. Questions that forced respondents to choose their most important issue were more closely tied to physical reactions than those that allowed respondents to rate multiple issues as important. But overall, the results were encouraging, Tremblay-Antoine wrote. “When we ask people what matters to them or what they prefer, we can have real confidence that their answers reflect their genuine priorities. It may seem obvious, but it had never actually been tested this way.” Top-issue polls face other challengesWhile the novel Canadian study suggests people can tell pollsters which issues they feel passionately about, measuring and interpreting the public’s biggest concerns can be difficult. Top-issue polls sometimes show differing results depending on which issues are listed. A May Quinnipiac University poll found 26 percent of voters chose “preserving democracy” as the nation’s most urgent issue, but a Gallup poll asking an open-ended question found 2 percent of adults naming elections or democracy as the country’s top problem. Open-ended questions rely mainly on issues at the top of voters’ minds, but can miss other issues that they have strong feelings about. In addition, the connection to how people vote is shaky. One study by Thomas J. Leeper and Joshua Robison analyzed 48 issues across presidential elections from 1980 to 2008 to see whether voters who said an issue was important based their vote on those issues. The results were inconsistent: issue importance mattered in some cases, but in many other cases it did not.
Thanks to the more than 50 readers who sent in questions or ideas about polling! I look forward to writing about all of them in the coming months, but Cynthia’s query seems perfect to start with: Q: I have often wondered about the legitimacy of polls because I don’t know who or how people are selected to participate. So 1. How are people selected? 2. How can I participate? A: There are two main sampling approaches. Random or probability-based samples start with a “sampling frame” that includes everyone in the target population, such as the U.S. Postal Service’s address file or a state’s list of registered voters. A poll contacts a random sample from that frame using one or more methods, such as by phone, text, email or phone. Actual samples are more complex to overcome the fact that the frame is usually missing contact information for many people, or that certain types of people are more likely to respond. Non-probability or opt-in online samples are the second main way polls recruit respondents, using online ads that offer rewards or payment for taking surveys. While some polls recruit respondents for a single interview, survey panels that recruit respondents for multiple surveys are increasingly common. Some panels recruit panel members using non-probability methods, while others use random sampling. 2. How can I participate? While anyone can sign up to take online surveys through an opt-in survey company, there’s no way to volunteer for surveys conducted using random sampling. Survey methods have changed dramatically since the early 2000s, with a massive growth in opt-in online surveys and decline in live-caller phone polls, as documented by the Pew Research Center. |
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