| | | | | Welcome. This week, flow batteries and genetically engineered chestnut trees. But first, why some rising trends are good news. |  | | One line has risen inexorably since the Paris agreement was signed in 2015: global average temperatures. The world is now measurably warmer, edging closer to the 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming that countries aim to prevent in the breakthrough climate agreement. But not all rising trend lines are bad. A few are worth celebrating. "Many things shifted in the right direction" over the past decade, says the nonprofit research group New Climate Institute, which has analyzed a suite of global trends since 2015. Everything from electric vehicle sales to solar installations appears to be approaching a takeoff point when rapid decarbonization becomes possible, sometimes decades before analysts expected. That's not cause for complacency, but it might be enough for cautious optimism. Here are a few examples. Climate policies go global At the turn of the century, few of the world's major emitters had enacted climate policies. Today, most major countries have adopted a mix of climate regulations, investments, standards, market instruments and voluntary programs, covering everything from electricity to agriculture. Since COP28 led to a deal calling for a global fossil fuel phaseout, we may see this trend go into overdrive. |  | | More climate cases are going to court — and winning. More than 2,300 climate change litigation cases have been filed around the world, according to the Sabin Center at Columbia Law School, the vast majority since 2015. Despite some high-profile losses, more than 50 percent of climate cases have led to decisions "understood as favorable to climate action," says the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. One of the most promising was a Montana state court decision in August that found Montana had violated the rights of youth plaintiffs to a "clean and healthful environment" by promoting the use of fossil fuels. That's probably just the start. Dozens of lawsuits, including one by California, are seeking billions of dollars in damages from oil companies accused of deception over their role in climate change. |  | | Clean energy is attracting more money than fossil fuels Nearly $1.7 trillion will flow into low-carbon energy technologies this year, estimates the International Energy Agency, while $1 trillion will back fossil fuels, a gap that has been widening since 2016. | | We can't put too much stock in mere growth. Emissions from fossil fuels are projected to rise by 1.1 percent this year. We're still not transitioning fast enough to hit net-zero goals: clean energy investments should reach $4 trillion annually by 2030 as fuel investments should decline, reports the IEA. But the trends are clear. Speed is now the name of the game. If nations accelerate their commitments in the COP28 agreement, hailed by the United Nations as the "'beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era," we may see global average temperatures stop rising sooner than expected. Have questions for my next column? Write climatecoach@washpost.com. I read all your emails. |  | Learning Curve For the past several years, a small group of scientists have warned temperatures could rise higher, faster. That seems to be happening, writes The Washington Post's Chris Mooney and Shannon Osaka. Climate scientist James E. Hansen and a group of colleagues argued in a paper published last month the pace of global warming could rise by 50 percent in the coming decades. There was already an acceleration after the 1970s, possibly because of a reduction of Earth-cooling aerosols in the atmosphere. Scientists are now debating if better air pollution controls that reduced aerosols, which tend to cool the climate, are affecting global temperatures which are rising about .02 C per decade. | | Not everyone agrees. "I think we probably need maybe three or four more years" of data, said Chris Smith, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds. "It's just a bit too early right now." | The Second Degree Many of you wrote to let me know that my Alberta spruce, however suitable as a Christmas tree, is not a pine tree. Too true! Spruces (Picea spp.), are genera of conifers distinct from pine (Pinus spp.) and fir (Abies spp.), something I should have remembered from silviculture class. And if you are considering a living tree for next year, I would amend my advice: Broaden your search for a conifer native to your region. Not all are suitable for containers, so ask your local nurseries what might work for your backyard and ecosystem. Enjoy the holidays! |  | | Elise Roe has been wearing some of the items in her wardrobe longer than I've been a journalist. "I made a Frostline Kit mountain parka in the mid seventies and I'm still wearing it these days!" she writes. "The cuffs are a bit frayed, but other than that, it's in great shape!" Here's a shot. Send your photos and stories to climatecoach@washpost.com. | | Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here to get The Climate Coach in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday. See you next Tuesday, Michael Coren, Climate Coach | | | | | | | | |
