News Reporter: Climate Coach: Will COP28 break your heart?

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Down-to-earth advice for life on our changing planet.

By Michael J. Coren

Welcome. This week, axolotls and lithium eureka. But first, will COP28 break your heart?

COP is here again.

Every year, thousands of people gather in a far-flung city for the annual "conference of the parties," the palaver of signatories to the United Nations' premier climate treaty known as UNFCCC. Long criticized as a talk shop for diplomats, negotiators and NGOs, it remains the largest such international forum for nations to tackle the world's thorniest problem.

The Kyoto Protocol, the first major agreement linked to the UNFCCC, is widely viewed as a failure. But the process eventually led to breakthrough agreements, most recently the Paris agreement committing nations to prevent global average temperatures from rising 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5C (2.7F).

So far, the world is not on track to meet those goals. Getting carbon-cutting efforts back on track is on the agenda at the next meeting, COP28, in the oil-rich monarchy of the United Arab Emirates, starting Nov. 30.

What can you expect from COP28? I've been to three conferences in my career, from Bali to Cancún to Copenhagen. Each one was disappointing but also held reasons to hope. Expectations for this round in the UAE are particularly low.

"Whatever happens in Dubai will be way less ambitious and satisfying to [climate] activists than Paris," says Maxine Joselow, one of The Washington Post's climate policy reporters who anchors The Climate 202 newsletter. A fossil fuel phaseout, the most ambitious goal that would eventually reduce the production of fossil fuels to zero, is "highly unlikely."

What might we get instead? Read the fine print. Few people care more about language than climate negotiators at COP, where agonizing negotiations over semicolons and brackets can stretch for days.

The UAE and other major oil producers will probably block anything more ambitious than a "phase-down," predicts Joselow.

What is the worst outcome? A COP that descends into bickering, backroom oil and gas deals, and neglect of the Global South.

So far, the UAE is hoping to open COP28 with a bang by signing a "loss and damage" deal helping vulnerable countries cover climate-related disasters. Early signs suggest an uphill battle: President Biden will not attend a world leaders' summit at the conference, and Sultan Al Jaber, the oil executive and Emirati leader at the helm of COP28, has forcefully denied allegations his nation planned to use the summit to strike oil and gas deals.

No matter what, we won't know until the end. COPs are often nail-biters. Negotiations go late into the night (and often into the next morning) through the last day.

Field Sample

Wolverines are at risk of disappearing in much of the United States, writes The Post's Dino Grandoni. The deep mountain snow the carnivore needs to dig dens and protect its young is retreating as the climate warms. Nearly a quarter of it will be gone over the next 30 years and nearly two-thirds of it over the next 75 years, according to the Fish and Wildlife Service.

(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Though robust populations persist throughout Canada and Alaska, as well as in Russia and Scandinavia, just 300 are hanging on in their range across northern portions of the Rocky and Cascade mountains. On Wednesday, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service announced it was adding wolverines in the Lower 48 to the list of species threatened with extinction.

That may give the wolverine, "a dangerous combination of ferocity and curiosity," as one wild life biologist described them, a fighting chance.

Learning Curve

Flights are full again. While business travel remains below pre-pandemic levels, traveling for vacation and other leisure activities has soared, offsetting teleconferencing among workers. That's bad news for the climate, reports The Post's Shannon Osaka.

Flying represents about 2.5 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and about 3.5 percent of human-caused warming every year. Aviation emissions are set to triple by 2050.

But if you're looking for alternatives in a country like the United States, few easy ones exist at the moment. That may change if we invest in high-speed options. A study by the International Council on Clean Transportation found high-speed rail could replace 54 percent of domestic flights.

At the moment, the country's fastest train route — Amtrak's Acela from Boston to D.C. — operates at just half the speed of high-speed rivals overseas. California's planned high-speed rail from San Francisco to Los Angeles approved by state voters in 2008, potentially the country's next major route, does not yet have a planned opening date.

The Second Degree

With all this talk of early adopters of clean appliances in my recent column, Mary asked if it was worth switching from her old electric resistance stove (picture glowing red coils) to an induction model. "With the other big expense of installing a 240-volt outlet, it looks to me like the 10 percent savings in electricity will not be worth [it] especially because I have solar panels and my electricity bill is zero," she writes.

If you're already electric, you're clean burning. So the biggest benefit of switching to induction is performance: Induction stoves are up to three times more efficient, not to mention quick, convenient, precise and safe. Since you probably already have a 240-volt outlet, the switch is easy.

Mark Norris, a professor of environmental science at Stevenson University, raved about his geothermal heating system installed three years ago near Baltimore. The upfront cost was $23,000. After rebates, the final cost was $8,000 — less than many HVAC replacements. His natural gas consumption is down 80 percent, while electricity consumption rose nearly 50 percent. "In short, I'm very happy with my decision more than 3 years later." He shared his story with Consumer Reports if you want to read more.

On the Climate Front

From The Washington Post:

As the nation's largest landlord, the federal government faces a backlash in Wyoming as the Biden administration emphasizes conservation, recreation and renewable energy on public lands.

If an octopus is so smart, should you eat it?

Inside the UAE's plan for a 'success story' at the COP28 climate talks.

Feeling the chill? The easiest ways to save up to 20 percent on your heating bill this winter.

From elsewhere:

To save axolotls, a charismatic salamander, Mexican conservationists are asking you to adopt them, reports NPR.

Jet fuel will soon be made at a former natural gas refinery using carbon dioxide and green hydrogen, says Heatmap.

Recharge reports massive lithium deposits confirmed in California's Salton Sea, enough to power 375 million electric vehicles.

Politico documents the hope, and agony, of one U.S. mega wind project's 17-year odyssey from idea to approval.

Ryder Kimball, who works at remote sensing firm Planet Labs, sent these shots from flying over the mineral-rich terrain of the Salton Sea, home to the massive "once in a generation" lithium deposits recently confirmed by the Energy Department.

Send your photos and stories to climatecoach@washpost.com.