News Reporter: The Daily 202: Democrats predict anti-Trump ‘tsunami’ in 2018 governor’s races

Democrats predict anti-Trump 'tsunami' in 2018 governor's races

Actress Jennifer Garner and Gov. Jay Inslee (D-Wash.) confer on Saturday during the National Governor Association's Winter Meeting in Washington. Garner spoke about the need for early education. (Cliff Owen/AP)

BY JAMES HOHMANN

with Breanne Deppisch

THE BIG IDEA: As a House freshman, Jay Inslee lost reelection in 1994 because of voter frustration with Bill Clinton's first two years as president. Tom Foley, who represented an adjacent district, became the first Speaker to lose reelection since the depths of the Civil War.

"I've personally experienced a 65-foot fall tsunami directed at a party whose president had caused a great backlash," said Inslee, who returned to Congress four years later and is now in his second term as governor of Washington State. "So I know what blowback can look like, and I will tell you that the energy that now exists in the opposite direction is greater than existed in 1994."

As the chairman-elect of the Democratic Governors Association, Inslee will quarterback his party's efforts in next year's gubernatorial contests. To say he's bullish would be an understatement. "Democrats are going to crawl across broken glass on their knees to go vote in 2018, if the conditions exist as they do today," Inslee said during an interview yesterday afternoon at the J.W. Marriott, before he headed to the White House for a black-tie gala hosted by President Trump.

Inslee was part of the lawsuit that resulted in the Ninth Circuit blocking Trump's travel ban, and he has oodles of anecdotes about people getting politically involved for the first time since the president took office. The other day, for example, he saw nine grandmothers he knows riding the ferry from Bainbridge Island to Seattle wearing pink hats.

"I've never, ever within a factor of 10 received as much affirmative response from people in my 25 years in public life," he said. "I would have loved for them to have been more involved in my campaigns, frankly, but they're on that boat now. Because something has sparked. There's some fuse that's been lit here, that's connected to something that's very explosive. I've seen it most profoundly around the travel ban, but the fuse is definitely lit. The TNT is there."

Donald Trump walks towards Melania, left, after speaking at a dinner reception for governors at the White House last night. (Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP)

-- No one can predict what the political environment will be a year-and-a-half from now, but historically the president's party loses seats in his first midterm.

Even if Trump was a generic Republican, which he is most certainly not, the terrain was already going to be quite favorable for Democrats. They have just 16 governorships, a dozen fewer than when Barack Obama took office.

There are two governor's races this year, in Virginia and New Jersey, and 36 next year. Republicans currently hold the governorship in 27 of those 38 states. Hillary Clinton won nine of the 27 states (including Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada and Vermont). In another five of the 27, Hillary Clinton lost in November but Barack Obama carried them twice: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan. Trump prevailed in just one of the 10 states Democrats need to defend next year: Pennsylvania.

-- One reason Senate Republicans are playing so much offense in 2018 is because 2012 was such a bad cycle for them in red states. Missouri's Claire McCaskill and Indiana's Joe Donnelly are senators today because of self-inflicted wounds by Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock. If Republicans had not coalesced behind such losers in places like Montana and North Dakota six years ago, they might have those seats too.

In the same vein, Democrats are on offense in governor's races because Republicans capitalized so effectively on anti-Obama backlash during down-ballot races in 2010 and 2014. Those were the two best cycles for the GOP since Doc Hastings toppled Inslee in 1994. With the anger out there, Democrats are bullish that 2018 will represent a boomerang to the 2010 tea party wave.

Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) visits Havana earlier this month. (Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters)

-- If Inslee is thinking about 1994, John Hickenlooper's frame of reference right now is the 1960s. "I grew up in the '60s," Colorado's Democratic governor said in a separate interview on Sunday. "I remember marching against the Vietnam War. I was at the first Earth Day … Those protests were wildly enthusiastic. People were rising up all over the country. But Richard Nixon won in 1968 and again in 1972. Those protests didn't necessarily translate into election victories. So what's got to happen now is that all of this energy has got to lead into political organizing. For every protest, there should be 100 organizing meetings."

Hickenlooper said Trump will primarily be judged on his ability to restore vitality to manufacturing communities that have been hollowed out over the decades. "That's the expectation people have, and it's a tall order," said the governor, who was a successful resturaunter before becoming mayor of Denver.

He predicted that Democrats running for governor in 2018 will talk much more about the economy than they have in recent cycles, especially in the industrial Midwest. "In 2018, I think we'll see a better organized, more jobs-focused Democratic Party," said Hickenlooper. "He's got a lot of people paying attention, and that's a good thing. … But it's going to take a lot of work and a lot of organizing to bring some of these states back."

National Governors Association Chairman Terry McAuliffe (D-Va.) speaks last night during a dinner reception in the State Dining Room of the White House. (Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP)

-- This cycle's governor's races are even more important than usual because they may determine which party controls the U.S. House over the next decade. In big states such as Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia, a governor has veto power over redistricting maps. Because Republicans did so well in the 2010 midterms, they had more say over legislative maps, which helped lock in their strength.

"I talked to Nancy Pelosi the day after the election," said Virginia Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe. "I said to Nancy, 'I don't care how much money you have. You cannot win the House if we don't have lines that are fairly drawn, that are competitive. It just doesn't matter.' … We've got to win these governors races because if we don't they're going to draw the maps and you're not going to see (Democrats win) back Congress for another 10 years."

McAuliffe is leading a DGA effort called "Unrig the Map" that's focused on redistricting. He notes that Democrats control every statewide office in Virginia, and have carried the state in the past three presidential elections, but Republicans dominate the House delegation seven seats to four seats because they drew the lines. Gerrymandering also locks in a major GOP advantage in the state legislature. "If we don't win in Nov. 2017, I don't have to tell you what will happen to Virginia," said McAuliffe, who by law can only serve one term. "If Ralph (Northam) or Tom (Perriello) is not there, Democrats are out of Virginia for 10 years. Honestly. It is what it is. We're done."

The former DNC chairman lamented that the Koch political network and other conservative groups have focused so much more on state-level races than their progressive counterparts. "The party has to get their act together," he said in an interview. "I tell people that you cannot just raise money in a presidential year and then just go sit home because you cannot win elections that way."

McAuliffe, embracing his role as a goalie, is on track to veto more bills than any governor in the history of Virginia. "We have legislation worse than North Carolina that I have vetoed," he said. "My strongest argument for Ralph is that if you have a Republican sitting there, like Eddie Gillespie or whoever, they're going to have to sign this legislation. It is not hypothetical. It passes the chamber easily. I am the only thing stopping Virginia from becoming worse than North Carolina. Think of that."

Watch the full interview with Gov. Scott Walker

-- Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, expressed confidence that GOP candidates can thrive in 2018, even if the president's popularity stays relatively low. The key, in his view, is that most voters don't see Trump as a conventional Republican. "While the president is obviously a Republican, probably even more so than ever before, people get that Donald Trump is unique to Donald Trump," Walker said on Friday during a "202 Live" interview at The Post's headquarters. "And while there are things we like, there are also things that I may not appreciate."

Even then, he predicted that Trump might not be the down-ballot drag that conventional wisdom anticipates. "I'm actually an optimist," said Walker. "I actually think good things are going to happen. I think that the (repeal and replacement of Obamacare) is actually going to be better … and people are going to see it. I actually think they're going to do tax reform that brings American jobs back from overseas and stimulates the economy to get to three, maybe four, percent GDP growth."

The governor, who is expected to announce he will seek a third term when Wisconsin's legislative session ends, predicted that the midterms will turn more on local issues than national ones. "A Republican will win not because of public opinion about the president of the United States. A Republican will win because they have big, bold ideas that relate to people," he said. "None of us running for governor in our respective states in 2018, even if things are going really well in Washington, are going to run on Washington because it's against our nature." (Read the transcript of my 45-minute interview here.)

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WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:

Watch the crazy ending of the Oscars

-- "Moonlight" claimed the prize for best picture at the Oscars last night, beating out "La La Land" after a gaffe of Hollywood-esque proportions. For the first time in the 89-year-history of the awards show, an incorrect winner was announced. Monica Hesse and Karen Heller have the rundown in case you missed the moment: "Presenters Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway had originally announced anticipated favorite 'La La Land' as the winner of the night's biggest award. But midway into that production team's acceptance speeches, an Oscars staffer with a headset appeared on stage and whispered news to 'La La Land' producer Jordan Horowitz. Horowitz then rushed to the microphone. 'There's been a mistake,' he said. ''Moonlight,' you guys won.' In a surreal scene, the stage filled with cast and crew of both films, as confused viewers at home and in the Dolby Theater tried to figure out if they were privy to an unprecedented foul-up or an elaborate joke. 'Moonlight' writer/director Barry Jenkins seemed stunned as he accepted the gently-used trophy. 'Even in my dreams, this could not be true,' Jenkins said. 'But to hell with dreams!'"

Other big winners of the night included Emma Stone and Casey Affleck for best actress and actor, respectively, in a leading role, Damien Chazelle as best director, and "O.J.: Made in America" for best documentary. Check out a complete list here. If you didn't watch, Emily Yahr made a list of the 10 most memorable moments.

All the times the Oscars got political

-- Jimmy Kimmel took several digs at Trump in a biting monologue. Three of the most memorable:

"This broadcast is being watched by millions of Americans and around the world, 225 countries that now hate us..."
"Maybe this is not a popular thing to say, but I want to say thank you to President Trump. Remember last year when it seemed like the Oscars were racist? That's gone, thanks to him."
"It's important that we take a second to appreciate what is happening here. We're at the Oscars. … Some of you will get to come up here on this stage tonight and give a speech that the president of the United States will tweet about in all caps during his 5 a.m. bowel movement tomorrow."

Trump, McAuliffe toast each other at governors' dinner

-- Trump might not have live-tweeted during the Academy Awards because he was hosting 46 governors for his first White House ball. It was also his first black-tie event at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Emily Heil reports that the president boasted it was the most governors to ever attend a ball like the one he was having. Then he welcomed the governors "and their wives and daughters" to the White House, forgetting that there are women who also hold the title.

Philip Bilden withdraws. (File)

--Trump's nominee to be Navy secretary withdrew from contention yesterday. Philip Bilden, a private equity fund manager, said his decision was "driven by privacy concerns and significant challenges he faced in separating himself from his business interests," reports Missy Ryan. "Bilden said he concluded that he would not be able to fulfill U.S. ethics rules 'without undue disruption and materially adverse divestment of my family's private financial interests.'" Bilden is the second nominee to a military service to withdraw their name from consideration for the post -- earlier this month, billionaire and veteran Vincent Viola took himself out of the running to be Army secretary.

-- Trump will formally instruct federal agencies today to assemble a budget that includes sharp hikes in military spending and drastic cuts to domestic agencies that enable him to keep promises to safeguard Social Security and Medicare. The New York Times' Glenn Thrush, Kate Kelly, and Maggie Haberman have a preview: "A day before delivering a high-stakes address on Tuesday to a joint session of Congress, Mr. Trump will demand a budget with tens of billions of dollars in reductions to the [EPA] and State Department. … Social safety net programs, aside from the big entitlement programs for retirees, would also be hit hard. Preliminary budget outlines are usually little-noticed administrative exercises, the first step in negotiations between the White House and federal agencies that usually shave the sharpest edges off the initial request."

The plan is a collaborative effort drafted by Steve Bannon, OMB director Mick Mulvaney, and National Economic Council director Gary Cohn – largely intended to make a big splash for a president "eager to show that he is a man of action."
The plan is only an outline likely to see "substantial" alterations from Capitol Hill Republicans — as well as vehement pushback from Democrats. But it also comes as Trump's first big step into a legislative fray he has largely avoided thus far, choosing instead to act through a series of executive orders.
Resistance from federal agencies could ease some of its deepest cuts. And to meet the sharp defense spending request he wants, both parties would have to agree to raise or end statutory spending caps imposed by the 2011 Budget Control Act.

Members of Malaysia's Hazmat team conduct a decontamination operation at the departures terminal of the Kuala Lumpur Airport yesterday. (Manan Vaysyana/AFP/Getty Images(

GET SMART FAST:

Malaysian authorities said Kim Jong Nam died a "very painful death" within 20 minutes of having the toxic nerve agent VX smeared on his face. The results suggest that the North Korean dictator's estranged half-brother was exposed to an "overwhelming" amount of the drug, which is so potent that it is classified as a weapon of mass destruction. (Anna Fifield)
Pyongyang's apparent involvement in Nam's death has prompted U.S. officials to cancel talks with North Korean diplomats, slated to be held next week in New York. Their visas were reportedly revoked on Friday after confirmations that Nam's death was caused by the VX nerve agent. (Anna Fifield)
Vandals attacked a Jewish cemetery in Northeast Philadelphia this weekend, toppling up to 100 headstones just one week after a similar incident was reported at a Jewish burial ground in Missouri. Police said they are working to determine whether the act was "drunken kids" or something more sinister. The ADL has offered a $10,000 reward for information leading to arrest of the perpetrators. (Sarah Kaplan)
A pickup truck driven by a man believed to be highly intoxicated plowed into a Mardi Gras parade in New Orleans on Saturday, hurling bodies through the air and injuring at least 28 spectators. While no deaths have been reported, the accident was reminiscent of other horrifying recent crashes including a truck attack on a Bastille Day crowd in France last year. (Avi Selk)
At least 42 were killed in western Syria on Saturday, after al-Qaeda-linked militants attacked two heavily guarded security facilities in the city of Homs. Monitoring groups said the militants blew themselves up and opened fire outside headquarters of general and military intelligence – two of the most heavily fortified complexes in the area. (Louisa Loveluck)
A white high school football player who brutally assaulted a mentally disabled black student with a coat hanger will avoid jail time. Just months ago, he was said to be facing a sentence of up to life in prison, but he will avoid prison completely after pleading guilty to the crime. (Avi Selk)

William Owens holds a photo of his youngest son, the late Navy SEAL William "Ryan" Owens, at his home inb Florida. Ryan Owens was killed during an anti-terrorism raid in Yemen. In the photo his dad's holding, he was visiting the White House and posed for a photo with Barack Obama's dogs after being awarded medals for his service. (Emily Michot/Miami Herald via AP)

MOUNTING CALLS FOR INVESTIGATIONS:

-- The father of a Navy SEAL killed during a counterterrorism raid in Yemen has demanded an investigation into its planning and has spoken out against the Trump administration for its timing, the AP reports: "Bill Owens told The Miami Herald in a story published Sunday that he refused to meet with President Donald Trump when both came to Dover Air Force Base to receive the casket carrying his son, Chief Special Warfare Officer William 'Ryan' Owens. 'I want an investigation,' said Owens, a retired Fort Lauderdale police detective and veteran. 'The government owes my son an investigation.' The younger Owens, a 36-year-old married father of three, was the lone U.S. fatality in the Jan. 27 raid on a suspected al-Qaeda compound. Approximately 16 civilians and 14 militants died in the raid, which the Pentagon said was aimed at capturing information on potential al-Qaeda attacks against the U.S. and its allies." White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders told ABC's "This Week" that Trump would likely support such an investigation: "I can't imagine what this father is going through," she said. "His son is a true American hero, and we should forever be in his son's debt."

Darrell Issa speaks to Bill Maher on Friday. (Janet Van Ham/HBO via AP)

-- Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), who supported Trump in the election, said a special prosecutor should be used to investigate any potential communications between Trump staffers and Russia during the 2016 campaign: "You are right that you cannot have somebody, a friend of mine -- Jeff Sessions -- who was on the campaign and who was an appointee," the former chairman of the House Oversight Committee said on HBO's "Real Time with Bill Maher." "You're going to need to use the special prosecutor's statute and office ... not just to recuse. You can't just give it to your deputy. That's a political appointee." This comment makes Issa one of the few Republican representatives to publicly voice support for an independent investigation.

7 reactions to congressman's call for special prosecutor to probe Russian meddling

-- Sanders, the White House spokeswoman, said it is too early to say whether Jeff Sessions should recuse himself and appoint a special prosecutor to look into Russian meddling in the 2016 election. She said on on ABC's "This Week" that congressional committees should be allowed to look into the matter first. "I don't think we're there yet," she said. "Let's work through this process. You guys want to jump to the very end of the line." Sanders also maintained that the investigations would find no efforts by the Trump campaign to collude with Moscow — and suggested that the focus on Russia was being driven by Democrats unhappy with the election result. "The bigger thing here is, if Democrats want to continue to relive their loss every single day, by doing an investigation or review after review, that's fine by us," she added. "We know why we won this race. It's because we had the better candidate with the better message." (John Wagner)

-- Chris Christie said he does not support a special prosecutor to investigate the contacts between Trump's campaign and Russians known to US intelligence. BUT he stressed that the White House should be more cautious about how it deals with the issue, because "PERCEPTION MATTERS." In an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper, the New Jersey governor was critical of a meeting between White House chief of staff Reince Priebus and FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe. Christie, a former federal prosecutor, said FBI Director James Comey should speak to McCabe. "I would have sat them down and said, 'You're not to have those conversations with people who could be in the orbit of an investigation, because you never know where the investigation is going to go,'" he said. Christie also said that the White House faces a "learning curve" with staffers new to government, and that "the sensibilities need to be tightened a little bit at the White House as well."

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) speaks on his mobile phone while walking to a Republican caucus luncheon at the Capitol on Valentine's Day. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

-- But, but, but: The congressional investigations into Russian interference may have been compromised, with their independence now in doubt. The Post's Greg Miller and Adam Entous reported that the Trump administration enlisted both senior members of the intelligence community and Congress in efforts to counter news stories about Trump associates' ties to Russia: "The calls were orchestrated by the White House after unsuccessful attempts by the administration to get senior FBI officials to speak with news organizations and dispute the accuracy of stories on the alleged contacts with Russia. … The officials broadly dismissed Trump associates' contacts with Russia as infrequent and inconsequential. But the officials would not answer substantive questions about the issue, and their comments were not published by The Post and do not appear to have been reported elsewhere."

The effort involved senior lawmakers with access to classified intelligence about Russia, including Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), the chairmen of the Senate and House intelligence committees, Greg and Adam report. "In an interview, Burr acknowledged that he 'had conversations about' Russia-related news reports with the White House and engaged with news organizations to dispute articles by the New York Times and CNN that alleged "repeated" or "constant" contact between Trump campaign members and Russian intelligence operatives. "I've had those conversations," Burr said, adding that he regarded the contacts as appropriate provided that "I felt I had something to share that didn't breach my responsibilities to the committee in an ongoing investigation."

Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said he called CIA Director Mike Pompeo and Burr to express his "grave concerns about what this means for the independence" of the Senate investigation. "I am consulting with members of the Intelligence Committee to determine an appropriate course of action so we can ensure that the American people get the thorough, impartial investigation that they deserve, free from White House interference," Warner said in a statement Friday night.

Bigger picture: "Former intelligence officials expressed concern over the blurring of lines between intelligence and politics, with some recalling Republican accusations that the Obama administration had twisted intelligence in its accounts of the 2012 attacks on U.S. facilities in Benghazi, Libya," Greg and Adam report. "I doubt that there was any enthusiasm from the intelligence leadership to get involved in this in the first place," former CIA director Michael Hayden said in an email. "Think Benghazi here. This is what happens when the intel guys are leaned on for the narrative of the political speakers. The latter have different rules, words, purposes. Getting intel into that mix always ends unhappily, [and] it looks like we just did."

-- Is the Trump administration trying to control and shape intelligence to advance its own political agenda? The Wall Street Journal reported that an intelligence report from the Department of Homeland Security contradicts the White House's assertion that immigrants from seven Muslim-majority countries pose a particular risk of being terrorists and should be blocked from entering the United States. From the paper's story: "The report … came from Homeland Security's Office of Intelligence and Analysis. It said that its staff 'assesses that country of citizenship is unlikely to be a reliable indicator of potential terrorist activity.' The White House on Friday dismissed it as politically motivated and poorly researched. The compilation and disclosure of an intelligence report so directly at odds with top White House priorities marks an unusually sharp rupture between the administration and career public servants."

-- The Post and Journal stories dropped on Friday night and did not get anywhere near the attention they deserved. Trying to control intelligence and rejecting reports created by experts because they don't fit the narrative the White House is trying to push got us into Iraq. Will the mistakes of 2002 be repeated?

Trump's relationship with the media since taking office

INTRIGUE IN AN EMBATTLED WEST WING:

-- Sean Spicer is carefully watching his own staff in an attempt to crack down on leaks coming out of the White House. From Politico's Annie Karni and Alex Isenstadt: "The campaign to sniff out a series of damaging leaks, which Spicer is convinced originated from his communications department, has led to a tense environment in the West Wing. During meetings, the press secretary has repeatedly berated his aides, launching expletive-filled tirades in which he's accused them of disclosing sensitive information to reporters and saying that they've disappointed him." Last week, after Spicer became aware that information had leaked out of a planning meeting with his communications staffers, he reconvened the group in his office – accompanied by White House counsel Don McGahn – and told them to dump their phones on a table for a "phone check" to prove they had nothing to hide. He warned staffers that encrypted and screenshot-protected apps such as Confide were a "violation of the Presidential Records Act."

"I was afraid of Hillary because she was going to let all of the immigrants in," said one voter in Iowa. (Michael S. Williamson/The Washington Post

DISPATCHES FROM TRUMP'S AMERICA:

-- Jenna Johnson spoke to more than 100 Iowans during a X-mile road trip across the Hawkeye State last week, and her story should set off alarm bells in the West Wing:

Of the six swing states that were key to Trump's unexpected presidential win, his margin of victory was highest in Iowa. But at the dawn of his presidency, a state poll finds just 42 percent of Iowans approve of the job he's doing. "While Iowa is still home to many strong supporters who say it's too early to judge him, there are others who say they voted for Trump simply because he wasn't Clinton. Many Iowans worry Trump might cut support for wind-energy and ethanol programs; that his trade policies could hurt farms that export their crops; that mass deportations would empty the state's factories and meat-packing plants; and that a repeal of the Affordable Care Act would yank health insurance away from thousands. While the hyper-simplicity of Trump's campaign promises helped him win over voters, they are no match for the hyper-complexity of Iowa's economy and values."

Some key quotes from Jenna's piece:

"I didn't think he would come in blazing like he has," said [union electrician] Tom Godat, 39, who has three kids and works at the same aluminum rolling plant where his father worked. "It seems almost like a dictatorship at times. He's got a lot of controversial stuff going on and rather than thinking it through, I'm afraid that he's jumping into the frying pan with both feet."
"He's doing what he said he was going to do, that's the biggest thing," said Tyler Schurbon, 23, who describes himself as a "progressive Republican" who falls asleep watching Fox News each night. "A lot of people get into the presidency, and they just completely forget what they talked about." But then...."He's really hurting us, even though everybody around here is conservative," Schurbon said, thumping his bottle of Budweiser on the table to emphasize some of his points. "When you cut off trade, that cuts off everything. Where do our crops go? They don't stay here."
"I don't care what he says, you're attacking Muslims here," said Steventjie Hasna, who is married to a Muslim immigrant who is becoming a U.S. citizen. Her dad voted for Trump. "And that's not American at all. We're American. We stand for American values and that's the exact opposite of what he stands for."
"A lot of people are scared," Ramirez said, a legal resident from Perry who owns a grocery store. "They come to me, and they talk to me, and I say, 'Hey, calm down. Nothing is going to happen, everything is going to be okay. You have to have hope that everything will be okay.'"

Melissa Lopez Josz sits on the couch in her family's trailer in Dover, Florida. (Zack Wittman for The Washington Post)

-- In Florida, fear of the future under Trump has "cast a pall" over tomato farms and strawberry fields in the largely undocumented migrant communities east of Tampa. Robert Samuels reports: "Any day could be when deportations ramp up; that, to them, seemed certain. No one knew when or where. And so the community here is in a state of suspension. Children have stopped playing in parks and the streets and businesses have grown quieter, as many have receded into the background, where they feel safe. 'It's all gringos here,' said Maria Pimentel, owner of the community staple Taqueria El Sol, who said she had never heard so much English in her restaurant in her life. Business had plummeted, she said, because her Spanish-speaking customers were 'scared to come out of their house.' The changed environment made many wonder what would happen to the north this spring and summer, when workers normally move on to Georgia to pick peaches or to Michigan to pick peppers. Many thought they would now stay put. It was safer that way."

MORE IMMIGRATION BACKLASH:

-- Lawyers and activists are advising undocumented immigrants not to enroll in DACA -- a federal deferred-action program created by Obama – over fears that Trump will use their personal information to detain and deport them. David Nakamura reports: "The caution reflects deepening anxiety over sweeping new enforcement guidelines from Homeland Security Secretary John F. Kelly that aim to ramp up deportations of the nation's 11 million undocumented immigrants." While Kelly's directives do not overturn the program, and a spokeswoman for the agency said they've made it "pretty clear" DACA recipients will not be affected, advocates say they have little faith in such promises – and Sean Spicer said on the day of the memos' release that "everybody who is here illegally is subject to removal at any time."

-- Terry McAuliffe said DHS Secretary John Kelly assured him in a private briefing on Sunday that immigration agents are not conducting random raids and will not target undocumented residents unless they are suspected of being involved in illegal activity. McAuliffe's remarks come after the Virginia governor had asked Kelly for a meeting to discuss reports that U.S. agents recently rounded up people outside a church charity shelter in Virginia. (Gregory S. Schneider)

-- Ironically, as DREAMers express fear, hardliners on immigration (including inside the White House!) are increasingly angry that Trump is not doing more to deport them. The New York Times reports: "Inside the White House, the president's advisers are concerned that he has repeatedly referred to Dreamers, many of whom are in their 20s and 30s, in such sympathetic and politically loaded terms. 'Our immigration folks are like, 'Stop calling them kids,' Spicer said." Two quotes from key Trump supporters:

"He's really starting to anger his base with this," said Roy Beck, the president of NumbersUSA, a group that works to reduce immigration. "I've got people really angry and talking about 'He's double crossed us, he's deceived us.' You could say that the troops are restless, and I can't blame them."
"His promise on DACA was pretty clear and unequivocal," said Mark Krikorian of the Center for Immigration Studies. That would be a "pretty basic thing" to renege on, he said, "right in the beginning of an administration."

-- A top French historian, an expert on the Holocaust, was detained at a Houston airport for more than 10 hours -- and nearly deported – for no apparent reason last week after traveling to the U.S. to speak at an academic symposium. Officials said the Egyptian-born French citizen was "mistakenly detained" by U.S. immigration authorities, before the university hosting the symposium sprang into action to organize his release. (James McAuley)

-- Beloved children's author Mem Fox was detained and "aggressively questioned" for two hours after traveling to the U.S. to give a speech about the importance of tolerance and acceptance. Ironically, Fox's books focus on celebrating the humanity "common to all children," regardless of birthplace or skin color. She says the trip would have been her 117th visit to the United States, but is unlikely to return after witnessing how travelers were treated. (Nora Krug)

-- A 21-year-old Syrian cinematographer who won an Oscar on Sunday night for a documentary on the White Helmet rescue group was barred from entering the U.S. to attend the ceremony, after having been granted a visa specifically for that purpose. (Amy B Wang)

After DNC election, will Ellison supporters respond to his calls for unity?

A NEW DNC CHAIR:

-- Former labor secretary Thomas Perez was elected DNC chairman on Saturday, narrowly edging out Rep. Keith Ellison in a battle that largely came to symbolize the fate of the beleaguered party in the age of President Trump. David Weigel reports: "Ellison's defeat was a blow to the party's liberal wing, personified by activists, labor leaders and organizers, many of whom had supported the presidential bid of Sen. Bernie Sanders and had come to Atlanta to cheer Ellison on. Many of them warned that by picking Perez, the party was alienating the growing 'resistance' that has organized against Trump. The race was close enough that it required a second round of balloting, with Perez winning 235 of 435 votes cast. With tensions still high as the result was announced, nine Ellison supporters chanted 'Party for the people, not big money!' and stormed out of the room."

Weigel, one of just two reporters who went to every DNC forum, lays out a few key factors that blunted Ellison's momentum in the final weeks of the race:

DNC members were not ready to reject the Obama legacy. "… For Brazile and other Democrats, the death blows to the party's 2016 campaign were struck by Russian hacking and by [James Comey]. They have little time for the activists who say that the Democratic primary between … was 'rigged' — the 'evidence,' the establishment wing says, comes from emails hacked from the DNC and the Clinton campaign and released at damaging times to divide the party."
Perez closed the ideological gap in the party, and Ellison let him: "Ellison would have struggled to run to Perez's left, and he largely did not try. Having also discouraged supporters from calling DNC members to back him, Ellison framed the 'Hillary-Bernie rematch' narrative of the race as a dishonest creation of the media. Given the makeup of the DNC, that might have been Ellison's best strategy. But it left him in a bind."
Trump smoothed over the party's differences: "Over the last month of the race, DNC members became less nervous about the implicit threat of the Ellison campaign. How many Sanders supporters would really walk away from electoral politics if Ellison lost? Very few would quit forever; some would quit, then come back as Trump's rampage continued; most would stay involved, if at a lower level."

-- "Democratic lawmakers in at least 30 U.S. states are either unveiling or highlighting legislation this week aimed at [Trump's] working-class voters, in a nationwide coordinated rebuttal to the agenda the president will outline in his first joint address to Congress on Feb. 28." USA Today's Heidi M Przybyla reports: It's an attempt to form the legislative spine of a state-level resistance to Trump's policies, [said] Nick Rathod, executive director of State Innovation Exchange Action, which is overseeing the initiative … The timing creates a juxtaposition between Democratic economic security prescriptions for workers, such as raising the minimum wage and paid family leave, and Trump tax reform and federal budget policies that, Democrats say, are at odds with his populist campaign oath to prioritize 'forgotten' Americans from the factory floors of the Rust Belt to the sawmills of the Mountain West."

John Kerry, Jack Lew and Max Baucus visit the Great Wall of China in 2014. (Andy Wong/AP)

THE WORLD:

-- Former U.S. ambassador to China Max Baucus said that America needs to stop getting "pushed around" by the country and to develop a long-term strategy to deal with Beijing's rise. Simon Denyer reports: "In an interview … Baucus expressed frustration with the Obama administration's lack of strategic vision and its weakness when it came to China. But he also accused President Trump of blundering around without even a basic understanding of the country. China, Baucus said, has a long-term strategic vision to build up its economic might and global influence. The United States, by contrast, often appears distracted by problems in the Middle East[:] 'The Washington foreign-policy establishment tends to put China on another shelf, to deal with it later,' he said. 'We don't seem to have a long-term strategy, and that's very much to our disadvantage.'"

Baucus said he worked hard to prevent both countries from falling into the so-called "Thucydides trap," or the theory that an established power feels threatened by a rising power, leading to a rivalry that often descends into war. But doing so, he said, wasn't always easy: "It was very frustrating," he said. "The White House would make a decision, and we'd roll our eyeballs, and say: 'This isn't going to work, partly because we're backing off, we're being weak." And he said he was "shocked" to hear Trump speak by phone with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and publicly question adherence to the one-China policy. That, he said, was a "major blunder" and "a huge mistake."

-- In Mexico, Trump's taunts are stirring a level of nationalism the country hasn't seen in years. Nick Miroff reports: "Confrontation with the U.S. is so central to Mexican history there's an institution dedicated to the trauma. Remember the Alamo? They do here — as the prelude to a string of defeats, invasions and territorial losses that left Mexico wounded and diminished, its national identity forged by grievance. [Now] … public outrage at Trump has sunk those relations to their lowest point in decades. For Mexicans, the problem is not merely the wall. They know their country is poorer, more violent and less law-abiding than the United States. If Trump had announced plans for tougher border security, many Mexicans would have understood … But when they hear Trump boasting he will make Mexico pay for the wall, and the wild cheering in response, they recognize an unmistakable attempt to humiliate them. It is American nationalism at Mexico's expense, and it stings in a deep, atavistic way, like a childhood bully coming back to beat you up again. ... 'We've always looked up to the United States,' said Sergio Pacheco, a 56-year-old mechanic who works for American Airlines. 'Now, after all this time, we're realizing that you don't really like us.'"

Shanty dwellers living inside a cemetery look at bodies being buried in Manila. Many bodies of victims of extrajudicial killings lay unclaimed in a morgue as funerals have had to deal with an upsurge in fatalities from the drug war. (Dondi Tawatao/Getty Images)

-- "Rodrigo Duterte's next target: 9-year-old children," by Emily Rauhala: "Once, when Rodrigo Duterte got to talking about his anti-drug campaign, he mused about murdering his children. If his son used drugs, he said in April, he would kill him himself. But seven months and about 7,000 deaths into his self-proclaimed "drug war," the Philippine president's children are alive and well. The same cannot be said for thousands of Filipino children and youths. Duterte's war on drugs is quickly morphing into a campaign against disadvantaged kids. Since he came to power last July promising to 'kill all' of the country's criminals, some of the Philippines' youngest and most vulnerable citizens have literally been caught in the crossfire, with children as young as 4 and 5 shot dead. Now Duterte and his political allies are backing a bill that would lower the age of criminal responsibility from 15 to 9, giving a police force known for violent impunity more room to target 'suspects' who still have baby teeth."

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

Former President Obama took in a showing of Arthur Miller's "The Price" in New York City, and had this to show for it:

Bernie trolled Trump after the president once again tweeted about crowd sizes:

After Trump said Saturday he will not attend the White House Correspondents' Association dinner, Karen Tumulty flagged this Nixon memo from 1971:

Twitter was eager to remind Sean Spicer how strongly he'd disputed a CBS report that the Navy secretary nominee would withdraw -- only to have him later withdraw -- just the latest blow to his credibility as press secretary:

Spicer and New York Times scribe Glenn Thrush got into a Twitter throwdown:

Spicer told his staff that they cannot use messaging apps like Confide, but New York Magazine reported that he appears to be on the app:

NYT reporters reacted to this full-page ad in their paper:

This Black-ish actress marks the fifth anniversary of Trayvon Martin's death:

Stars at last night's Oscars wore blue ACLU ribbons:

Actress Ava DuVerney also chose to make a (fashion) statement:

Moonlight's Mahershala Ali won a best supporting actor Oscar:

From The Post's fashion critic:

A cat at the Oscars: good or bad omen?

Trump posted a picture with his grandkids:

And Ivanka and Jared's night on the town:

GOOD READS FROM ELSEWHERE:

-- The New York Times, "Trump Embraces 'Enemy of the People,' a Phrase With a Fraught History," by Andrew Higgins: "The phrase was too toxic even for Nikita Khrushchev, a war-hardened veteran communist not known for squeamishness. As leader of the Soviet Union, he demanded an end to the use of the term 'enemy of the people' because 'it eliminated the possibility of any kind of ideological fight.' 'The formula 'enemy of the people,'' Mr. Khrushchev told the Soviet Communist Party in a 1956 speech denouncing Stalin's cult of personality, 'was specifically introduced for the purpose of physically annihilating such individuals' who disagreed with the supreme leader. It is difficult to know if [Trump] is aware of the historic resonance of the term, a label generally associated with despotic communist governments … But his decision to unleash the terminology has left some historians scratching their heads. Why would the elected leader of a democratic nation embrace a label that, after the death of Stalin, even the Soviet Union found to be too freighted with sinister connotations?"

"By using the phrase and placing himself in such infamous company, at least in his choice of vocabulary to attack his critics, Mr. Trump has demonstrated … that the language of 'autocracy, of state nationalism is always the same regardless of the country, and no nation is exempt.'"

-- Politico, "The World's Most Important Workout," by Ben Schreckinger: "In the early hours of Nov. 9, as stock markets began to rally on the news of [Trump's] upset win, there was another dramatic spike afoot. Interest in the bone density and cholesterol levels of an 83-year-old woman from Flatbush, New York, was also soaring. … Asked earlier this month about the most important person in her life, [Ruth Bader] Ginsburg, who was widowed in 2010 … responded, 'My personal trainer.' That would be Bryant Johnson, 52. You could think of Johnson's sturdy limbs as a fourth branch of government, grafted onto the judiciary, keeping it aloft … I determined to undergo the workout myself, and to write about it. To meet a sufficient evidentiary standard to prove this actually happened, we would also have to film it. I'm no athlete, but I'm young and reasonably fit. I thought the workout would be pattycake, but it was much harder than I expected. Ginsburg's personal trainer, it turns out, is no joke."

-- ICYMI, "I Was a Muslim in Trump's White House," by Rumana Ahmed in The Atlantic: "In 2011, I was hired, straight out of college, to work at the White House and eventually the National Security Council. I am a hijab-wearing Muslim woman––I was the only hijabi in the West Wing––and the Obama administration always made me feel welcome and included. Like most of my fellow American Muslims, I spent much of 2016 watching with consternation as [Trump] vilified our community. Despite this––or because of it––I thought I should try to stay on the NSC staff during the Trump Administration, in order to give the new president and his aides a more nuanced view of Islam, and of America's Muslim citizens. I lasted eight days.

"The evening before I left, bidding farewell to some of my colleagues, many of whom have also since left, I notified Trump's senior NSC communications adviser, Michael Anton, of my departure … He looked at me and said nothing. It was only later that I learned he authored an essay … attacking diversity as a 'weakness,' and Islam as 'incompatible with the modern West.' My whole life and everything I have learned proves that facile statement wrong."

-- Politico, "Jewish Republicans torn over Trump," by Alex Isenstadt: "An uncomfortable debate broke out this weekend as the most prominent group of Jewish Republican donors in the country gathered at Sheldon Adelson's lavish Venetian hotel: Should criticism of [Trump] be allowed? Many Jews have been angered by Trump's delayed response to anti-Semitic acts and other perceived infractions. But at a closed-door session on Friday, Beverly Hills homemaker Elissa Czuker, … questioned whether it was appropriate that some board members of the Republican Jewish Coalition had publicly called out the new GOP president. Others, including Florida dental insurance executive Jeffrey Feingold, pushed back on the idea of silencing Trump's critics … The tug-of-war underscored a growing divide over Trump among Republican Jews, a group that counts Adelson as its de facto leader. Many are elated by their party's stunning election win … But in conversations here over the weekend, attendees conveyed frustration over Trump's lack of clarity on the Middle East peace process, his failure until recently to respond forcefully to a rash of anti-Semitic acts since his election, and his administration's decision to not mention Jews in a statement commemorating Holocaust Remembrance Day."

-- New York Times, "To Battle Fake News, Ukrainian Show Features Nothing but Lies," by Andrew E. Kramer: "The studio lights dim, and the anchor taps a stack of papers on her desk and directs a steely gaze toward the television cameras. What appears to be a nightly newscast is about to begin, only with a very Ukrainian twist: Everything is a lie, from start to finish. 'Welcome to 'StopFake,' the place where we set the record straight on fakes about Ukraine,' the anchor, Margo Gontar, intones. In other parts of the world, viewers might suspect the evening news is just a bunch of lies, but watching the weekly broadcast of 'StopFake News,' they can be certain of it. The group is highly respected in journalistic circles here in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, for its specialty of debunking fake news. Ukraine has become a testing ground 'for a lot of Russia's evil strategies,' Oksana Syroyid, a deputy speaker of Ukraine's Parliament … 'Unfortunately … Ukraine's experience can be used by Europe and America to understand the real Russian threat.'"

HOT ON THE LEFT:

"Birth control coverage is in serious danger," from ThinkProgress: "The Trump administration may weaken or eliminate the provision for full coverage of contraception in the Affordable Care Act, experts say, and it may not require any action from Republican allies in Congress. The provision that allows women to receive full coverage for birth control — including insertion and removal of an IUD — could be eliminated or at least weakened through regulations, guidance, or law. Reproductive rights advocates are also waiting to see whether the Trump administration will continue to defend the mandate in the courts on Tuesday. [Meanwhile] … Health and Human Services Tom Price has a record of dismissing women's need for full coverage of birth control. In an interview with ThinkProgress in 2012, Price said, 'Bring me one woman who has been left behind. … The fact of the matter is this is a trampling on religious freedom and religious liberty in this country.'"

HOT ON THE RIGHT:

"Transgender wrestler Mack Beggs ended contentious weekend with state title, but the controversy isn't going anywhere," from Sports Day Dallas News: "A few hours after winning a state championship, Mack Beggs came walking out of a conference room, flanked by his coach, with the entire Euless Trinity girls team in tow. Beggs, a 17-year-old transgender wrestler from Euless Trinity, had been the topic of this weekend's state championships. Debates rose up among coaches, parents, and fans about whether Beggs, who is transitioning from female to male, should be able to compete in the Class 6A 110-pound girls division after undergoing testosterone treatments. UIL rules forbid Beggs from competing against boys. Saturday was the end of a two-week whirlwind for Beggs that started with a lawsuit filed on Feb. 7 by Coppell lawyer Jim Baudhuin asking the UIL to suspend Beggs because his testosterone treatments provided Beggs an unfair advantage The UIL legislative council meets in June, where a rule change could take place …"

DAYBOOK:

At the White House: Trump will address the National Governors Association meeting before leading a listening session with health insurance company CEOs. In the afternoon, Trump will be joined by Pence for lunch with UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, as well as a meeting with Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell. Later, Trump will meet with Rex Tillerson and have dinner with regional press affiliates.

After joining Trump for his morning and mid-afternoon meetings, Pence will participate in a "Historically Black Colleges and Universities listening session" at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building and a legislative affairs reception at the Vice President's residence.

On Capitol Hill: The Senate will convene at noon, and proceed to executive session to consider the nomination of Wilbur Ross to be Secretary of Commerce.

QUOTE OF THE DAY:

White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders explained Trump's decision to skip the Correspondent's Dinner: "I think it's … kind of naive of us to think that we can all walk into a room for a couple of hours and pretend that some of that tension isn't there," she said on ABC. "You know, one of the things we say in the South [is] 'If a Girl Scout egged your house, would you buy cookies from her?' I think that this is a pretty similar scenario."

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

-- Get ready for another roller-coaster weather ride of a week. The Capital Weather Gang forecasts: "It's a chilly start, with temperatures in the 30s across the region, but winds start to come in from the south this afternoon (about 5 to 10 mph), pushing temperatures well into the 50s. Clouds tend to increase as the day wears on, and we can't rule out a sprinkle, which prevents most locations from hitting 60."

-- Larry Hogan's approval rating dipped slightly in a fresh Goucher College poll released Monday, though the first-term GOP governor still appears poised for an easy reelection bid in 2018. Josh Hicks has more from the Maryland poll: "The survey showed Hogan with a 63 percent approval rating among Maryland adults, below the lofty 70 percent he had in September and identical to his rating at this time last year." It's unclear whether Hogan has taken a hit from Democratic attempts to tie him to Trump, who is deeply unpopular in the state: while 55 percent of respondents said their opinion of Trump will influence their vote in the gubernatorial election "to some extent," 42 percent said it would not. And a strong 57 percent majority said they lean towards voting for Hogan in 2018 or "will definitely do so," while 33 percent said they plan to vote for someone else.

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

Our video team made a three-minute highlight reel from the Oscar's last night:

The craziest ending to an Oscar night, plus the other things that happened

Iranian director Ashgar Farhadi won the Oscar for best foreign language film for "The Salesman," but he did not attend the ceremony in protest of Trump's travel ban. Instead, two Iranian American engineers, Anousheh Ansari and Firouz Naderi, accepted the award on his behalf: