Biden is counting job gains before they hatch Regular readers know we are often wary when a president proclaims success in creating jobs. Presidential decisions and new laws can certainly impact job creation — over time. But it is hard to disentangle the importance of those factors from broader economic forces that are beyond a president's control. That's why it's often misleading to measure job creation by presidential term — an artificial metric beloved by presidents and the public alike. For instance, President Biden tweeted: "Right now, I have the strongest record of growing manufacturing jobs in modern history." Biden is talking about the monthly job-creation average over the entire presidencies. This is a strange way to do it. It mixes the records of presidents who served one or two terms — or less. Biden of course has not yet served two years, meaning he has far fewer months to divide into the total. A lot could change in the next two-plus years — which is apparently why the tweet includes the phrase "right now." Biden is following a playbook used by Donald Trump — who used similar math to make a claim in his 2020 State of the Union address. His line brought bad karma. Within weeks, the economy collapsed because of the coronavirus pandemic and unemployment soared, rendering his claim incorrect. Biden earned Two Pinocchios. Enjoy this newsletter? Forward it to someone else who'd like it! If this email was forwarded to you, sign up here. Did you hear something fact-checkable? Send it here; we'll check it out. A viral Lincoln Project ad makes a false claim about Trump The Lincoln Project, formed by a group of disaffected Republicans, loves to needle former president Donald Trump. A recent ad claimed that "every dollar you sent him [to combat alleged election fraud] paid to keep his shady business empire and lavish lifestyle going." The ad aired on cable in Bedminster, N.J., where Trump has a home, and the former president furiously claimed he would sue. But after checking campaign finance records we couldn't find any evidence to support the ad's core claim — that Trump has diverted all of the contributors' money for his own benefit. The burden of proof lies with the ad-maker. We contacted spokespeople for the Lincoln Project via email, repeatedly, asking for evidence to support the ad's claim. We received no answer. Then we called Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson, who posted a video Thursday daring Trump to follow through on his threat to sue. Wilson answered our call but when he heard we had questions about the accuracy of the ad, he responded he was about to get on a Zoom call and hung up. He then also did not respond to text messages or emails. As we have well documented, Trump has a habit of making incendiary claims with no proof. But that does not give his opponents license to use the same playbook. The Lincoln Project earned Four Pinocchios. You can reach us via email, Twitter (@GlennKesslerWP and @AdriUsero) or Facebook. Read about our process and rating scale here, and sign up for the newsletter here. Scroll down for this week's Pinocchio roundup. | 
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