GOP nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton at the second presidential debate on Oct. 9 in St. Louis. (Patrick Semansky/AP) By Jim Tankersley Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's advisers believe his tax plan will supercharge economic growth, and they have long criticized any analysis of the plan that does not adopt that view. It's why they were so dismissive of the Tax Policy Center's recent finding that his plan would pile an additional $6.2 trillion on the national debt over the next decade; Trump's team called the report a "fraudulent analysis" because it didn't include what economists call a dynamic score, which is to say, an estimate of how the plan would affect growth. Almost on cue, two new "dynamic" analyses of the Trump plan have appeared in recent days. One of them suggests that growth effects would make his proposals more affordable, though still expensive. The other suggests that the Trump plan would actually slow economic growth in the long run. The rosier scenario for Trump comes from economists at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, who built an open-source model for estimating the effects of tax policy changes. Their analysis estimates that Trump's plans to cut corporate taxes would not cost the United States as much as others have projected — in part because cutting the corporate rate would encourage multinational companies to classify more of their income as domestic, and taxable under current law. Read the rest on Wonkblog. |
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