News Reporter: The Daily 202: How a 12-term congressman is trying to survive the Trump headwinds in Florida

How a 12-term congressman is trying to survive the Trump headwinds in Florida

John Mica greets constituents at a parade in Florida on Saturday. (Photo by James Hohmann)

With Breanne Deppisch

THE BIG IDEA:

WINTER PARK, Florida—October has been full of surprises. Donald Trump's 1995 tax records came out on the 1st of the month. The video of the Republican nominee bragging about how he can kiss and grope women without their permission because he is a celebrity emerged on the 7th. A dozen women then came forward to accuse Trump of touching them inappropriately. The Obama administration's announcement one week ago that health care premiums will rise by 25 percent would be the big surprise in any normal election. But this, of course, is not a normal election. Then James Comey set off a firestorm with his letter to Congress on Friday about re-opening the FBI's investigation. What might yet happen on this final day of October?

Republicans, struggling to hold their majority in the Senate and limit their losses in the House, have been riding this rollercoaster and repeating the serenity prayer. To a person, they celebrated the Comey news as a lifeline. Most still believe Hillary Clinton will win in eight days, but strategists and members in tough races think that the FBI inquiry gives credence to their argument that Clinton needs a check and balance. They also hope that it drives moderate Republicans who might have stayed home to the polls.

By taking the spotlight off their polarizing nominee, however briefly, the news allowed Republicans to play offense this weekend – a rarity in 2016.

"That was a nice little break for Trump, my God," said Rep. John Mica, a Republican who has represented a suburban Orlando district since 1992 and now finds himself in one of the costliest and most competitive House races in the country. "The way I figure it is Comey had to get it out because he knows we're continuing the investigation. What if the election had gone by and he had not revealed it, and she was president-elect?"

Mica's challenger, Stephanie Murphy, is a first-time candidate who did not decide to run until this June – after polling showed Trump had made him vulnerable. She was also motivated by the massacre at the Pulse nightclub – literally across the street from the district's boundary – which ignited a local debate over gun control and LGBT rights.

Murphy and her allies have been hammering the powerful congressman with ads linking him to The Donald, but on Saturday she twice declined to discuss Clinton's emails or defend her amidst the FBI reopening its inquiry. "I'm really just focused on the issues that are important to the voters in central Florida," she said during an interview in a conference room at her headquarters in downtown Orlando.

When I pointed out that she had spent the preceding four minutes attacking Mica for supporting Trump, she replied: "For our campaign, we're really just focused on the issues that are important here."

Does that mean the emails are not important? "I think people see me as 'Stephanie Murphy for Congress.' I don't think there's that connection to the top of the ticket," she protested. "The reason we're connecting Congressman Mica to the top of his ticket is because he's saying and doing a lot of the same things."

Stephanie Murphy talks with volunteers during a phone bank at her headquarters in Orlando. (James Hohmann)

Mica won reelection in 2014 with 72 percent of the vote, but now he might be in the swingiest House battleground in the swingiest swing state. Court-ordered redistricting brought downtown Orlando into the Seventh District last year. So one-quarter of the voters are new to him. One-third of the new district is non-white. Democrats have a slight voter registration advantage. Barack Obama even campaigned in the district Friday night, with a rally at the University of Central Florida (which has 54,000 undergrads).

Trump is struggling in suburban districts like this one across the country, and it will prove costly for his adopted party. To get the 30 seats needed to win the House, Democrats must topple some entrenched lawmakers like Mica. (My colleague Dave Weigel filed a dispatch this morning from San Diego, where Darrell Issa – another veteran Republican – is also in an unexpectedly tough fight. Read it here.)

Mica talks with his door knockers in Longwood. (James Hohmann)

-- On the ground in Florida, both sides agree that Mica is outperforming Trump, but they disagree on how much. The congressman says his internal polling has him up a few points. Murphy says her polling has her up a few points.

Mica believes he can withstand some Trump drag but recognizes there is a limit. "We think that we're holding our own," he said during a sit-down at Anna's Polish Restaurant in Winter Park, where he lives. "We do eight to 10 points better than the presidential." (For what it's worth, Murphy told me her internal polling has had Clinton ahead by double digits in the district and that, even with the race tightening statewide, her most recent survey still puts Clinton ahead by 9 points.)

Asked whether Trump might cost him his seat, Mica expressed sincere uncertainty. "I don't know," he said, pausing to take a bite of a sauerkraut and mushroom pierogi. "Trump is pretty strong in Central Florida. He was behind and then he's come up. So I just don't know. We're concentrating quite a bit on the independents and the soft D's. … We just haven't responded to all the attacks. I don't really want to spend all my time on defense. … We've had some people call and say, 'Is it okay if we put up your sign next to a Hillary sign?' Fine with me!"

Mica argued that the mainstream media narrative underplays the extent of Clinton's unpopularity. Modeling turnout is far more difficult than usual this cycle because certain base voters on both sides will ultimately stay home, he predicts, but it's not clear how many. "It's going to be weird at the polls," the congressman said. "Who turns out?"

This is a top of mind concern for Democrats too. Rep. Seth Moulton flew down from Boston to campaign with Murphy this weekend. Speaking with two dozen volunteers at a phone bank, he stressed: "How much Hillary wins Florida by makes a big difference down the ticket." A few hours later, a poll from Marist University, NBC and the Wall Street Journal put Clinton up just 1 point. And the New York Times, in partnership with Siena College, released its own poll giving Trump a 4 point lead in the Sunshine State.

Mica visits a clinic that tests for the Zika virus as part of a Puerto Rican outreach effort on Saturday afternoon. (James Hohmann)

-- Mica is the consummate insider in this year of the outsider, and he's using that to his advantage the best he can. On Saturday morning at 10 a.m., he greeted 80 volunteers at a commuter rail train station in Longwood that was built a few years ago because he arranged for the federal money. The former chairman of the House Transportation Committee played a leadership role in bringing the whole SunRail project to fruition. He unapologetically boasted about the "earmarks" that made the beautiful station possible.

The congressman invited me to shadow him for the day, and he and his wife Pat gave me a ride to his second stop of the day – a parade in Winter Park. As he drove us around in a rented silver Prius, unstaffed, he showed off various road projects. He pointed out a major overpass that he said he got the funds for. He pointed out construction work to expand Interstate 4. He talked about a program to synchronize the traffic lights of 27 local jurisdictions. "I made some money available in the last transportation bill for deploying the technology," he said. "You can talk about national issues, but I think the light synchronization is probably the most important."

He pointed out "a strip joint" by the county GOP headquarters and joked about how a redevelopment project he supported drove several other such establishments out of business. "You see why my wife won't allow me to Twitter," he said. "I think I am one of only three or four members of Congress that don't Twitter." "You don't have to Twitter, my dear husband," Pat Mica deadpanned. "You just talk!"

Mica campaigns with his wife Pat. (James Hohmann)

The 73-year-old has been engaged in local politics longer than his 38-year-old opponent has been alive. He served in the state House during the 1970s. At one point during another drive later Saturday, he pointed out an old office building where he helped run Paula Hawkins's 1980 U.S. Senate campaign, along with Charlie Black and Dick Morris. Hawkins rode to office on Ronald Reagan's coattails that year, the first woman ever elected to a full Senate term without a family political connection. Mica moved to Washington to be the senator's chief of staff. A decade later, he ran for Congress himself.

He's betting that the relationships he's made over the years translate into a fair amount of split-ticket voting. A surprising number of the 80 volunteers who came to that train station to knock doors for Mica are city councilmen, county commissioners, school board members or former state legislators. "He's on a first-name basis with everyone in local government," said Win Adams, 74, a former Seminole County commissioner. "We ask him for anything, and he's always there. I've never seen her," added Brian Sackett, 63, the former mayor of Longwood.

After the 2010 round of redistricting, Mica faced a primary against another Republican member of the congressional delegation. Sandy Adams ran hard to this right. "She had Sarah Palin, Joe Arpaio, Phyllis Schlafly and Allen West," Mica recalled. "Oh my God, the list was very long! But every one of her surrogates was from outside the district. I had the mayors and the local electeds." Mica whooped Adams by 22 points.

Because of these relationships and his clout, national Democrats struggled to recruit a credible challenger until the day before the filing deadline. "My opponent isn't even known by people here," Mica said, dismissing Murphy as the daughter-in-law of a deep-pocketed Democratic donor. His wife cut him off. "The opponent is really the DCCC," she said. "Her campaign is being run out of Washington." "Nice lady," the congressman said, jumping back in, "but she's not ready for prime-time."

Murphy talks with supporters at her office. (James Hohmann)

-- Stephanie Murphy has an impressive life story. She escaped Vietnam by boat as a refugee with her family. She was a Defense Department contractor and now teaches at a local college. I asked her about the critique that she does not have deep relationships with local leaders. She said their votes count no more than anyone else's. "That almost feels like an elitist comment. And it's a little old school," she said. "One thing he says to me is, 'I've never seen you before.' Well, congressman, we live in a district of 750,000 people. That you haven't seen a woman in her 30s who teaches full time at Rollins College and has two small children is not an astonishing idea, nor is it a disqualifying factor! I do plenty of work in the non-profit, volunteer space."

When Murphy announced in June, her first private poll showed that only 6 percent of registered voters recognized her name. Now it is 66 percent, and Mica hovers around 80 percent. "You all have increased my name ID in this district," she told the group phone banking for her. "Now I can't go out without my make-up on!!"

Murphy explained that a third of the electorate in Florida's Seventh is politically independent, and that residents are more transient than Mica understands. "We are a district that is wealthier, younger, more diverse and more educated than the average district in Florida," she said.

Democrats also argue that Mica's bring-home-the-bacon pitch rings hollow in the post-earmarks era. He is termed out as chairman of the Transportation committee. Funding formulas now drive most federal appropriations for road projects. "At a bare minimum, your representative should be bringing home federal dollars," Murphy said in the interview.

-- Gun control is a major issue in this race. The shooting at the Pulse nightclub in June, which killed 49 and injured many more, happened just outside the boundary of the district. Mica talks about the attack by Omar Mateen in national security terms. Murphy uses it to call for stricter background checks.

The gun issue comes up as one of the top three voter concerns in Democratic polling of the district, with large majorities supportive of stricter laws. Murphy likened being in Orlando right now to being in D.C. after the Sept. 11 attacks, and she attacks Mica for taking money from the NRA after the incident as part of her stump speech. Accompanying her at the phone bank Saturday was Christine Leinonen, whose 32-year-old son was among those murdered at the nightclub.

-- Mica acknowledges that he was slow in ramping up for what has become the toughest general election race of his career. His wife was diagnosed with colon cancer last October. Pat had surgery and then underwent six months of chemotherapy that ended the week of July Fourth. "It probably slowed me down a little bit the past year because I paid a lot of attention to her," Mica said. "We arranged her treatments so she had them on Monday mornings before I had to go to Washington. So I was with her for all of them. It really refocuses your attention. We've been married 44 years. … Every week she's gotten stronger."

Because he did not build a massive war chest, Mica and his allies are now being outspent. At the train station, he pulled out his iPhone to read aloud an email from his media buyer that laid out how many points both sides have on the air. "It's a least $5 million they've spent against us," he tells his volunteers, trying to motivate them to knock harder.

Mica participates in a parade in Winter Park. (James Hohmann)

-- Mica has lost track of how many times he's ridden in the Halloween parade in his hometown over the years, even as the complexion of the community changed. During our drive to the staging area, he spilled a large McDonald's ice tea on his dress shirt. So he gamely threw on a black blazer and held a bag of candy to cover the stain. He took off his wingtips to stand on the leather seat of a supporter's red Corvette. Over a two-mile stretch, he threw Dum Dum lollipops to children.

A sheriff's deputy blocking off traffic yelled to thank Mica for all he's done to help out the department. "See that," the congressman said, turning to me as I chased after him. "That was unsolicited!"

At the end of the route, he thanked three other cops doing traffic control. "See you guys next year," Mica said. "I hope!!"

As the Corvette turned right off the parade route, the congressman passed over a bike trail. A middle-aged woman was cycling. He waved at her, and she stopped. "How do you like that trail?" he said. "I love it," she replied. "You know, I worked on making this trail possible," he told her. "I don't doubt it for a minute," she replied. He smiled. "I'm not voting for you though," she added. Then she kept biking. Mica shrugged his shoulders.

Eight more days…

Welcome to the Daily 202, PowerPost's morning newsletter.
With contributions from Elise Viebeck (@eliseviebeck).

President Obama during a ceremony for James Comey in 2013. (Charles Dharapak/AP)

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:

-- Federal investigators obtained a warrant to begin searching a trove of emails from top Clinton aide Huma Abedin, as prosecutors scramble to assess their significance before Election Day. There are also reports that FBI agents stumbled upon the trove "WEEKS" ago. From Matt Zapotosky, Ellen Nakashima and Rosalind S. Helderman: "People familiar with the case said that agents on the Clinton email team had known about the messages since soon after New York FBI agents seized a computer related to their investigation into [Anthony] Weiner, who has been accused of exchanging explicit messages with a 15-year-old girl. Officials said the agents probing Clinton's private email server didn't tell the director immediately because they were trying to better assess what they had. [Now, investigators] will look at whether the newly uncovered emails contain classified information or other evidence that could help advance the Clinton email probe. It is possible, though, that the messages could be duplicative of others already recovered elsewhere or that they could be a collection of benign, personal notes."

How long will it take? Investigators said they found 650,000 emails on the shared computer, with underlying data suggesting "thousands" of those messages could have been sent to or from Clinton's private server. It will take a week, at minimum, to determine whether the emails are work-related, or how many are duplicates of emails already reviewed by the department.

The disclosure lays bare longtime tensions inside the bureau and the Justice Department over how to investigate Clinton. From Devlin Barrett in the Wall Street Journal: "New details show that senior law-enforcement officials repeatedly voiced skepticism of the strength of the evidence in a bureau investigation of the Clinton Foundation, sought to condense what was at times a sprawling cross-country effort, and … told agents to limit their pursuit of the case. The latest development began in early October when New York-based FBI officials notified Andrew McCabe, the bureau's second-in-command, that while investigating Mr. Weiner ... they had recovered a laptop. Many of the 650,000 emails on the computer, they said, were from the accounts of Ms. Abedin. … The probe of the foundation began more than a year ago to determine whether financial crimes or influence peddling occurred related to the charity. Some investigators grew frustrated, viewing FBI leadership as uninterested in probing the charity ... Others involved disagreed sharply, defending FBI bosses and saying Mr. McCabe in particular was caught between an increasingly acrimonious fight for control between the Justice Department and FBI agents pursuing the Clinton Foundation case."

The FBI's New York field office was one of a few that were "looking into topics" that touched on the Clinton Foundation's work. From Zapotosky, Helderman and Tom Hamburger: "Agents in New York wanted to examine allegations of corruption and conflicts of interest that have swirled around the charitable organization of the Clinton family. ... The Clinton Foundation said it was never contacted by the FBI, suggesting the bureau's efforts were in a preliminary stage as prosecutors weighed in. But agents in New York have sought to keep their inquiries alive, feuding with the Justice Department about the lengths to which they can go."

Justice Department officials could have overruled Comey's decision to notify Congress about the renewed email investigation, but stopped short of ordering him to back down. From Sari Horwitz: "Their decision partly reflected the institutional power of the FBI director, Comey's personality and the political realities they were facing. … In this case, officials said Comey put the department in an untenable position by informing them that he was sending a letter to Congress because he had an obligation to lawmakers or they would feel misled. 'At the end of the day, if you have the FBI director telling Justice that he has an obligation to tell Congress, there is no way you can direct the FBI to do otherwise,' said one official. 'That's too fraught. You can't direct someone to withhold information from Congress.'"

-- Trump has taken to accusing Clinton of "willful and deliberate criminal conduct." "In the diamond business, in the coal business … they go, 'This could be the mother lode!" Trump said yesterday in Las Vegas. "This could be the 33,000 that are missing. This could be the 20,000 that are missing. ... I would think they have some real bad ones, but we're gonna find out...Maybe not." (Sean Sullivan, John Wagner and Abby Phillip)

Eric Holder and James Comey in 2014 (Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA)

-- Eric Holder rebukes Comey in an op-ed for today's Post, writing that his Friday announcement violates long-standing Justice Department policies and traditions: "I fear he has unintentionally and negatively affected public trust in both the Justice Department and the FBI. And he has allowed — again without improper motive — misinformation to be spread by partisans with less pure intentions. I served with Jim Comey and I know him well. This is a very difficult piece for me to write. But good men make mistakes … In this instance, he has committed a serious error with potentially severe implications."

-- A bipartisan group of nearly 100 former Justice Department officials, including Holder and former deputy A.G. Larry Thompson, criticized Comey's actions in an open letter: "Director Comey's letter is inconsistent with prevailing Department policy, and it breaks with longstanding practices followed by officials of both parties during past elections," the group says in the letter.

-- Harry Reid said he thinks Comey "may have broken the law" by violating the Hatch Act, which prevents FBI officials from using their official authority to influence an election: "I have been a supporter of yours in the past," the Senate Minority Leader said. "When Republicans filibustered your nomination and delayed your confirmation longer than any previous nominee to your position, I led the fight to get you confirmed because I believed you to be a principled public servant. With the deepest regret, I now see that I was wrong."

-- Freshman Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) responded angrily:

-- But even the former chief ethics lawyer under George W. Bush said he filed a complaint against the FBI for a possible violation of the Hatch Act: "The F.B.I.'s job is to investigate, not to influence the outcome of an election," Richard Painter writes in a New York Times op-ed.

-- A high-ranking member on the House Judiciary Committee called on Comey to resign: "While I cannot know Director Comey's reasoning ... it was plainly premature, careless and unprecedented in its potential impact upon a Presidential election without a speck of information regarding the emails in question, their validity, substance or relevance," Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) said in a statement. "There is a reason that FBI investigations are not usually made public until they are completed. To do so gives an impression of guilt before all the facts have been determined."

-- "Weiner" has become almost a curse word over the past several days for many Democrats. From Maggie Haberman and Alexander Burns in the Times: "The fury that many leading Democrats feel toward Mr. Weiner had been building for years. His sexting habits embarrassed them. His attempted political comeback in 2013 disgusted them. [For many], the news resurrected memories of previous Weiner scandals. 'He is like a recurring nightmare,' said the Rev. Al Sharpton. 'It's like one of those 'Damien' movies — it's like every time you think he's dead, he keeps coming again.' For some, the development touched off more worry than anger: former President Bill Clinton, who learned of the news en route to his last event of the day, in Pennsylvania, fretted that it would draw hostile attention to Ms. Abedin. … Around the country, former aides to Mr. Weiner … traded emails and texts throughout the weekend, fuming at the 'collateral damage' inflicted by their onetime boss."

-- The probe has left some wondering whether Abedin's role in a potential Clinton White House could be jeopardized. From WSJ's Laura Meckler: "Some Democrats said Sunday they had no doubt Mrs. Clinton would bring Ms. Abedin with her to the White House. [Others] point to Mrs. Clinton's loyalty to her friends and staff, many of whom have been with her for years. Ms. Abedin, who is said to be personally closer to the candidate than any other adviser, is often described as akin to a second daughter." Trump repeatedly pressed the issue at campaign rallies this weekend, mentioning her by name: "Is she going to keep Huma?" Trump asked Saturday in Colo. "Huma's been a problem. Do we agree? Huma. Huma's been a problem. I wonder if Huma's going to stay there."

-- "For Clinton, the damage -- at least at the moment -- is done. The conversation in the race is now all about emails. And whether Clinton did or didn't do anything wrong," writes The Fix's Chris Cillizza. "That means Trump was out of the spotlight, which is the best/only place for him to be if he wants to have a chance at a comeback. At the start of this week, it looked like Clinton was running away with the 2016 race. She still might, but the last seven days aren't at all how she wanted to close the campaign."

-- Overplaying their hand: A Trump rally speaker in Vegas fantasized about the deaths of Clinton and Abedin while warming up the crowd. "Conservative commentator Wayne Allyn Root, describing his fantasy of a made-for-TV movie about Clinton and Abedin, said, 'We all get our wish. The ending is like 'Thelma and Louise.' (In the 1991 film, the title characters drive over a cliff to their death.) 'It's Hillary in a White Ford Bronco,' he said. 'She's got Huma driving, and they're headed for the Mexican border. I have a name for the future TV movie. It's called, 'Driving Ms. Hillary.' He added, 'When they make the run for the border of Mexico, there's nowhere to go, because President Trump has built a big, beautiful wall.'" (Politico's Ben Schreckinger)

-- The email controversy was the focal point of all the Sunday shows. Trump surrogates praised Comey's decision as an "example of real leadership" while Clinton's surrogates characterized it as unfair. From Elise Viebeck:

"This is clearly a very serious matter and we respect the institution of the FBI and we are confident that they'll handle this in a professional and timely way," Mike Pence said on "Fox News Sunday."
"I guess he was trying to clear his own conscience," Trump manager Kellyanne Conway said on CNN's "State of the Union."
"As far as we know now, Director Comey knows nothing about the content of these emails," Tim Kaine said on ABC's "This Week." "We don't know whether they're to or from Hillary at all … If [Comey] hasn't seen the emails, I mean they need to make that completely plain -- then they should work to see the emails and release the circumstances of those once they have done that analysis."
Clinton chairman John Podesta defended Huma on CNN when asked whether she withheld information from the FBI. "I think it's clear that she complied to the best of her ability turned everything over that she had in her possession," he told Jake Tapper. "I don't think she knows anything more than what we have seen in the press to date."

-- Not all Republicans piled on Clinton. She got some unlikely support from former Illinois Republican Rep. Joe Walsh last night:

Fans celebrate after the Cubs beat the Indians 3-2. (Elsa/Getty Images)

-- The Cubs beat the Indians, 3-2, to force a Game Six in the World Series. "Sweet home, CHICAGO!" — that's what they're singing now, all over Wrigley Field and its surrounding streets, and most everywhere else around this enormously relieved city, Thomas Boswell writes. "Cubs players, their jersey tops off, in shirt-sleeves, are waving at their fans in the third base stands, thanking them and vowing that their season will go on … and on. There have been celebrations of World Series triumphs — you know, the ones that actually get you a ring — that were not as loud nor as happy. All this joy, at a mere 3-2 victory in Game 5, to force this series back to Cleveland on Tuesday night, is actually about something else, something that the Cubs and their fans understand better perhaps than any group in the game: This night was about avoiding baseball humiliation. Not in the eyes of others, in the view of critics or other cities — but in their own eyes. And all of them, team and town together, could barely stand that thought, a grievous image that's been building here all weekend." "If you're a baseball fan, or thinking of becoming one, it was a wonderful night," said Cubs Manager Joe Maddon.

Birgitta Jonsdottir of the Pirate party reacts after the first results in Reykjavik, Iceland. (AP/Frank Augstein)

GET SMART FAST:

Iceland's prime minister stepped down after the insurgent, anti-establishment "Pirate Party" surged to second place in parliamentary elections. The four-year-old party is comprised largely of voters under 30, who have vowed for a transparent government and crowd-sourced constitution. (New York Times)
The U.S. has spent nearly $3 billion funding road projects in Afghanistan since 2001 – but a discouraging new report finds that 95 percent of them have been destroyed beyond repair. Many are cratered from bombs and insurgent checkpoints. The problems highlight the flaws in U.S. efforts to forge ahead with massive infrastructure projects despite the lack of stability. (Erin Cunningham)
An Oklahoma man wanted for shooting as many as six people, including two cops, was killed last night. His death ends a massive, weeklong manhunt, including a brief shootout with police. (Fred Barbash)
An Indiana mother who beat her son "dozens" of times with a coat hanger received just one year of probation after she used the state's new religious freedom law (signed by Mike Pence) to justify her actions. The boy caught a teacher's attention when he showed up to school with nearly 40 deep-purple bruises. (Kristine Guerra)
A new U.N. report found that 300 million children across the globe breathe air that is "highly" toxic, with the vast majority – about 220 million – living in areas with levels of toxins that are at least six times higher than what is considered safe. The children face serious, life-long health risks as a result. (New York Times)
A 6.6 magnitude earthquake hit central Italy, taking a heavy toll on medieval churches and other historic buildings. No deaths were reported, but at least 20 were injured. It is the region's third quake in two months. (Stefano Pitrelli)
Shiite militias have joined the operation to recapture Mosul from Islamic State forces, with more than 10,000 fighters slated to participate in the effort. But some say the move could whip up sectarian and regional tension in the already-complex situation. (Loveday Morris and Mustafa Salim)
Airstrikes carried out by a U.S.-backed Saudi-led coalition in western Yemen killed at least 43 and injured dozens more. Most of those killed were inmates and security guards at a prison. (Sudarsan Raghavan)
A fired Boston police officer is accusing her former supervisor of sexual harassment, saying he had a so-called "rapability" scale used to rate female drivers who were pulled over in traffic stops. (Sarah Larimer)
An opera lover sparked a terrorism scare at the New York Met, after attendees noticed him sprinkling his friend's ashes into the orchestra pit. Some witnesses mistook the white powdery substance for anthrax. Chaos ensued. (New York Times)
A college sophomore in Arkansas stoked controversy after he dressed as Bill Cosby and painted his face black for a fraternity Halloween party. In an apology, the student said he had "never heard" of blackface. (Travis M. Andrews)
Clinton is considering keeping Ernest Moniz on as Energy secretary. He helped sell the Iran deal and keeping him would avoid a confirmation fight. (Buzzfeed's Dino Grandoni)
A decorated combat veteran is suing American Airlines after she was reportedly barred from boarding a flight with her service dog, setting off a two-day ordeal in which she says she was repeatedly denied service and harassed by airline representatives. (Peter Holley)

Clinton campaigns on Sunday. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

LATEST POLLING:

-- The Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll finds Clinton holding a one-point lead over Trump, unchanged from Sunday. But positive opinions about her candidacy have slightly waned, with nearly 6 in 10 registered voters now saying they have an unfavorable impression of Clinton. (An identical percentage see Trump negatively.) Meanwhile, 47 percent of registered voters said they have a "strongly unfavorable" view of both Clinton and Trump.

-- NBC/WSJ/Marist has Clinton up 6 points in North Carolina (47-41).

-- A Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll puts Clinton up 5 points in Pennsylvania (46-41). She led by just two points in a September survey. The survey also found Katie McGinty and Republican incumbent Pat Toomey deadlocked at 41 percent in their Senate battle.

-- The Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram poll found Clinton leading in both of Maine's congressional district. In the 2nd district, Trump previously held a 15 point lead. The Democratic nominee now holds a 2 point advantage over Trump in the congressional district. (Maine awards its electoral votes by House district.)

-- A Salt Lake Tribune/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll shows the race in Utah is very much within the margin of error. Trump gets 32 percent to 30 percent for independent candidate Evan McMullin. Clinton gets 24 percent.

-- In a Wall Street Journal/NBC News analysis, 30 percent of undecided voters identify as Republican, compared to just 21 percent who call themselves Democrats. These numbers come as a reversal from 2012, when Democrats in the undecided voter pool outnumbered Republicans by 12 points.

A woman joins Trump as he holds up a "Latinas for Trump" sign during a campaign rally in Las Vegas. (Reuters/Carlo Allegri)

THE DAILY DONALD:

-- Desperate times call for desperate measures: Trump is redirecting his attention to three traditionally Democratic states in the final days, launching an eleventh-hour attempt to expand what for weeks has been an increasingly narrow path to victory. From Robert Costa and Abby Phillip: "Trump rallied Sunday in Colorado and New Mexico, and he was scheduled to make two stops Monday in Michigan — and visit Wisconsin the day after that. Clinton, meanwhile, is focused on shoring up turnout and enthusiasm, particularly among minority voters, in such critical battlegrounds as North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. Early voting data from Ohio contains ominous signs of a lack of enthusiasm for Clinton, notably in places such as Cleveland's Cuyahoga County, where high black turnout propelled President Obama to victory in 2008 and 2012."

Trump campaign chief Steve Bannon has settled on three states – Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Mexico – where the campaign plans to devote more time and money. Obama handily won all three in 2008 and 2012, even when the Badger State favorite son Paul Ryan was on the ballot. "Bannon believes that if GOP voters rapidly 'come home' nationally in light of recent events, that turnout plus late-breaking support among independents and blue-collar workers could bring new states into play beyond Pennsylvania, Nevada and Colorado — Democratic strongholds where Trump has been campaigning for months and remains behind," Costa and Phillip write. But early turnout in several of the states in question has already begun tilting Democrat, with Trump behind by mid-to-high single digits in some of the state contests.

Trump supporter yells anti-Semitic chant

-- Kellyanne Conway forcefully disavowed a supporter as "deplorable" for chanting "Jew-S-A!" at a Trump rally, in what is the latest incident of anti-Semitic rhetoric used by some of his supporters. "That man's conduct was deplorable. And had I been there, I would have asked security to remove him immediately," she said on CNN. (Jose A. DelReal and Sean Sullivan. Click the image above for video.)

-- A Trump supporter in Des Moines was arrested and charged with voting twice in Iowa last week. Officials said she attempted to cast both an early-voting ballot as well as one at a county satellite station. (Amy B Wang)

-- Police in Ohio are investigating a truckload of manure that was dumped in front of a Democratic Party office outside Cincinnati. Party officials said a similar incident occurred at the same location in 2012. (Amy B Wang)

-- Trump and his supporters have touted their similarities to Britain's "Brexit" vote, predicting a "Brexit times five" on Nov. 8. Trump even calls himself "Mr. Brexit" in his stump speech. But The Post's London bureau chief, Griff Witte, says the analogy only goes so far: "Even with the race appearing to tighten and with the FBI's investigative disclosures shaking up the contest, a Trump victory would amount to a far more dramatic upset than Brexit was, one that would defy evidence from polls, early-voting data and the organizational infrastructure of the two campaigns. 'The political comparison is absolutely apropos,' said Marcus Roberts [from the polling firm YouGov]. "The electoral comparison is not.' As much of a shock as Brexit was, the polls were not far off. In their final surveys before the vote, two major polling companies got it wrong and predicted a victory for 'remain.' But two others got it right ... [and] another four had results within the margin of error." Roberts acknowledged there may be some "shy Trump voters," but he doubted the level of support is enough to overcome Clinton's apparent lead: "For the Trump claim to be right, these polls would have to be wrong by double the margin of error," he said.

Trump, right, poses with New York City's Park Commissioner Henry Stern holding a pair of ice skates. (AP/G. Paul Burnett)

-- ICYMI: "Trump boasts about his philanthropy. But his giving falls short of his words." David Fahrenthold, who spent the past year researching Trump's claims of charitable giving, wrote a comprehensive review of his findings for the Sunday paper: "For as long as he has been rich and famous, Trump has also wanted people to believe he is generous. He spent years constructing an image as a philanthropist by appearing at charity events and by making very public — even nationally televised — promises to give his own money away. It was, in large part, a facade. A months-long investigation … has not been able to verify many of Trump's boasts about his philanthropy. Instead, throughout his life in the spotlight, whether as a businessman, television star or presidential candidate, The Post found that Trump had sought credit for charity he had not given — or had claimed other people's giving as his own."

Anecdote du jour: In 1996, Trump attended the star-studded ribbon-cutting for a nursery school serving children with AIDS. He took a VIP seat for big-dollar donors up front, despite having never given so much as a dollar to the nursery or the associated charity. "Nobody knew he was coming," recounted Abigail Disney, a donor on the dais. "There's this kind of ruckus at the door, and I don't know what was going on, and in comes Donald Trump … [He] just gets up on the podium and sits down." Afterward, several donors recalled, Trump left without offering an explanation. Or a donation. One honored donor was stuck in the audience because Trump took his seat – and the charity spent "months" attempting to repair their relationship with him.

Follow the money: The Trump Foundation's largest-ever gift of $264,631 was used to renovate a fountain outside the windows of Trump's Plaza Hotel. Its smallest-ever gift, a $7 donation, was paid to the Boy Scouts in 1989, at a time when it cost $7 to register a new Scout. Trump's oldest son was 11 at the time. Trump did not respond to a question about whether the money was paid to register him.

Nate Silver (Nam Y. Huh/AP)

WAPO HIGHLIGHTS:

-- "Nate Silver blew it when he missed Trump. Now he really needs to get it right," by Margaret Sullivan: "If a statistics guru can be a rock star, Silver surely is. But even rock stars have bad days. Silver, 38, had a run of them a few months ago, when it became obvious that his consistent early dismissals of [Trump] were flat-out wrong. And this University of Chicago graduate wasn't used to being wrong ... Last week, in his Upper West Side newsroom … Silver talked about learning that lesson the hard way — and about the next hurdle."

-- "Inside Evan McMullin's 10 years undercover in the CIA," by Josh Rogin: "Vetting a former spy for the nation's highest office isn't easy … This has left McMullin vulnerable to attacks he cannot publicly address. But I interviewed six former CIA officers who worked with McMullin during his 10 years inside the agency. What emerged was a picture of a young case officer who volunteered for duty in the world's most dangerous places and had a unique talent for recruiting members of extremist organizations as assets. After graduating in 2001, McMullin joined the CIA's directorate of operations … and he soon found himself in a southwest Asian country where the U.S. military was deeply engaged in the new war on terror. While specific details of McMullin's missions remain classified, intelligence goals at that time included gathering information on the Taliban, developing intelligence for strikes on terrorists and searching for high-value al-Qaeda leaders, including Osama bin Laden. … As a Mormon, McMullin could not indulge in the vices that often help to build such bonds, so he used his piousness and his experience before college as a missionary in Brazil to his advantage. 'He believes in what he says and that's how he recruited people,' the station chief said. 'People fundamentally trust Evan.'"

-- "For 25 years, it has been Clarence Thomas v. Controversy," by Robert Barnes: "Justice Clarence Thomas marked 25 years on the Supreme Court last week, and if he remains for another dozen or so, he could become the longest-serving member in the court's history. But the unofficial title of the court's most polarizing justice seems his to keep regardless of tenure. Dedicated supporters are determined that the 68-year-old Thomas gets his due as one of the court's most productive, if unorthodox, thinkers, and they seized on the 25th anniversary to make their point. They have created websites and a Twitter account to remind the world of his accomplishments [and] held a symposium on his jurisprudence … His detractors continue to characterize his mostly silent demeanor on the bench during oral arguments as disinterest. The subject himself tends to leave the debate to others. 'I don't spend a lot of time looking back,' he told an appreciative audience that gathered at the Heritage Foundation on Wednesday to congratulate him. 'I'm not a navel-gazer.'"

Obama speaks during a campaign rally for Clinton in North Las Vegas, Nevada. (Ethan Miller/Getty)

-- "From hope and change to Trump and Clinton," by Greg Jaffe: "In his quest to help Clinton win the presidency, Obama is spending his final days in office facing a 'hopeless' electorate. For many who will wait hours in line to hear him speak, Obama's 2008 election represented one of the most hopeful moments in American politics in decades. ... Today those words sound as if they came from a different era. Obama will close out his presidency at what is perhaps the least hopeful moment in American politics in decades, a time when the two major-party candidates have historically low approval ratings and are locked in a bitter and coarse election contest. For much of this year, Obama, like the people who pack his rallies, has puzzled over what happened. 'It's one of the few regrets of my presidency that the rancor and suspicion between the parties has gotten worse instead of better,' he said earlier this year."

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

Under pressure? Over the weekend, Jason Chaffetz took out his frustrations with a chainsaw:

Prominent Democrats urged focus:

Many commented on the irony of Weiner's involvement. Example:

Donna Brazile shared what she's doing with hateful emails:

From the CNN correspondent assigned to Trump:

Katy Perry and Orlando Bloom dressed up as the Clintons for Kate Hudson's Halloween party and showed up with a fake Secret Service detail:

Jeff Denham celebrated Dia de los Muertos:

Can you carry a pumpkin on a plane? Here's what the TSA says:

Kevin McCarthy and son Connor imitated this classic photo:

Lena Dunham is preparing to campaign for Clinton in North Carolina:

Greta Van Susteren unearthed a random shot of Betty White and Bo Obama:

Finally, check out this gorgeous photo of a globular cluster from NASA:

GOOD READS FROM ELSEWHERE:

A demonstrator outside the Trump International Hotel in Washington. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

-- "The GOP's age of authoritarianism has just begun, and it will not end with a Clinton presidency," New York Magazine's Jonathan Chait argues: "Trump is an extreme event, but Trumpism is no fluke. Its weaknesses are fleeting, and its strengths likely to endure. Far from an organization that is 'probably headed toward a civil war' … summing up a rapidly congealing consensus — the Republican Party is instead more unified than one might imagine, as well as more dangerous. The accommodations its leaders have made to their erratic and delirious nominee underscore a capacity to go further and lower to maintain their grip on power than anybody understood. More consequentially, the horrors Trump has unleashed are the product of tectonic forces in American politics."

-- New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan said she will return campaign contributions from lawyers at a Boston firm, following a Boston Globe report revealing that the firm had given partners more than $1 million in apparent reimbursements. From Felicia Gans: "The investigation … found that three partners of Thornton Law Firm and one of the partner's wives donated nearly $1.6 million to Democratic Party fund-raising committees and politicians from 2010 to 2014. During the same period, the partners received $1.4 million in 'bonuses,' according to the report … More than 280 contributions matched bonuses that were paid within 10 days." In a statement Sunday, Hassan spokesman Aaron Jacobs said the campaign was unaware of the "practices inside this firm," and said she will return $51,000 in total: $38,000 from her Senate campaign and $13,000 from the state committee from her gubernatorial campaign.

HOT ON THE LEFT:

"Kansas GOP distributing extremely Islamophobic mailer," from ThinkProgress: "The Kansas Republican Party is distributing mailers depicting ISIS fighters and promising to defend the state against threats 'from those who support ideologies that are in conflict with the United States Constitution and Kansas values.' 'The first step to keeping Kansas safe is to recognize who the enemy is,' says a mailer distributed by the party behalf of Republican State Rep. Joseph Scapa. 'LET'S KEEP TERRORISTS OUT OF KANSAS!' The Kansas Republican Party justifies its Islamophobic messaging on the basis of focus groups that indicated it's a winning issue. The mailer is being distributed weeks after three white men were arrested in Garden City, Kansas and charged for allegedly plotting to bomb an apartment complex where many Somali immigrants live and worship."

HOT ON THE RIGHT:

"Creationism in Texas Could Go Extinct on Election Day," from the Daily Beast: "Teaching creationism in Texas public schools may become illegal next year.In September, a group of educators chosen by the Texas Education Agency to streamline the state's science curriculum standards removed portions of four passages that contained creationist language. The new standards must still be approved by the Texas State Board of Education where creationists are fighting to reverse the changes. The board members, unlike the education agency staff, are elected officials. That means the fate of creationism in Texas could be determined on Election Day. If the decision stands, it would be a major blow to political creationism and the first time in a decade for any state's creationism policy to be overturned.

DAYBOOK:

On the campaign trail: Clinton holds rallies in Kent and Cincinnati, Ohio; Kaine does the same in Jacksonville and Sanford, N.C. Trump stops in Grand Rapids and Warren, Mich.; Pence is in Cocoa, Maitland and Clearwater, Fla.

At the White House: Obama and Biden meet for lunch. Later, the Obamas welcome families to trick-or-treat at the White House and Biden speaks at the Philadelphia Democratic Dinner.

On Capitol Hill: The Senate and House are out.

QUOTE OF THE DAY:

"I'm very happy that I don't have an awful lot of emails." – Joe Biden on CBS

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

-- Halloween temps will be a bit cooler than this weekend – but the "ghost of summer" could haunt us midweek, the Capital Weather Gang forecasts: "This weather is nothing frightening, but it is more fitting for fall than Sunday's 80-degree weather. A breeze from the north draws in seasonably cool air. Despite lots of sunshine, highs range from 60 to 65."

-- D.C. police are looking for two costume-clad suspects in connection with a robbery this weekend. The suspects were reportedly donning a turtle and skeleton costume during the attack, which occurred Sunday night near the U Street area. (Martin Weil)

-- The Wizards lost to the Grizzlies 112-103.

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

"This American Life" commissioned a song about Paul Ryan, and they got help from the songwriters from "Frozen." Listen:

Will I Know Anyone At This Party (Neil Patrick Harris as Paul Ryan) - This American Life #600

The Clinton campaign this morning released a remake of the 1964 "Daisy" ad that Lyndon Johnson ran against Barry Goldwater:

Daisy | Hillary Clinton

(Fun fact: HRC was a so-called Goldwater Girl.)

The Clinton campaign also released a 30-second spot featuring Obama saying that his legacy is "on the ballot":

On the Ballot | Hillary Clinton

Clinton's campaign is running a spot in the Panhandle of Florida that has not been released to the press. It features a Republican Air Force veteran saying that he "rationalized" Trump's behavior until he saw the 2005 video with Billy Bush. "That was the last straw," he says to camera. "I don't want my granddaughter thinking it is okay to be treated that way and my grandson growing up thinking that is how you should treat women. That scares me, that scares me a lot." CNN discovered the spot with the help of Kantar Media. It is running in the Mobile, Alabama, market. It may not persuade Republicans to vote for her, but it could dampen GOP base turnout. Watch it here.

Joe Biden's reaction is priceless when he's told during a CNN interview of Weiner's role in the latest email kerfuffle (click to watch):

Here's a 75-second video of Trump talking about his great relationship with Vladimir Putin. Now he claims no such relationship exists. This raises more troubling questions about what kind of financial relationships he might have with the Russians, which we can only find out if he releases his tax returns: