News Reporter: The Daily 202: Obamacare premium hikes bring another October surprise, but they may not move many voters

Obamacare premium hikes bring another October surprise, but they may not move many voters

President Obama talks with Jimmy Kimmel in Los Angeles yesterday. (Susan Walsh/AP)

With Breanne Deppisch

THE BIG IDEA:

LAS VEGAS—The Obama administration's quiet acknowledgement last night that premiums for popular Obamacare health plans will rise by an average of 25 percent next year is another October surprise.

Fresh government data also shows the number of options for consumers is dwindling dramatically, as insurance companies pull out of the exchanges. The Department of Health and Human Services revealed that the typical number of plans available when open enrollment begins next week will be more than one-third fewer than last year, from 47 to 30. One in five customers shopping in the federal exchange will find only one insurance company available, compared with just 2 percent for 2016. Competition is falling in all but four of the 38 states that rely on the federal exchange. In Arizona, an extreme case, the number of plans will plummet from 65 to four, Amy Goldstein reports.

What to expect from the 2017 Affordable Care Act enrollment season

-- Republican operatives are giddy about the news, which they see as a lifejacket that could save their Senate majority from the sinking ship of Donald Trump.

-- These numbers also seem to validate the Koch political network's focus on Obamacare in its closing argument. The organizations funded by the conservative billionaire industrialist brothers, and their allies, never got behind the GOP presidential nominee but chose to focus on protecting Republican congressional majorities. Americans for Prosperity, the flagship group in the network, has focused more on anti-ACA messaging than any other issue—in ads, mailers, phone bank scripts and with paid canvassers. Last week, AFP unveiled a seven-figure digital ad buy against eight Democratic Senate candidates to highlight problems with the law.

A field staffer from Americans for Prosperity, Kathryn Ferro, goes door knocking in Bensalem, Pa., last week. (Matt Rourke/AP)

-- Reporting on the ground in Nevada reveals that this issue is not as black and white as it was in previous cycles, including 2014. There are a lot more shades of gray in public attitudes now that the law has been implemented and has provided millions of people with tangible benefits.

I went door knocking with field staffers from Americans for Prosperity, the Koch-funded group, last Friday afternoon on the outskirts of Las Vegas. Over two hours, knocking on almost 50 doors, not a single person said that they oppose Obamacare or are negatively impacted by it. In fact, everyone who engaged with the door-knockers said they view the law positively.

Daniel Bulgatz, 19, is a sophomore at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, who also works full-time for AFP. He used the money he earned from his first seven months on the job to buy a Jeep Wrangler Sport -- with the doors removed – which he calls Black Betty. On Friday, he had shown up at the field office at 6 a.m. to make telephone calls into Pennsylvania and then started hitting doors once it was late enough in Nevada.

He approached a modest, stucco, two-story house – painted in pastels – and a middle-aged woman with children inside answered. He opened by asking what she thinks of the law. "Obamacare is not Obamacare," she replied sternly. "It is the health care reform program. And it is actually a good thing. I didn't qualify for Medicaid but couldn't afford to pay the $400 a month that an employer offered me health care coverage from. So I used the exchange and got health care for my family at half the price!"

Back in the car, he told his canvassing partner what she'd said. "Even Obama calls it Obamacare," replied Erinn Mahathey, 24.

A similar scene repeated itself four other times before the end of their walk packet. At another house a few minutes later, Daniel asked another woman what she thought of the law. "I like it," she said. He told her 240,000 Nevadans have seen their insurance premiums rise by an average of 15 percent and asked if she has friends who have been adversely effected. "My family actually got insurance from Obamacare that we couldn't afford before," the woman replied.

Being a field staffer can be tedious work. Erinn, who is only five-foot-four-inches, had to jump to get in and out of the Jeep after each house. At one place, a guy watching TV had his door open. She knocked, and he looked. Then he just ignored her. On average, they make five human connections an hour.

AFP has around 700 staffers spread across 35 states, including 21 in Nevada. Despite the drudgery, the group said it has made around 30 million voter contacts nationally since the start of the year. They say they use sophisticated targeting tools to identify voters. The iPads the field reps carry say which doors to knock on – and the names and ages of who lives inside. In this case, Daniel and Erinn were approaching households with people who the data scientists believe are with them on the issues and less likely to vote. But they still kept striking out.

The group has pushed an anti-Obamacare message at doors around Nevada since June. The canvassers are told not to talk about the presidential race. When a gruff, elderly man asked if Daniel was for Trump, he pivoted back to Obamacare without answering. The man replied that he served in the military so he gets care from the V.A. "I don't have to screw around with Obamacare," he said.

-- Top-line public opinion has been remarkably static. The nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation runs a monthly national tracking poll to survey attitudes about this issue. Their September version showed 44 percent view the health care law favorably and 47 percent view it unfavorably. Only 9 percent don't have an opinion. Check out how relatively consistent these numbers have been going back to when the legislation passed:

Most voters, when polled, say a candidate's health care plan is very important to them:

Nearly two-thirds of Democrats say the marketplaces in their own state and in the nation overall are working well, while one-third of Republicans say the marketplaces in their own state are working well and 25 percent say the marketplaces in the nation overall are working well.

-- Obama himself is also more popular, which makes the "Obamacare" branding less damaging. Gallup's tracking poll pegged his approval rating at 54 percent yesterday.

Catherine Cortez Masto debates Joe Heck at Canyon Springs High School in North Las Vegas. (Erik Verduzco/Las Vegas Review-Journal via AP)

-- Another difference compared to past cycles: Most Democratic candidates in battleground Senate races did not actually vote for the ACA. They were not in Congress. So the citations in ads going after them often refer to instances in which they merely said that they would not vite ti repeal the law. This gives candidates like Catherine Cortez Masto, the Democratic nominee in Nevada, more credibility to argue that she supports reform generally but wants to fix the unpopular parts of the law.

Evan Bayh is one of the few Democratic Senate candidates who actually voted for the law, and he's getting hammered for it by outside groups. Because he retired in 2010, he's never really had to defend the law before Indiana voters. The others are Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona and Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. Feingold lost his seat partly because of backlash to the law six years ago, but he's now favored to win it back in a rematch with Ron Johnson.

Trump criticizes premium increases for Obamacare plans

-- If this was a normal election, and Republicans had a nominee with any self-discipline, health care could be a top-tier issue in the presidential race. Reacting to the news of rising premiums during a rally in Tampa last night, Trump reiterated his promising to "repeal and replace" Obamacare. He declared that he would provide Americans with "great health care at a fraction" of what they pay now but provided no details about how. Then he moved on to a series of personal attacks against Hillary Clinton that totally overshadowed anything he said about health care. (More on that below.)

-- A fresh poll from the Las Vegas Review-Journal shows Clinton pulling ahead in Nevada. She's up 7 points (48-41), compared to 1 point four weeks ago (45-44).

-- Without the help from the Koch network, the Silver State might already be off the map. The chairman of the Washoe County Republican Party (which includes Reno) complained to NBC yesterday that no one on the Trump campaign ever returns his phone calls, let alone provides the resources that he needs. "I call them every day," he told Chris Jansing, offering the number on the air. "I say I am the chairman of a swing county in a swing state. You guys need to talk to me. I need 2,000 yard signs and I need 10,000 bumper stickers. And I don't even get a call back."

Welcome to the Daily 202, PowerPost's morning newsletter.
With contributions from Elise Viebeck (@eliseviebeck).

Former Pennsylvania Attorney General Kathleen Kane leaves court in handcuffs after her sentencing at the Montgomery County Courthouse yesterday. (Dan Gleiter/PennLive.com via AP, Pool)

GET SMART FAST:

Former Pennsylvania Attorney General Kathleen Kane, once considered a rising Democratic star, was sentenced to up to 23 months in prison for orchestrating an illegal leak of grand jury testimony for political retribution. In 2012, she was the first woman to be elected as that state's attorney general. (Philadelphia Inquirer)
Gunmen in the southwestern Pakistani city of Quetta killed at least 59 in an assault on a police training camp. The attackers stormed the center at 10 p.m., gunning down cadets and detonating explosive vests. The assault lasted about five hours and injured more than 100 people. (Shaiq Hussain and Erin Cunningham)
The Pentagon is reviewing how to proceed after thousands of soldiers were improperly enticed with large enlistment bonuses. Soldiers collectively received $30 million, only to be told later the money wasn't theirs and must be repaid. (Dan Lamothe)
America's respect for police surged to its highest level in more than four decades, according to a new Gallup poll, with 76 percent of respondents saying they have "a great deal" of respect for police in their area. The results are a 12-point jump from 2015 and come after the high-profile profile attacks on cops in Dallas and Baton Rouge. (Wall Street Journal)
"Serial" podcast subject Adnan Syed filed a motion for bail, seeking to be released as he awaits a new trial in the 1999 strangling death of ex-girlfriend Hae Min Lee. A petition filed Monday by his attorneys says the case against him is "crumbling" and raises new questions about former co-defendant Jay Wilds. (Baltimore Sun)
More than 1,600 migrants were bused to shelters across France as authorities continued to prepare for the demolition of the notorious "Jungle" refugee camp. Dismantling the camp has been a relatively peaceful affair so far after migrants were earlier tear gassed. (James McAuley)
Britain held its first "White Lives Matter" protest this weekend. A march through a seaside town featured banners praising "white tradition" and culture. The event, organized by an alt-right group, was met by an even larger group of counter-protesters. (Ishaan Tharoor)
Hundreds of Harvard students walked out of class to stage a sit-in on behalf of dining hall workers who have been on strike since the beginning of the month over wages and health care costs. (Danielle Douglas-Gabriel)
Twitter is preparing to cut "hundreds" of jobs, slashing 8 percent of its workforce as soon as this week. (Bloomberg)
Tesla was delivered another blow to its reputation. A Consumer Reports survey deigned the once-beloved electric automaker one of the "least reliable" car companies in the country. Critics found fault with Model X SUV, saying its ambitious featuresare "plagued" with malfunctions. (Drew Harwell)
Newt Gingrich joined former Obama adviser Van Jones on stage to speak about the nation's opioid addiction crisis. The two men, along with former Rep. Patrick Kennedy, are "founding advisers" of a nonprofit that popped up in the summer called Advocates for Opioid Recovery. (Ariana Eunjung Cha)
A New York woman filed a $20 million false advertising lawsuit against KFC after she allegedly did not receive enough chicken in her basket. "They're showing a bucket that's overflowing with chicken," said the 64-year-old, who said she thought she could turn the bucket into "a couple of meals." "That's false advertising, and it doesn't feed the whole family. They're small pieces!" (Gene Marks)
A Krispy-Kreme loving man has filed suit against the city of Orlando after police mistook dried donut glaze for crystal meth. In the officer's defense, the sugary glaze tested positive for meth. TWICE. (Orlando Sentinel)

A crew member of the International Space Station, Oleg Novitsky, attends a training session outside Moscow this morning. (Maxim Zmeyev/Reuters)

-- Vladimir Putin is not messing around: Russian authorities have stepped up nuclear-war survival measures, dusting off Soviet-era civil-defense plans and upgrading bomb shelters in the biggest cities amidst an increasingly confrontational posture toward Washington. From the Wall Street Journal's Thomas Grove: "The country recently held its biggest civil defense drills since the collapse of the U.S.S.R., with what officials said were 40 million people rehearsing a response to chemical and nuclear threats. Videos of emergency workers deployed in hazmat suits or checking the ventilation in bomb shelters were prominently aired on television when the four days of drills were held across the country. Students tried on gas masks and placed dummies on stretchers in school auditoriums. … At the Kremlin's Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Cold War is back."

Secret Service agents stand guard at the entrance of the National Republican Senatorial Committee during Trump's May visit. (Brendan Smialowski/AFPGetty Images)

-- With the Republican Senate majority seeming to slip away, the knives are coming out for NRSC executive director Ward Baker. The Wall Street Journal's Kristina Peterson is out this morning with a brutal, deep dive: "Some Republicans are privately concerned that (he) didn't raise enough money and deployed much of it too early, leaving the party outspent by Democratic groups in eight of 10 key Senate races … Mr. Baker, who left for Marines boot camp within 24 hours of his high-school graduation, is known for his blunt, military-style approach. … But DOZENS OF REPUBLICAN OPERATIVES said Mr. Baker's sharp-edged style can backfire. Some of those who have been screamed at by him have been less willing to help wrangle donors and senators to raise money."

Money problems: "Although a 2014 change to campaign-finance laws allows national party committees to collect more money from donors, the NRSC raised less money through the end of August than in either 2014 or 2012. At the start of September, it had raised $65.6 million, below the $77.2 million it amassed by the same point in 2014 and $72.4 million in 2012. The NRSC fired its fundraiser at the end of 2015…And because the NRSC opted to spend early, it had less cash on hand on Labor Day—$11.9 million—than it did at the same point in 2014, when it had $19.9 million, or in 2012 with $28.9 million."

Senate Democrats are in the minority yet somehow doing way better on fundraising: "The NRSC said last week it had raised $15 million in September, its best month of the election cycle. The committee ended September with $12.3 million on hand, and would have been out of cash had it not also taken out a $15 million loan. Senate Democrats' campaign arm raised $19 million in September, leaving it with $28.5 million in cash on hand and no debt."

Recruitment failure: "Many are dismayed they aren't fielding a competitive challenger in Colorado, where a Democratic incumbent was beaten in 2014."

Spending questioned: "Some of Mr. Baker's expenses at the NRSC have also raised eyebrows. He spent almost $5,000 in three stays at the Loews Regency Hotel in New York City, a luxury hotel near Central Park … And coming back from the GOP convention in Cleveland, the NRSC chartered a private plane to fly home staff members."

How the NRSC managed the story: Rob Portman and Marco Rubio provided quotes defending Ward.

Amanda Carpenter: A conservative woman taking on Trump

-- PowerPost's last installment in our series rolls out today with some provocative pieces:

Kelsey Snell describes the "nightmare" 2016 has become for female conservative pundits. "Having a conversation with one of Trumps' female surrogates about how you sleep at night would get in the way of doing the day-to-day job," quipped anti-Trumper S.E. Cupp. "I can't tell you how embarrassing and uncomfortable it is to have to sit across from someone like Wolf Blitzer or Jake Tapper, two men I know and respect, and talk about the presidential nominee of my own party grabbing women's genitals … That is not where I thought I would be. That is not why I aspired to do [be a commentator]. It is not what made me a Republican."
Krissah Thompson tells us about the implicit power of the first lady – or perhaps soon-to-be first spouse. "We're elected by one man," Laura Bush once joked. "Right, right," Michelle Obama agreed. "So we can't waste this spotlight. It is temporary, and life is short, and change is needed. And women are smarter than men."
Juliet Eilperin talks about the amplifying effect of a certain office strategy used by White House women, which has since her original piece been employed far-and-wide.
Finally, our graphics department crunched the federal workforce numbers for the very first time to reveal what women and men get paid, and how they differ. Check out your agency or department here.

Trump rallies with supporters in St. Augustine, Florida. (Reuters/Jonathan Ernst)

THE DAILY DONALD:

-- Mike Pence will campaign at Ashland University in Ohio today. This is awkward because the school's College Republican chapter voted last month to disavow Trump's candidacy.

-- Pat Toomey is the only vulnerable senator who refuses to say who he is voting for. During last night's final Pennsylvania Senate debate, the incumbent reiterated his view that Trump is "badly flawed" but then said, if he were elected president, the former reality TV star would likely sign a repeal of Obamacare and reinstate sanctions on Iran. Pressed by the moderator, Toomey refused to say if that means he is voting for Trump. "I don't think my constituents care that much how one person is going to vote," he said. "They're gonna make their own decision." (The Allentown Morning Call has a full recap. NBC tracks the evolution of Toomey's dodges on the Trump question.) Remember how hard the NRSC went after Alison Grimes when she took the exact same position in 2014 vis-à-vis Obama?

-- So much for principle: When Idaho Republican Sen. Mike Crapo announced earlier this month that Trump should step aside as the nominee, he cited his 20 years of prosecuting domestic violence offenders. Now Crapo says he will vote for Trump after all. And then his office blasted out his comments to its press list to make sure everyone knows. (KTVB)

-- The Trump campaign is deploying Jeff Sessions to Iowa today to headline a "Women for Trump" event. Recall that the Alabama senator said earlier this month that Trump's bragging about groping women on a 2005 videotape would NOT constitute sexual assault if he actually did it. "I think that's a stretch," the senator told the Weekly Standard.

-- Trump got even nastier yesterday in Florida. From John Wagner, Sean Sullivan and Anne Gearan: He claimed that Clinton has "abused" the Hispanic and African American communities. Advocating for an increased U.S. role in ending the civil war in Syria (something he quite recently criticized Clinton for doing), Trump said: "If you look at her plans for Syria, these are the plans of a child." In Tampa, he said: "She lies more than any human being." He also ramped up criticism of Clinton's "illegal" email server, saying FBI and Justice Department officials "inappropriately" let her off the hook. "We have to investigate the investigation, folks," Trump said.

Trump accuser Jessica Drake holds a news conference at the office of her attorney, Gloria Allred, in Los Angeles on Saturday. The adult film actress said Trump kissed her and two other women on the lips "without asking for permission" when they met him after a golf tournament in 2006. Then she says he offered her $10,000 if she'd come to his room alone. (AP Photo/Ryan Kang)

-- Trump attacked his latest accuser, Jessica Drake, by noting that she appears in adult films. He called her claims "total fiction" during a New Hampshire radio interview: "You know, this one that came out recently, 'he grabbed me and he grabbed me on the arm.' Oh, I'm sure she's never been grabbed before." The Republican nominee continued his complaints in a Miami radio interview later in the day, accusing the media of engaging in "a pile-on, the likes of which nobody's ever seen." (Wagner/Sullivan/Gearan)

-- Trump collected a $17 million insurance payout in 2005 for hurricane damage done to Mar-a-Lago – but the AP found no evidence of damage to warrant the money. From Jeff Horowitz and Terry Spencer: "Two years after a series of storms, the real estate tycoon said he didn't know how much had been spent on repairs, but acknowledged he pocketed some of the money. 'Landscaping, roofing, walls, painting, leaks, artwork in the — you know, the great tapestries, tiles, Spanish tiles, the beach, the erosion,' he said of the storm damage. 'It's still not what it was.' Trump's description of 'extensive damage' fails to match the versions of Mar-a-Lago members and even Trump loyalists. [Longtime Trump butler Anthony Senecal] recalled no catastrophic damage. Palm Beach building department records showed no permits for construction on that scale after the storms. Likewise, records of the city's Landmarks and Preservation Commission reflected no repair work conducted following the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons."

-- The Trump brand has become radioactive --> "What's in a Name? When It's 'Trump Place,' It's a Revolt," by the New York Times's Charles V. Bagli: "At three large rental buildings emblazoned with gold letters spelling out T-R-U-M-P P-L-A-C-E on the Upper West Side, the lobby rain mats embossed with the same name are being replaced … The new versions, they have been told, will proclaim the buildings' addresses, 140, 160, or 180 Riverside Blvd. At the same buildings, they say, the doormen and concierges have been measured for new uniforms that will no longer carry the Trump name. And 300 people, most of them tenants, have signed an online petition titled 'Dump the TRUMP Name' in less than 10 days." Throughout his career, Trump has bragged that his name increases the value of a property by "25 percent." But now, a backlash may be taking hold. "I haven't had a single interaction with a neighbor or an employee who wasn't interested in having the name removed," one resident said. "It used to be that we were embarrassed because he was tacky. Now he's shown himself to be despicable on every level."

-- An American Bar Association committee of media lawyers commissioned a report on Trump's history of litigation, concluding that he is a "LIBEL BULLY" who had filed meritless suits attacking his opponents and had never won in court. From The New York Times' Adam Liptak: "The report, prepared by former journalist and longtime First Amendment lawyer Susan E. Seager, found that Trump had lost four suits, withdrawn two and obtained one default judgment in a private arbitration when a former Miss Pennsylvania failed to appear to contest the matter. But the bar association refused to publish the report, citing 'the risk of the A.B.A. being sued by Mr. Trump.' In internal communications, the bar association's leadership, including its general counsel's office and public relations staff, did not appear to dispute the report's conclusions." (The article was titled "Donald J. Trump Is a Libel Bully but Also a Libel Loser.")

Jesse Benton whispers to Ron Paul in 2011. (Charles Dharapak/AP)

-- The Telegraph published video footage that appears to show a GOP consultant offering to hide the source of a super PAC donation to aid Trump's presidential bid. From the New York Times' Nicholas Confessore: "[The London-based newspaper said] two of its reporters, posing as representatives of a Chinese national who supported Trump, had proposed making a $2 million contribution in support of him. According to the newspaper, the G.O.P. consultant, Jesse Benton, had proposed routing the contribution through his own public relations firm and into nonprofit groups that do not disclose their donors, disguising the foreign source. The groups would then make the contribution to the super PAC … or spend it to benefit Mr. Trump." While Benton has a checkered history – he was handed probation last month for his role in a 2012 scheme to make secret payments to an Iowa state senator – the footage does not show how reporters identified themselves to Benton, and reflects only snippets of their conversation." (Benton was Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's campaign manager for most of 2014.)

-- Breitbart has been an arm of the Trump campaign since the GOP primaries: A liberal activist coordinated with Breitbart reporters to cover his disruptions of GOP primary campaign events, Politico's Hadas Gold reports. "Aaron Black, an associate with Democracy Partners … worked with the pro-Trump site Breitbart, tipping it off about his stunts, exchanging raw video and coordinating coverage … [In video footage], Black says he helped organize protests in Chicago that led to Trump's cancellation of a rally there in March. According to [a] source, Black coordinated with Breitbart via email, phone and in person, including when he dressed up as a robot and trolled Marco Rubio's events. The relationship was described as very friendly. That Breitbart had supported Trump over Rubio and Cruz is already known. But their willingness to work with a progressive activist perhaps goes to show how far they were willing to go to take down candidates, such as Rubio, whom they have described as being for 'open borders' and 'pro amnesty.'"

Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren campaign at Saint Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

THE DAILY HILLARY

-- Elizabeth Warren stumped alongside Clinton in New Hampshire, warning Trump that "nasty women" will be his undoing. From Anne Gearan: Speaking at Saint Anselm college, the Massachusetts senator called Trump a "bigot" and "sexist boor": "He thinks because he has money he can call women fat," and rate their bodies, she said. "He thinks that because he has a mouthful of Tic Tacs he can force himself on any woman within groping distance. Donald, women have had it with guys like you. And nasty women have really had it with guys like you!" Warren's lines got louder applause than Clinton's. "She gets under his thin skin like nobody else," a delighted Hillary said at the start of her remarks.

-- The Warren-Clinton détente may not last, The Boston Globe's Annie Linskey reports: "The two political leaders made sure they projected unity. But there's a shared mood of skepticism between the two … And if they don't find common ground, Democrats could wind up divided on core agenda items even if the party rolls up big election gains. … 'Despite the fact she's only a freshman senator, this might be one of the most important relationships in Washington,' said Jim Manley, a former staffer to Harry Reid. 'Warren will be a strong supporter of a Clinton administration, but I bet she's going to cause them a whole bunch of pain as well.'"

-- Bernie Sanders signaled he plans to push liberal legislation "with or without Clinton's support" if she is elected in November -- and to aggressively oppose appointments that do not pass muster with the party's left wing. From an interview with John Wagner: "Sanders said he and other senators have started plotting legislation that would achieve many of the proposals that fueled his insurgent run for president, including a $15 federal minimum wage, tuition-free public college, an end to 'mass incarceration' and aggressive steps to fight climate change. 'I will be vigorously in opposition, and I will make that very clear,' Sanders said."

The Vermont senator said he favors a more "combative" approach against congressional Republicans in in 2017: "It's not good enough for me, or anybody, to say, 'Well, look, Republicans control the House: From Day One, we're going to have to compromise.' The Democratic Party, before they start compromising, has got to rally the American people around our ideas and make it clear that if Republicans do not go along with reasonable ideas to benefit the middle class and the working class, they are going to pay a very heavy political price."

President Barack Obama walks from the Rose Garden with, from left, Samantha Power, Susan Rice and Tom Donilon. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

-- TRANSITION WATCH --> "Is Tom Donilon the frontrunner to lead Clinton's State Department?" by Elise Viebeck: "No position in a potential Clinton administration is getting more chatter than who would be the new president's secretary of State. And why not? If Clinton beats [Trump], the State Department will have its former leader in the White House for the first time since James Buchanan was president. It's a plum position, but Clinton's history in the role would place a unique burden on her pick. Over in Foggy Bottom, the diplomatic establishment is rooting for one of its own. That's Tom Donilon, President Obama's former national security adviser and co-chair of Clinton's transition. Attend any foreign policy event in town and you will hear the talk about Donilon in the slot. Some see him as just another candidate among equals; others insist he's a shoe-in for the job." Of course, detractors have also had their say throughout Donilon's career. He has been called too inexperienced overseas, too demanding of staff -- but as Biden once said, Donilon 'does [politics and policy] better than anyone I have ever dealt with … including [Henry] Kissinger.'"

-- Getting ready for Hillary --> "Drug lobby adds $100M to war chest ahead of pricing battle," by Politico's Sarah Karlin-Smith and Anna Palmer: "The pharmaceutical lobby is requiring member companies to fork over an additional $100 million per year as the industry gears up for a bruising post-election battle over drug prices … PhRMA's decision to hike membership dues 50 percent will increase the trade group's considerable coffers to more than $300 million per year — a financial advantage it hasn't enjoyed since 2009, when drug makers came out largely unscathed in Obamacare negotiations."

-- Madeline Albright said Trump is Putin's patsy: "There is a great term the Soviets used to use: 'somebody being a useful idiot,'" Bill Clinton's former secretary of State told Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC. "I think that Trump falls into that category of people that are manipulated by the Russians … I have never seen a mind meld of this kind between the Russian leadership and a candidate for the presidency of the United States. … Trump was briefed in his intelligence briefings about what the Russians are doing, and he is playing their game."

-- Speaking of surrogates: Jay Z will headline a free Cleveland concert for Clinton the Friday before the election to boost turnout among young black voters. From the campaign advisory: "Tickets will be distributed on a first-come, first-served basis near the Cuyahoga County Board of elections." This is where early voting happens…

A roiling protest scene outside Donald Trump's campaign headquarters in Manhattan contrasts with the bland, anonymous scene outside Hillary Clinton's Brooklyn offices.

-- "A tale of two campaign headquarters: Clinton and Trump offices are miles away and worlds apart," by Marc Fisher: "One is a daily carnival watched over by the counterterrorism squad, bulky toughs in plainclothes and a cast of sign-waving protesters bellowing at one another. The other is a quiet bit of sidewalk in front of a nondescript high-rise surrounded by $3 million condos and a slew of government offices. [Trump and Clinton] set up their national campaign headquarters seven miles from each other. But, like the candidates themselves, the nerve centers of the two campaigns could hardly be more different — and that goes for the voters gathered outside them, too. The sidewalk outside Trump Tower is teeming with people who believe the country is close to the edge, barely kept from going under. Outside Clinton's offices … there is no crowd, and the people on the street show no enthusiasm — they're not particularly with her or with him. Beneath the shouting, there is one area of agreement: The conversations at home have gotten too volatile, too troubling, and many people say they've had to cut off all talk of politics."

POLLING ROUNDUP:

-- An NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll finds Clinton holding steady with her 5-point advantage over Trump, virtually unchanged since last week. Three in four Republicans say they see a lasting fracture in the party that could hinder his ability to win the presidency.

-- A Monmouth University poll shows a tie in NORTH CAROLINA, with good news for down-ballot Republicans. Gov. Pat McCrory is essentially even with his Democratic rival, while Sen. Richard Burr has a 6-point lead over Deborah Ross (49-43).

-- A PPP survey in North Carolina finds Democrats leading big in early voting: Among those who say they cast early ballots, 63 percent said they voted for Clinton. Just 37 percent said the same for Trump.

-- A Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll shows Clinton with an 8 point lead in MICHIGAN, down from a 13-point advantage last week. Trump has regained strength with independents and white voters in the state, after falling behind Clinton in both those demographics.

-- But Trump's chances of winning are "approaching zero," according to The Fix forecast. They reclassified Nevada from a "toss up" to "lean Democratic," moved Utah from a "lean Republican" to a "toss up," and shifted Texas from safely red to "lean" Republican. "Clinton now has 323 electoral votes either solidly for her or leaning her way. Trump has just 180. And, virtually all of the vulnerability from here until Nov. 8 is on Trump's side," Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake write.

Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C. during a debate with Democratic challenger Deborah Ross at UNC-TV studios in Research Triangle Park. (Gerry Broome/AP/Pool)

THE BATTLEGROUNDS:

-- "Burr's North Carolina duel could determine whether Republicans keep the Senate," by Mike DeBonis: "It wasn't supposed to come down to this. The Senate majority was supposed to be decided in New Hampshire and Ohio and Florida. But here stands Sen. Richard M. Burr, rallying fellow North Carolina Republicans with a lot more than his own 22-year congressional career on the line. 'I'm in the race of my life,' he tells hundreds of party activists. 'I've got the toughest race I've been in…' National Republican operatives fret that the fate of their majority might rest on Burr, a quirky, low-octane minister's son who is running a defiantly old-school race in a year that has left most standard campaign playbooks in ashes."

-- "A growing conflict over voting rights and ballot access is playing out in GEORGIA, where civil rights activists are trading accusations with Republican elected officials and where the stakes have risen considerably with the state's new status as a battleground," Vanessa Williams reports. "Activists said this month that as many as 100,000 Georgia voter-registration applications have not been processed. One of the state's largest counties offered only one early-voting site, prompting hours-long waits for many people at the polls last week. And the state's top election official has refused to extend voter-registration deadlines in counties hardest hit by Hurricane Matthew. The clashes in Georgia echo battles in recent months … in other states across the country, including North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio. 'Georgia is ground zero, if you will, when it comes to voter suppression and voting discrimination that we're seeing this election season,' said civil rights lawyer Kristen Clarke."

-- Trump is confounding many Republicans with a last-minute push in VIRGINIA. From Laura Vozzella: "His Saturday rally in Virginia Beach, part of a renewed push here that include $2 million television ad buy, flabbergasted political analysts and GOP strategists who have considered the swing state off the table for months. Trailing [Clinton] by double digits in the latest Virginia polls, Trump will dispatch key surrogates — his children — for a series of visits to Northern Virginia this week." And Trump's campaign said both he and Mike Pence will return to the state "a lot" before the election. Virginia-based GOP consultant Tucker Martin said Trump's chances were as low 'as they could go' in a state that sent Washington, Jefferson and six other native sons to the White House: 'He's at 29% in Va.,' Martin tweeted. 'Which is what you would get if you got nominated, burnt down Monticello, and then went on vacation until November.'"

-- Five down-ballot Republicans are threatening lawsuits against Democrats over campaign ads that link them to Trump. From HuffPost: "Reps. Bob Dold (R-Ill.), Mike Coffman (R-Colo.), David Jolly (R-Fla.), John Katko (R-N.Y.) and Brian Fitzpatrick, a Pennsylvania Republican running for an open seat that's currently occupied by his brother, contend that certain commercials paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee provide false or misleading information by connecting them to the GOP nominee. All five Republicans have, at some point, said they don't support Trump. And all five have a bit of a case: The DCCC ads do use some creativity to tie them to Trump."

-- "Clinton's Florida Secret Weapon: New Puerto Rican Immigrants." Bloomberg Politics' Steven Yaccino and Sasha Issenberg explore how the influx of Puerto Rican immigrants has changed the landscape of the archetypal battleground state: "Four years ago, President Obama won 60 percent of Florida's overall Hispanic vote, compared to Romney's 39 percent. This year, some national and Florida polls have pegged Trump's support among Latinos below 20 percent—a difference that could place this ultimate swing state securely into Clinton's column, if her campaign can reach its turnout goals. Florida's two million Hispanic voters now make up roughly 16 percent of registered voters in the state. And in contrast with South Florida's Cuban-Americans, a swing constituency both sides have long struggled over, Puerto Ricans in the state look this year to be an overwhelmingly Democratic bloc, requiring not ideological persuasion, but the arduous labor of registration and mobilization."

-- Clinton's campaign claims a 99 percent increase in Latino voting in Florida compared to this point in 2012, with 133,000 Hispanics already casting their ballots. Operatives said that in bellwether Pinellas County in Florida, which is 10% Latino, Democrats now maintain a voter registration advantage that's increased since March. With Latinos comprising 17% of the state's electorate in 2012, the numbers are very encouraging for the campaign. (Buzzfeed's Adrian Carrasquillo)

-- Marco Rubio to NBC: "I think (Trump) is doing better in Florida then people think he's doing, but we'll see. … It is going to be a very close race."

John McCain's up-and-down relationship with Donald Trump

-- John McCain is surviving the Trump headwinds. From Paul Kane in Gilbert, ARIZONA: "McCain, 80, can afford to think about his party's future largely because he is improbably well ahead in his bid for a sixth term. An Arizona Republic poll found McCain with a solid establishment coalition, garnering more than 75 percent of Republican voters, 50 percent of independents and 25 percent of Democrats. … Public polling is split on whether (the decision to break with Trump) has cost McCain among deeply conservative voters. But Democratic strategists continue to privately say this race is not among their top targets. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and its liberal super PAC allies have not spent on the airwaves here in the general election."

-- Voters in TEXAS lined up in "record numbers" to cast early ballots on Monday. From the Houston Chronicle: There were 67,471 in-person voters in Harris County, shattering the record of 47,093 set in 2012 for the first day of early voting. "Another 61,543 mail ballots had been returned as of Monday, bringing the total number of early voters so far to 129,014 in Texas' most populous county.Records were also broken by substantial margins in counties such as Dallas and Tarrant, which reported first-day turnouts of about 43,000 each." But enthusiasm was not the driving factor for many voters: "We just want to get it over with," Sam Tabb said as he stood in line at a polling station in Pasadena. "We will be glad when this whole thing is over. It's just been a real zoo. In my lifetime, it's probably the worst election ever." Brandy Holmes, a 31-year-old engineer who said she'd marked Monday on her calendar weeks ago, echoed that sentiment. "Let's just get this over with."

-- "Trump dogged by persistent weakness in Milwaukee area," from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert: The political divide in WISCONSIN between big and small communities has widened dramatically in 2016, and that trend has hobbled Trump's efforts to put this battleground state into play. Call it Trump's 'Milwaukee problem.' His strength in Wisconsin's smaller counties, rural areas and blue-collar communities has failed to erase a statewide gap between him and Hillary Clinton. The reason is quite simple in geographic terms: Trump's weakness in the Milwaukee media market, which has persisted throughout the summer and fall. Trump is performing much worse than [Romney] four years ago in both the red and blue parts of southeastern Wisconsin … Trump's candidacy has accentuated a problem that was dogging his party before he came along: an erosion of support in the country's most densely populated places."

-- Trump's lack of a ground game will make it harder for his lawyers to challenge any irregularities. "That could leave the party with less data about its voters than in past elections and hamstring legal efforts in the event of recount battles," Brent Kendall, Reid J. Epstein and Byron Tau write in the Journal. "Such information, combined with historical voting data, can help lawyers identify precincts with voting abnormalities. Without good data, one lawyer noted, GOP officials 'would be at a disadvantage.'"

Evan Bayh meets with a volunteer at a field office in Indianapolis. (Michael Conroy/AP)

-- A great illustration of why folks feel the system is rigged against them --> "Bayh lunched with bank lobbyists on day of '08 bailout vote," by Politico's John Bresnahan: "Former Indiana senator and longtime Banking Committee member Evan Bayh held a series of private meetings with financial services industry executives and lobbyists throughout 2008 — just as Wall Street was collapsing and big banks were seeking a bailout from Washington … One of the engagements — which included lunches, dinners and golf outings — happened the day of the Wall Street bailout vote. On Oct. 1, 2008, when the Senate voted to approve the $700 billion rescue package, Bayh held a 'Lunch with Supporters' that included lobbyists for the financial services industry, his schedule shows. Other meetings with industry lobbyists and officials took place in the weeks and months up to and following the bailout vote."

PUNDITS WEIGH IN:

-- Wall Street Journal Washington bureau chief Gerald F. Seib says the winner of the election won't have a mandate because there's been no debate about policy: "The Tax Foundation estimates a $6 trillion difference in the amount of federal revenue that would be generated over the next 10 years between Clinton and Trump's tax plans. You almost never hear it discussed. Which illustrates in a nutshell the real problem with this year's campaign: It is almost devoid of serious policy debate. And that, in turn means it isn't producing any clear mandate for those who must try to govern after it ends. [The] consequences will become clear only when the calendar turns to 2017 and Washington tries to break out of the dysfunction that has made everybody so angry in 2016 … At this point, the election's most likely outcome is a White House in Democratic hands, a House in Republican hands and a Senate so evenly divided between the two parties that nobody is really in charge."

-- "There is no reconstitution of conservative influence or the appeal of the Republican Party without incorporating some updated version of compassionate conservatism," says former Bush speechwriter Michael Gerson. He writes in his column that conservatives must "get over their aversion" to the only approach that has brought them presidential victory since 1988: "The new right has gotten what it always wanted — an arsonist as its presidential nominee. No limits. No mercy. Burn it down. Lock her up. Lock her up. The outcome, in all likelihood, will be to give her the keys to the White House. And to cause lasting damage to the very idea of a responsible, governing conservatism. Will future Republican primary voters — marinated in the anger and conspiracy theories of conservative media — prove capable of choosing a reform-conservative candidate? On this question hangs the future of a party that has earned a nation's contempt."

-- "Trump did not create the conditions ripe for his candidacy," Business Insider's Oliver Darcy and Pamela Engel argue. "The conservative media industrial complex successfully managed over the years to lock the Republican Party away from access to its own base. Those who consumed conservative media were taught not to trust politicians or, even worse, the mainstream media. As a result, party leaders were beholden to a handful of individuals who controlled the conservative media and, thus, held the keys to their voters. Republicans allowed their base to be held captive by a conservative press that moved their base further right, pushed conspiracy theories … and set unrealistic exceptions for them while in office. So it should not be surprising that when Trump came along in 2016 and aggressively echoed this rhetoric, a significant portion of the base accepted him."

WAPO HIGHLIGHTS:

-- LONG READ OF THE DAY: "How police censorship shaped Hollywood," by Alyssa Rosenberg: "The police story is one of the elemental dramas of American popular culture, the place we face down whatever crimes frighten us most in a given era and grapple with what we want from the cops who are supposed to stop those crimes. 'Dragnet's' Joe Friday bolstered public faith in law and order in the '50s. 'Dirty Harry' Callahan stoked terror and rage about the violent crime wave that began in the '60s. And John McClane of 'Die Hard' awed audiences when he singlehandedly saved a whole office tower from ruthless criminals in the 1980s. If these were only fantasies, they would still be powerful. But the ideas that popular culture embeds in the public consciousness about policing remain after the story is over. This [series] examines the evolving relationship between police officers and the communities they are supposed to serve; the way Hollywood shapes our expectations for shootings by police; the entertainment industry's embrace of a more violent style of policing during the drug war; and the changing composition of police forces in an increasingly diverse society."

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

Republicans pounced on news of the Obamacare premium increases:

The Speaker:

McConnell's chief spokesman:

RNC communications director:

Ohio Sen. Rob Portman highlighted his opponent's praise for the law:

John McCain got an ad up quickly:

Conservative radio host:

Republican operatives also bemoaned the lack of focus on the issue:

After news of premium increases broke, Evan Bayh was criticized for this tweet:

The political director for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce:

Some perspective from health care reporters Sarah Kliff and Jeff Young:

The New York Times has been keeping a list of all the people Trump' insulted and put it in yesterday's print edition:

Another taste of what reporters cope with at Trump rallies:

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John and Cindy McCain are having an interesting time on the campaign trail:

GOOD READ FROM ELSEWHERE:

-- New York Times, "The Pentagon's 'Terminator Conundrum': Robots That Could Kill on Their Own," by Matthew Rosenberg and John Markoff: "The small drone, with its six whirring rotors, swept past the replica of a Middle Eastern village and closed in on a mosque-like structure, its camera scanning for targets. No humans were remotely piloting the drone ... But armed with advanced artificial intelligence software, it had been transformed into a robot that could find and identify the half-dozen men carrying replicas of AK-47s around the village and pretending to be insurgents. Almost unnoticed outside defense circles, the Pentagon has put artificial intelligence at the center of its strategy to maintain the United States' position as the world's dominant military power. It is spending billions of dollars to develop what it calls autonomous and semiautonomous weapons and to build an arsenal stocked with the kind of weaponry that until now has existed only in Hollywood movies and science fiction, raising alarm among scientists and activists concerned by the implications of a robot arms race."

HOT ON THE LEFT

"NAACP seeks federal probe after noose put on black student," from the AP: "The president of the Mississippi NAACP is demanding a federal hate crime investigation after the parents of a black high school student said as many as four white students put a noose around their son's neck at school. 'No child should be walking down the hall or in a locker room and be accosted with a noose around their neck,' president Derrick Johnson said … 'This is 2016, not 1916. This is America. This is a place where children should go to school and feel safe in their environment.' The NAACP said the incident happened during a break in football practice and that the noose was 'yanked backward' while on the student's neck. 'There is absolutely a role for federal law enforcement,' said Johnson, who wants the students tried as adults."

HOT ON THE RIGHT:

"Ceremony honoring police before HS game sends 'frightening message,' ACLU says," by New Jersey Online: "A ceremony honoring law enforcement, military and first responders before a high school football game Friday night drew criticism from the [ACLU] of New Jersey because of an underlying 'frightening message.' The ceremony was held before a highly-anticipated Shore Conference clash between two topped ranked teams in the state ... [and] was meant to respond to pro athletes who have taken a knee during pre-game performances of the national anthem … Jasmine Crenshaw, an organizer with the ACLU-NJ, said the event sends a 'frightening message' that law enforcement will not tolerate people expressing their views on the nation's 'history of unequal treatment and systematic oppression.'"

DAYBOOK:

On the campaign trail: Clinton speaks in Coconut Creek, Fla.; Kaine fundraises in New York, N.Y. Biden rallies supporters in Pittsburgh, Pa. Trump campaigns in Sanford and Tallahassee, Fla.; Pence stops in Swanton, Ashland and Marietta, Ohio.

At the White House: Obama attends a DSCC fundraiser at a private home in Los Angeles later this morning and then flies back to Washington. Joe Biden flies to Pittsburgh for an 11:30 a.m. Clinton campaign event at Chatham University and then comes back immediately to D.C.

On Capitol Hill: The Senate and House are out.

QUOTE OF THE DAY:

"I may write a book. This might disappoint you: it won't be a tell-all book." – Joe Biden discussing his 2017 plans, per the Toledo Blade

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

-- Start bringing out those winter coats – the Capital Weather Gang forecasts the coldest conditions in months (and some potentially frosty conditions tonight!) "Sunny skies and cooler than yesterday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Brisk winds from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 offer some slight wind chill effects at times."

-- A D.C. judge decided to allow the sale of a Northwest Washington nursing home to the neighboring Sidwell Friends School, delivering a blow to residents in allowing the $32.5 million transaction to go forward. The nursing home is scheduled to close on December 15.(Emma Brown)

-- The Virginia Board of Health scrapped regulations that were designed to shut down abortion clinics. In an 11-4 vote, the board decided that requiring doctors to have admitting privileges at nearby hospitals is "unconstitutional" under a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down similar rules in Texas. (Laura Vozzella)

-- Metro rolled out a series of recommendations aimed at stopping trains from running red lights, which puts passengers at risk. A panel called for slower train speeds and installing brighter bulbs in problem areas. (Faiz Siddiqui)

-- The Smithsonian's Board of Regents announced philanthropist and financier David Rubenstein will become chairman of the board next year, succeeding John McCarter as he completes the end of his three-year term. In addition to Rubenstein, the Regents elected AOL co-founder Steve Case as vice-chairman, and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation president and chief executive Risa J. Lavizzo-Mourey as the third member of the executive committee. They will begin their three-year terms at the end of January. (Peggy McGlone)

-- An ice cream truck driver was shot and "seriously wounded" in a mysterious incident in Southeast Washington. It is unclear who shot the man, witnesses said, noting that it appeared the victim had been shot elsewhere before driving his boxy green truck to Alabama Avenue. (Peter Hermann)

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

President Obama continued to poke fun at Trump during an appearance on ABC's "Jimmy Kimmel Live," saying that he cannot help but laugh at the Republican nominee during debates. "Most of the time," Obama told Kimmel, prompting cheers from the audience. "I don't tweet at 3 a.m. about people who insult me." (CNN)

Just like the last time he was on Kimmel's show, Obama agreed to read "mean tweets" posted about him online. It's a funny two-minute segment: