News Reporter: The Daily 202: Why Florida is Trump's best swing state

Why Florida is Trump's best swing state

Donald Trump campaigns in Jacksonville earlier this month. (Mark Wallheiser/Getty Images)

THE BIG IDEA: Florida is always the swingiest of swing states, and once again it is ground zero in the presidential contest. The twist this year is that Donald Trump runs uniquely well there.

While Hillary Clinton has opened up durable double-digit leads in states like Virginia and Colorado, polls show a much tighter contest in Florida.

This is a change. Florida used to more closely mirror the country. Recall George Bush versus Al Gore in 2000.

Quinnipiac University published polling last week that showed the race statistically tied in the Sunshine State (46-45), even as Trump trailed by 4 points in Ohio and 10 points in Pennsylvania. "The closeness of the Florida race is seen inside the numbers," said Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown. "Independent voters are split 42-41. … Clinton and Trump have the same favorable rating among voters (39 percent)."

Florida is the only battleground that moved in Trump's direction after both conventions. Seven states were surveyed by NBC, the Wall Street Journal and Marist before and after. In North Carolina, Trump went from down 6 points to down 9 points; in Virginia, from down 9 to down 13; in Colorado, from down 8 to down 14. In Florida, he went from down 7 to down 5.

Down 5 points is obviously not a good place to be, and the last poll to show Trump ahead in Florida came out in early July. But it's one of many data points that underscore his relative strength down there.

Trump is very popular in the Panhandle. Here's a view of the crowd he drew in Pensacola. (Charles Ommanney/The Washington Post)

-- I asked two strategists who have a proven record of winning statewide what's going on:

"It is a function of my party's struggles with whites," said Steve Schale, who ran Florida for Barack Obama. "For every point of share we lose (i.e. Obama getting 37, Clinton getting 36), she needs to win 4 points more with Hispanics. If we were approaching 2008 levels with whites, she'd be up by 6 to 7 points (we won by 3)."

There are around 400,000 fewer white Democrats in Florida than there were in 2008, driven by rural whites in the Panhandle changing parties and newcomers tending to be more conservative. "So now you have a Democratic base which is proportionally much more black and Hispanic, and thus, far more predictable," explained Schale, who is based in Tallahassee. "In the same way, the GOP base has gotten really white, as new Hispanics are choosing 'D' or No Party Affiliation. … Even as you look at a population that is undergoing dynamic change, other cultural and economic factors, as well as white migration into Florida, seems to balance it back out."

"Trump's brashness sells in Florida better than in most places," said Curt Anderson, the architect of Republican Gov. Rick Scott's victories in 2010 and 2014. "There are quite a few older white folks in Florida who think the federal government should be closed down, and think that the only thing worse than Barack Obama is Hillary Clinton. … So when Trump says impolitic things—things that may be detrimental to him in Wisconsin—in Florida there are a lot folks on the golf course early in the morning and at the buffet at 5 p.m. who are saying 'Damn right!'"

"If this race is close, Trump will win Florida," adds Anderson, a partner at OnMessage Inc. "Count on that and write it down. It is possible that Trump could lose the race decisively and still carry Florida."

A Trump supporter paid homage to the candidate as he spoke in Miami Beach last week. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

-- Like many of Florida's septuagenarians, Trump is a New Yorker who owns property in the state and enjoys wintering there. It was those folks shouting "damn right" on the golf course who helped Trump decisively crush Marco Rubio in the March Republican primary, ending the home-state senator's campaign. But it's the general election now. So there are a lot more minority voters, which is why Rubio, who decided to run for reelection, now significantly outperforms Trump in every poll. (Marco will announce today that he raised $5.5 million in the past seven weeks and has $4.6 million cash on hand…)

It should come as no surprise that Trump's resiliency can be chalked up mainly to his strength among white men. A Monmouth University poll published Tuesday showed Clinton up 9 points, 48 percent to 39 percent, in Florida. Trump pulled just 19 percent among Hispanic, black and Asian voters (who make up about one-third of the electorate). While Trump led among white voters overall by 14 points (51-37), he was up among white men by 40 points (64-24) and white women by just 10 points (49-39). "The gender split among white voters in Florida is huge," said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray. "Men are drawn to Trump's message while women are not. These offsetting factors give Clinton the edge."

-- To be sure, some of this is bigger than Trump. Florida has leaned a little more Republican than the country overall in the last few cycles. In 2012, Obama won the national vote by 4 points but Florida by just 1 point. In 2008, Obama's national margin was 7 points, compared with 3 points in Florida. "So we should expect Florida to be a bit more Republican than the nation overall," says The Post's in-house pollster Scott Clement. "Virginia, on the other hand, was extremely close to the nation overall in the last two elections. Both were +4 in 2012, and in 2008, Virginia was +6 while the nation was +7 Obama."

-- There is no path at all for Trump without Florida's 29 electoral votes, especially as other states move away from him. This is why Clinton and Trump have both spent four days campaigning in the state since mid-June.

It's no coincidence that Hillary Clinton chose Miami as the site to announce the Spanish-speaking Tim Kaine as her vice-presidential choice last month. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

-- What you must understand to win: "Florida is a state, not a place." That's the main argument in a handy primer that Schale, the Democrat who worked for Obama, posted on his personal blog last week. The state lacks much commonality or shared experience, and almost everyone has come from somewhere else. "The old saying about Florida is you go north to go south," he writes. "North Florida feels like the traditional south, with large rural areas, conservative towns like Jacksonville and Pensacola, liberal college towns, etc., while the rest of the state feels like wherever it came from. Go to Tampa, or most anywhere on the west coast, and there is more of a Midwestern feel – as most who got there, came down the I-75 corridor. The east coast can feel more northeastern in attitude, homage to the I-95 corridor that brought them here. There is also a coastal/interior split."

Schale divides the state – which has 20 million residents and 9 million voters – into five commonwealths:

North Florida (I-10 corridor, running from Jacksonville to Pensacola, is 17 percent of the vote.)
Orlando (The fastest growing media market in the state already has one-fifth of its population.)
Tampa and Southwest Florida (One-third of the vote, roughly the size of Missouri)
Southeast Florida (The Palm Beach media market, plus Broward County, has the population of Oregon, or about 20% of Florida.)
Miami ("85 percent of the population is non-white, and that number is growing rapidly. It is really its own city-state, much more like a Hong Kong, or a Singapore, than it is a city within a state. Roughly the population of Nevada … In terms of voter performance, the area makes up just under 11 percent of the statewide vote, a difference which points to the sheer number of non-citizen residents.")

"Florida isn't competitive because of its unique nature, like an Iowa," he concludes, "but it becomes competitive in sum when you add up all of its many parts."

Welcome to the Daily 202, PowerPost's morning newsletter. Written with Breanne Deppisch (@b_deppy) and with contributions from Elise Viebeck (@eliseviebeck).

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:

-- Trump opened the door to racial profiling during a Fox News town hall that aired last night, suggesting he would be in favor of such tactics in order to stop terrorist attacks. "Frankly, the Muslims have to help us, because they see what's going on in their community," he told Sean Hannity, saying they bear "some responsibility" for not proactively flagging potential threats. "If they're not going to help us, they're to blame also." Trump proceeded to repeat his dubious claim that neighbors saw bombs in the home of the San Bernardino terrorists and said nothing. "Look, we have -- whether it's racial profiling or politically correct, we'd better get smart," he said. "We are letting tens of thousands of people into our country. We don't know what the hell we're doing." Trump also suggested such tactics should be on the table during a CBS News interview in June, saying profiling "is something we have to start thinking about doing as a country." (Aaron Blake)

Hannity asked Trump about Orlando shooter Omar Mateen's father: "What do we do when we find somebody that has extreme views?" Trump replied, "I'd throw him out." Watch the clip:

Trump says of Omar Mateen's father: 'I'd throw him out'

-- The Clinton campaign is launching a new TV ad today to attack Trump for refusing to release his tax returns. It opens with a clip of him saying he'd "absolutely" release the returns if he ran for president. Then then are clips of him saying it's none of your business when asked his tax rate, George Will floating that he doesn't want to release the records because they show close ties to Russian oligarchs and Mitt Romney suggesting that he's hiding a bombshell. The spot will run on national cable. Clinton released her returns last week. Rep. Mark Sanford (R-S.C.) wrote an op-ed on Monday warning that Trump will lose his support if he doesn't release the returns.

As part of the coordinated push to hammer this message, Democratic Sens. Ron Wyden (Ore.) and Chris Murphy (Conn.) will hold a conference call in a few hours to demand an up-or-down vote on their bill, "the Presidential Tax Transparency Act," which would require all major party nominees to release their tax returns.

Watch the new Clinton ad:

Absolutely | Hillary Clinton

-- Two car bombs were detonated in eastern Turkey a few hours ago, killing six and wounding at least 219 others. Both targeted police stations. Authorities quickly blamed the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the AP reports.

Firefighting helicopters work to tame the blaze in San Bernardino county. (Reuters/Patrick T Fallon

GET SMART FAST:

Hundreds of firefighters were deployed to battle a monster wildfire in southern California, after flames forced more than 80,000 people from their homes. Officials say they have "zero" containment on the 30,000-acre blaze. (William Dauber and Darryl Fears)
Louisiana continues to grapple with flooding throughout the state, with thousands still holed up in shelters, unaware of when they will be able to return home. The Red Cross called it the "worst natural disaster to strike the U.S." since Hurricane Sandy. (Emma Brown, Ashley Cusick and Mark Berman)
Uber is launching its first fleet of self-driving cars in Pittsburgh this month, allowing the vehicles – which will be supervised by humans in the driver's seat – to be summoned with "just the tap of a button." (Bloomberg)
A new report from the Justice Department charges federal inmates with making thousands of defective combat helmets for the U.S. military, using unauthorized and degraded materials to construct the protective headgear. The Defense Department said it is "reviewing" the findings for future action. (Dan Lamothe)
Amtrak Police Chief Polly Hanson is under investigation for fraud and ethical violations stemming from a counterterrorism contract she helped oversee. Allegations emerged that she awarded the deal to her boyfriend and hid the nature of their relationship. (Michael Laris and Martine Powers)
A congressional ethics panel recommended an investigation of Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), saying there is a "substantial reason" to believe that he broke House rules by providing his ousted chief of staff with a three-month severance. (Karoun Demirjian)
The Dallas gunman who killed five police officers last month had his firearm taken away from him while serving in the military, according to newly-released Army documents. His commanding officer recommended his service weapon be taken after he was accused of sexual harassment by another soldier "out of an abundance of caution." (Wall Street Journal)
The 35-year-old man suspected in the killing of a Queens imam and his assistant was also charged with crashing into an Iraqi man and fleeing the scene 10 minutes later. Investigators said they have not uncovered a motive in either act of violence, but they have not ruled out the possibility of charging him with a hate crime. (Abigail Hauslohner and Alice Crites)
Huntington, West Virginia, became ground zero of the U.S. heroin epidemic when 26 people overdosed Monday on the drug in a four-hour span. (The number is particularly shocking when compared to the town's total population of 49,000, Christopher Ingraham notes – to scale, it'd be the equivalent of 4,400 people overdosing in New York City.)
The U.S. Coast Guard evacuated more than 500 people from a cruise ship after it caught fire near Puerto Rico. Officials are unsure what sparked the blaze, but they have towed the ship to a nearby port for investigation. (NBC News)
The Federal Reserve governors were heartened by the resilience of the U.S. economy after the Brexit vote, but there's little consensus on when to raise rates next, according to minutes from last month's meeting. (Ylan Q. Mui)
Cisco Systems announced plans to lay off 5,500 employees, or 7 percent of its workforce, as it struggles with sluggish demand. (Reuters)
Target said it is preparing to spend $20 million in the coming months to add single-stall bathrooms along with men's and women's restrooms in its stores, a move meant to accommodate shoppers who have expressed concern about the retailers' policy of allowing customers and employees to use the bathroom that corresponds to the gender they identify with. (Sarah Halzack)
Nick Denton announced he is leaving Gawker after its sale to Univision closes. Denton, who founded the news and gossip site 14 years ago, told staffers it would be "too much of a liability" for him to continue at the helm. (CNN Money)
Turkey announced it will release more than 35,000 inmates from its prison system in order to free up space for the flood of new detainees after last month's failed coup. Officials said eligible prisoners will live under parole-like supervision, and no one convicted of a violent crime will be set free. (Erin Cunningham)
North Korea's deputy ambassador to Britain defected to South Korea with his family, the latest in a series of high-profile escapes from the authoritarian country. The move could portend an intelligence windfall for the U.S., Anthony Faiola and Anna Fifield report.
South Sudan's former vice president has fled the country, evacuating after what a spokesman referred to as "a botched assassination attempt." It's a blow to the peace process as the country's civil war rages on. (Kevin Sieff)
The head of Egypt's state-run television and radio stations barred eight female anchors from appearing on the air because he says they are overweight. Each was given a month-long suspension and ordered to go on a diet. (New York Times)
Fans of one of India's most renowned actors often celebrate his onscreen achievements by bathing his pictures in thousands of gallons of milk. So strong is their devotion that it has resulted in milk shortages in some parts of the country. (New York Times)

U.S Olympic swimmer Jack Conger is removed from his flight back to the U.S. (Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

CONTROVERSY ROILS DAY 12 OF THE OLYMPICS:

-- Brazilian authorities poked several holes in the story of U.S. swimmer Ryan Lochte and teammates who claim to have been robbed at gunpoint. Two of those swimmers, Jack Conger and Gunnar Bentz, were removed from their plane by Brazilian authorities as they tried to fly back to the U.S. And Lochte, already back home, altered his story a bit: He now tells NBC they "had been robbed while their taxi was at a gas station, not pulled over on a street, and that a gun, while brandished, had not actually been pressed to his forehead." (Des Bieler)

-- A French pole vaulter issued a public apology after he compared his experience getting booed in Rio to what black sprinter Jesse Owens went through in 1936 when competing in Nazi Germany. "I made a big mistake with that," he said. But the unforgiving crowd booed him even louder after he won the silver medal, causing him to break down in tears. (Marissa Payne)

Kristi Castlin, Brianna Rollins, and Nia Ali celebrate with American flags after their win. (Cameron Spencer/Getty)

OUR ATHLETES KEEP WINNING:

-- The U.S. won ALL THREE MEDALS in the women's 100m hurdles, making history as Brianna Rollins crossed the line just ahead of teammates Nia Ali and Kristi Castlin -- on the eve of her 25th birthday. "How SWEEP it was," Des Bieler says of their win. Indeed.

-- Unsurprisingly, Usain Bolt cruised into a win in the men's 200m semifinal with a time of 19.78 seconds. He'll compete in the finals today for a chance to win his third consecutive gold in the event – an honor he also earned this week in the 100m race.

-- The U.S. women's water polo team advanced to the finals after beating Hungary.

-- The U.S. men's basketball team beat Argentina 105-78, advancing to the semis against Spain.

Katie Ledecky is thanked by a United Airlines employee after arriving at Dulles. (Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post)

-- Bethesda native Katie Ledecky, the greatest female swimmer of all time, received a hero's welcome at Dulles. From Kelyn Soong: "Fans continued to swarm Ledecky as she slowly made her way over to her news conference, where she spoke about her next athletic chapter (swimming for Stanford), her medals (they weigh more than the one from London) and what she is looking forward to most ('eating a home-cooked meal and sleeping in my own bed'). She then walked out of the airport alongside her parents and brother, with a smile plastered on her face and more hugs to give. Here, among her friends and family, she was just another teenager who needed to head home to go shopping for college."

Olympic Games Communications Director Mario Andrada has been the face of calamity in RIo. (John MacDougall/AFP/Getty Images)

BRAZIL CONTINUES TO FAIL AS A HOST:

-- "Meet the man with the hardest job at the Olympics," by Adam Kilgore: "Mario Andrada paced through the Olympic press center Monday afternoon, explaining why he has no time to talk just now. 'There is an expression we have in Brazil,' he said. 'When you have a hard job, you kill a lion a day.' I have two lions to kill.' This month, Andrada might have the hardest job on the planet: He is the communications director for Rio 2016, tasked with answering for the mistakes and calamities of the Olympics in front of the world's media. His owlish features, black frames and gray buzz cut have become the public face of small disaster. When a bullet landed in the equestrian media center, Andrada rushed to Deodoro and held a news conference. When the diving pool turned green, Andrada offered a series of accounts for five days. At one point, trying for levity, Andrada compared the color of the pool to the Brazilian flag. He later apologized. 'I make several mistakes,' Andrada said. "I usually talk too much. I explain too much. It's a bit of my way.'"

-- A member of the British Olympic team was robbed at gunpoint. U.K. officials said the athlete is unharmed, but they instructed everyone in their delegation not to go out at night. (Paul Schemm)

-- Brazilian cops arrested the Irish Olympic chief as part of a scalping probe: The 71-year-old was charged with helping sell tickets at an "astronomical" markup, with $436 Olympic Ceremony passes going for as much as $8,000. (Dom Phillips)

-- And the mother of a U.S. volleyball player had her suitcase blown up by Brazilian authorities, who reportedly thought an extra shampoo bottle and phone charger looked like a bomb. "The handle was nowhere," she told the New York Times. "It was completely blown up. They used some sort of wet bomb, I think, because everything was wet. Some of the clothes were salvageable, but some were melted. Some had holes. My American flag was melted. And all the toiletries with caps had their caps blown off." Bizarre.

Trump participates in a roundtable discussion on national security in Trump Tower yesterday. From left are Ret. Army Gen. Mike Flynn, Trump and Ret. Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg. (Gerald Herbert/AP)

THE DAILY DONALD:

-- Trump attended his first classified security briefing at the FBI's field office tower in Manhattan -- just hours after questioning the skills of the U.S. intelligence community. Asked on "Fox and Friends" if he "trusted intelligence," Trump replied, "Not so much from the people that have been doing it for our country. I mean, look what's happened over the last 10 years. I mean, it's been catastrophic. In fact, I won't use some of the people that are standards ... but I won't use them because they've made such bad decisions."

-- The GOP speechwriter who drafted the remarks for the "Benghazi Mom" on the first night of the Republican convention last month says he may now vote for Clinton: "The reality is, I cannot vote for Donald Trump," Richard J. Cross III writes in a Baltimore Sun op-ed. "Weeks after the end of the 2016 GOP convention, I am confronted by an inconvenient fact: Despite what I wrote in that nationally televised speech about Hillary Clinton, I may yet have to vote for her because of the epic deficiencies of my own party's nominee. I have never voted for a Democrat for federal office, but when I hear the president criticize the GOP nominee, I can't honestly disagree with him."

-- Former General Motors CEO Daniel Akerson says he too plans to vote for Clinton in the fall, complaining that Trump has appealed to the "lowest common denominators" in our society: "Trump has resorted to schoolyard name-calling and skewed the truth too many times," he writes in an op-ed for today's Post. "I simply do not believe that Trump could stand tall like John F. Kennedy did during the Cuban Missile Crisis, demonstrate the strength of Ronald Reagan in bringing about the end of the Cold War or articulate the vision of George H.W. Bush to support a unified Germany when the wall came down."

-- Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, a top Trump surrogate, says she was suffering "a stumble of the tongue" during a radio interview when she called Clinton a "lying killer": "People want a fighter. They're tired of the lying killer, uh, Hillary Clinton and Bill Clintons of the world," Brewer said on KTAR. Later, she defended herself to Buzzfeed. She said she was "trying to say Hillary Clinton," Brewer said. "It was a stumble of the tongue."

-- "The Republican Party this week launched an election drive to encourage American citizens who live in Israel — especially those from ... Florida — to vote for Trump," USA Today's Shira Rubin reports from Tel Aviv. "The Israeli pro-Trump movement, whose slogan is 'In Israel's interest,' has grown exponentially, especially among young religious American expatriates 'fed up with the elites,' said Michal Adar, who is originally from Atlanta and now lives in Raanana. 'There's been a lot of disappointment in Obama, which has translated into support for Trump.' … Republicans Abroad Israel estimates that 100,000 Israelis voted in the last presidential election, with 85% supporting Mitt Romney. … Top Israeli officials met last week with David Friedman, Trump's adviser on Israel. In addition, the free newspaper Israel Today, funded by [Sheldon Adelson], has run pro-Trump editorials."

Newly-installed campaign manager Kellyanne Conway confers with the demoted and marginalized Paul Manafort at Trump Tower yesterday. (Carlo Allegri/Reuters)

FOLLOW-UPS ON THE TRUMP SHAKE-UP:

-- Trump's staff changes highlight "a candidate who has lost his way," Dan Balz writes.

-- How it went down --> Bob Costa, Jose DelReal and Jenna Johnson have the backstory: "Trump's decision developed over the weekend as he traveled to the Hamptons on Long Island for a Saturday evening fundraiser at the home of Woody Johnson, the wealthy Republican benefactor who owns the New York Jets. According to three Republicans familiar with that event, Trump was confronted by several supporters, including mega-donor Rebekah Mercer, about news reports on his advisers' desire to tame his personality. Trump was visibly infuriated at the news stories … and he conferred with Mercer about potential steps he might take to remake his campaign and populate his inner circle with voices more like his own. Bannon's and [new campaign manager] KellyAnne Conway's names soon came up. Mercer, the daughter of hedge-fund titan Robert Mercer, spoke highly of both. (The Mercer family is a prominent investor in Breitbart News as well as in a super PAC opposing Clinton and has worked with Conway.)"

"By Sunday, as Manafort appeared on network television shows, Trump was stewing and dialing up his friends … He connected with his son-in-law and trusted adviser Jared Kushner, who had been on vacation in Europe. Then he called Conway and Bannon, ruminating aloud on how they could help him jolt his stalled candidacy. … Bannon met with Trump later Sunday at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, N.J., to 'lay out his new thinking for the campaign team.' Bannon and Conway, who are friendly, both told Trump they'd be willing to work together and that they understood Trump's vision for the rest of the campaign … They told Trump they would be dedicated to sharpening his message rather than handling him."

-- What now? "Trump will devote himself primarily to five states — Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania — where he hopes big rallies and lots of TV hits will excite his base.

-- "Shuffling Deck Chairs on the USS Trump" is how Karl Rove describes the shake-up. "The main problem with the Trump campaign has been Mr. Trump," Rove writes in today's Wall Street Journal. "He is an unguided missile, prone to veer of course and hit friendly forces. If his newly installed team was recruited to 'Let Trump Be Trump' because they believe his attacks and populism have been too muted, then an epic loss could be the result. … In the movie 'City Slickers,' Jack Palance tells Billy Crystal that the secret of life is 'One thing, just one thing. You stick to that, and everything else don't mean s—.' When Mr. Crystal asks what that 'one thing' is, the old cowboy replies, 'That's what you gotta figure out.' As Trump shakes up his campaign's management team for the second time in two months, maybe the new crowd—and, more importantly, Mr. Trump—will finally figure out that the 'one thing' of a presidential campaign is message discipline."

-- This race is gelling, and Donald's fate may already be baked in the cake. "No matter how much Trump insists voters won't make up their minds until after Labor Day, strategists of both stripes warn that late summer is when negative narratives of a candidate can be indelibly impressed upon the electorate," Tracy Jan writes on the front page of the Boston Globe. "Beware the Ides of August," warned David Wade, a former longtime aide to Secretary of State John Kerry. "Now it is a definitional period."

Kerry was videotaped windsurfing off Nantucket in the summer of 2004, and it was devastating. Remember the ensuing ad?

Historical Campaign Ad: Windsurfing (Bush-Cheney '04)

Get to know the guy who is now in charge:

-- Trump has "put his campaign in the hands of a true believer who promises to amplify the GOP nominee's nationalist message and reinforce his populist impulses," Karen Tumulty and David Weigel write. "'Steve Bannon is a fighter's fighter. He is somebody who wants to be the first boots on the beach. In the military, it's called the tip of the spear,' said David Bossie, a conservative activist. It was Bossie who five years ago introduced Trump to Bannon, the top executive of the new media clarion of the establishment-¬loathing right, Breitbart News. Breitbart has since become a champion of Trump's candidacy — in large part because Stephen K. Bannon himself believes it represents a cause much bigger than a political campaign. Bannon sees Trumpism as part of a global movement that will continue, no matter who is sitting in the Oval Office next January, those close to him say."

"Former employees of Breitbart describe a work environment that mirrors the Trump campaign," Tumulty and Weigel add. "Reporters who couldn't break or match news were chewed out with profanities; reporters on his good side were drawn into a hypercompetitive battle to own the news. All were encouraged to sign contracts with strict nondisclosure agreements. Several described Bannon pushing reluctant reporters onto stories by telling them: 'I didn't get where I am by being a Boy Scout.'"

-- Bannon "has made little secret of his desire to frighten Americans out of complacency, fusing relentless provocation and a hodgepodge of conservative ideas to make the case for rebellion against the political order," Michael Barbaro writes in the New York Times. "Fear is a good thing," Bannon said in a 2010 interview. "Fear is going to lead you to take action."

Trump's new "Campaign CEO" Stephen Bannon listens to Trump talk at Trump Tower yesterday. (Carlo Allegri/Reuters)

-- Bigger picture, hiring Bannon completes the Breitbart-ization of Trump:

-- "Bannon's ascension is the predictable consummation of a romance he ardently pursued," said former Breitbart editor Ben Shapiro, who resigned from the site in protest earlier this year. "He'll tell Trump he's doing a fantastic job even if he isn't. That's how Bannon Svengalis political figures and investors — by investing them in his personal genius, then hollowing them out from the inside. There's a reason Sarah Palin went from legitimate political figure to parody artist to Trump endorser, with Steve Bannon standing alongside her every step of the way."

-- "The campaign overhaul means that Trump is choosing to end his campaign living in the alternate reality that Breitbart creates for him on a daily basis," Stephen F. Hayes writes in The Weekly Standard, "where everything he does is the best, where everyone who questions him is an idiot or a traitor, where big rallies portend electoral victories, where House speaker Paul Ryan is the problem with modern conservatism, where polls that find him down are fixed, where elections he loses are rigged, where immigration and trade are the nation's most pressing issues, and where, truly, Trump alone can fix it all. Hiring Bannon allows Trump to seek external validation of what already exists in his own mind. It's Trump's way of channeling himself."

-- From a prominent conservative radio host in Wisconsin:

-- "The Breitbart staff has at times demonstrated an unusual amount of comfort with the Trump campaign," Buzzfeed's McKay Coppins notes. "According to a source who heard him talking about it, Breitbart reporter Matthew Boyle boasted that Trump was paying for the Breitbart staff's rooms at the Ritz-Carlton in Cleveland during the convention. … Boyle … has reportedly also boasted in the past that he could be White House press secretary in a Trump administration." And more Breitbart staffers could be transitioning to Trump's team in the coming days. McKay reports that a "few" Breitbart employees have shown interest in joining the campaign, and "Bannon may bring them with him."

-- BuzzFeed Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith says Bannon's appointment closes the gap between political communications and media activism: "Breitbart is an exemplar, to a far greater degree than even the old partisan journalism, of a pure and focused 'media activism,' in which the technical tools of journalism are turned to clear political ends. If the core value of your media work is the effect it has on politics, then your motives are at the center of everything you report. The opposite and traditional view — which I share— isn't that there's no such thing as bias … It's that reporters' ultimate responsibility is to their readers, not to their side in the partisan wars. That entails publishing whatever information you find, without regard to political consequences." This merger, Smith concludes, may end up being Trump's central legacy.

-- Breitbart said in a statement that Bannon's absence will only be "temporary," and "no interim replacement will be made."

-- There's rampant speculation across the conservative and mainstream media that hiring Bannon is Trump's way of positioning himself to create a new media empire after his expected loss in November. "If Trump loses, Bannon could head up a new media empire with Trump's support and the involvement of new Trump supporter and ousted former Fox News head Roger Ailes. Look for Sean Hannity to be a part of any such endeavor," Ben Shapiro, the conservative write who used to work for Bannon, warns.

-- CNN's Brian Stelter spoke of the same end game: "Think about who he has on his team now," he said Wednesday. "Steve Bannon, Roger Ailes informally, Roger Stone … He has all the right people to put in place a new media company, whether it's a television network or on Facebook or something we can't picture yet. … We have to at least consider that possibility."

Nebraska's Republican senator is there too:

So is the New Yorker's political writer:

-- Former RNC Chairman Michael Steele said the GOP must now realize that it has itself to blame for the destructive rise of Trump. "This has to happen. This confrontation with ourselves," he told Jonathan Capehart for a podcast. "In large measure, we laid down the metrics and pathway for Donald Trump to emerge and to arise the way he did. He understood the GOP better than the GOP understood itself. … This confrontation within the party is something that is long overdue."

-- The Clinton campaign believes the race is about to take "a darker, more divisive turn": Campaign manager Robby Mook slammed Bannon's Breitbart News as an "at times racist, anti-Muslim conspiracy news site." "We absolutely expect, with this change, for Trump and the campaign as a whole to double down on more conspiracy theories, more hateful rhetoric, more wild accusations," he said.

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley in Des Moines (Charlie Neibergall/AP)

THE DAILY HILLARY:

-- A "substantial amount" of material that the FBI delivered to Congress about the Clinton email investigation — including a summary of agents' interview with top aide Huma Abedin — appears to be unclassified, which means it could possibly be released to the public, according to Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley. From Matt Zapotosky: "Grassley is calling for Senate officials to separate the classified from the unclassified documents in order to turn over as much information to the public as possible. Grassley (R-Iowa) said Wednesday that many of the FBI documents appear to be unclassified or are specifically marked as such. He requested that the director of the Office of Senate Security identify and separate the unclassified material so that it might ultimately be released. 'If it isn't classified, it ought to be public,' Grassley said in an interview. It is unclear how soon that might happen. Grassley said it might take a significant amount of time to separate classified from unclassified material."

What's Grassley's play here? It makes sense for Republicans to trickle out unflattering disclosures and leak the best ones for maximum impact, sometime after Labor Day and perhaps on the eve of the first debate. The emails might get overshadowed or lost if they come out too soon, thus it's prudent to ask for this review.

What fodder did Jim Comey give congressional Republicans to use against her? Among the files turned over by the FBI are a 32-page summary of its investigation, interview summaries with Clinton, Abedin and others; as well as copies of classified emails that were recovered from the server. Zapotosky notes that, right now, the materials are only able to be reviewed by members of Congress in a [SCIF] and the FBI issued a statement saying they were being provided with the expectation such material would 'not be disseminated or disclosed without FBI concurrence.'"

Clinton looks at a 3D printer while touring a high school classroom in Cleveland. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

-- Clinton held a series of localized, news-free rallies in Ohio -- content to let Trump's troubles dominate the headlines, John Wagner and Abby Phillip write. "The former secretary of state's schedule has been drawn in a deliberate way to put her in front of strategically chosen constituencies in swing states. But there's been little effort to roll out anything new. Even last week — during what was billed as a big economic speech in Warren, Mich. — Clinton didn't highlight new policies. Instead, she relayed a long list of initiatives put forward earlier in the campaign and used the speech to press the case that Trump's economic plans and actions run counter to his promise to help workers and energize the economy."

"When your opponent is committing suicide, you don't have to commit homicide" is how former Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan described the strategy.

-- The quote from Clinton's Cleveland speech that's getting the most play locally: "Trump says we never win anymore. Well, tell that to the Cavaliers."

-- Democratic women are buzzing about this sad but true piece --> "The Era of 'The Bitch' Is Coming," by Michelle Cottle in The Atlantic: "Get ready for the era of The Bitch. If Clinton wins the White House in November, it will be a historic moment, the smashing of the preeminent glass ceiling in American public life. A Clinton victory also promises to usher in four-to-eight years of the kind of down-and-dirty public misogyny you might expect from a stag party at Roger Ailes's house. You know it's coming. As hyperpartisanship, grievance politics, and garden-variety rage shift from America's first black commander-in-chief onto its first female one, so too will the focus of political bigotry. Some of it will be driven by genuine gender grievance or discomfort among some at being led by a woman. But in plenty of other cases, slamming Hillary as a bitch, a c**t, or a menopausal nut-job … will simply be an easy-peasy shortcut for dismissing her and delegitimizing her presidency. Either way, it'll be best to brace for some in-your-face sexist drivel in the coming years."

Indiana Rep. Todd Young, the GOP candidate for U.S. Senate, holds a media avail on the Affordable Care Act in Fort Wayne. He would have become a senator if Evan Bayh had not jumped in the race last month. Now that's in doubt. (Samuel Hoffman/The Journal-Gazette via AP)

FRESH EVIDENCE OF TICKET SPLITTING:

-- Monmouth puts Trump up 11 points in Indiana (47-36), but Democratic Senate candidate Evan Bayh is up 7 points (48-41) over Rep. Todd Young. In the governor's race, Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb (who became the nominee when Mike Pence became Trump's running-mate is statistically tied with Democrat John Gregg (42-41). From pollster Patrick Murray: Just 33% of Indiana voters have a favorable view of Trump with 54% holding an unfavorable opinion of him. Clinton's ratings are slightly worse at 28% favorable and 62% unfavorable. On the other hand, most voters (54%) approve of the job Pence is currently doing as governor and just 35% disapprove. A majority (58%) also say that agreeing to be Trump's running mate has not affected their opinion of Pence, although 23% say they now think less highly of him and 17% think more highly of him."

-- Quinnipiac released a batch of presidential polling: Clinton +10 in Colorado (49-39), +3 in Iowa (47-44) and +12 in Virginia (50-38).

Sean Spicer in his office at RNC headquarters this week (Photo by Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

-- Style's Ben Terris has a great profile of RNC communications director Sean Spicer, a win-at-any-cost apparatchik who has gone all-in for Trump: For the last three years of George W. Bush's administration, he was the spokesman for the U.S. trade representative – an outspoken booster of free trade. Today he flacks for a guy who wants to withdraw from NAFTA. "He acknowledges the contradiction, but Spicer's tradecraft places a greater value on loyalty than consistency. 'There are doctors who help people who have done bad things, there are lawyers who defend bad people,' he said. 'I don't think it's unique to my profession. … If the charge against me is that I fight to win and I'm intense, then I'm guilty. … Every day I want to put points on the board. That's what I care about more than anything else.'"

Many in the media find him difficult to work with: "One editor of a D.C.-based publication said she's been on the receiving end of so many Spicer tirades that when he calls her at home, her young child will recognize his voice and burst into tears. 'Sean Spicer,' she says, 'is a curse word in our house.'"

The 44-year-old has been at the RNC since 2011: "He has held onto that job longer than any of his predecessors, though not by design. According to a number of his colleagues, Spicer had angled for the job of chief of staff but was passed over for former finance director Katie Walsh after the 2014 midterms. As a consolation the RNC created a new title, 'chief strategist,' for Spicer to add to his résumé."

Spicer is now thinking about how to protect his reputation after November, and many who deal with him believe he's angling for a cable contributor contract: "Last week, a handful of journalists gathered at the RNC headquarters on Capitol Hill for barbecue, beer and an off-the-record briefing from Spicer. Spicer began regaling the journalists with a laundry list of party accomplishments … It sounded to many of the journalists present like he was preparing for a day when Trump might try to blame the RNC for an eventual loss. When guests pressed him on whether the party might ever cut Trump loose, Spicer punted, according to several people present: 'We'll see what the situation is like on October 15th.'"

Pat Toomey campaigns with his son Duncan, 6, at a car show in Pennsylvania on Sunday. He's doing a statewide bus tour. (Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

-- Trump really has hijacked the Republican Party on trade. It's not just Spicer…

Sen. Pat Toomey, who once ran the Club for Growth but now faces a tough reelection fight in Pennsylvania, comes out against the Trans-Pacific Partnership in an op-ed for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "TPP is supposed to give our country the chance to write the rules for global trade, instead of letting China do it. That is a laudable goal, and some of its provisions would open new markets for some of our state's farmers and other industries. However, having the right goal is not good enough. … In the TPP, the Obama administration has not gotten a good enough deal for Pennsylvania workers."

The senator voted for fast-track authority last year and has spoken positively about the negotiations before. It's also a dramatic change in tone from his 2009 book "Road to Prosperity," when Toomey decried "The Siren Song of 'Fair Trade'": "Free international trade is a prerequisite for maximizing economic growth," he wrote then. "Opponents of free trade appeal to Americans' innate sense of fairness when they couch their protectionism with such a reasonable sounding euphemism." Writing on "modest" trade agreements with South Korea and Colombia that had languished in Congress, he said: "By approving these agreements, Congress would go a long way toward stopping the slide to global protectionism that, if unchecked, can only prolong and worsen the recession underway."

Toomey's flip is just the first opportunistic move by a heretofore champion of free trade and open markets. Rob Portman, who was W's U.S. trade representative, came out against TPP in an effort to save his seat in Ohio. And Liz Cheney, in order to win her contested Republican primary in Wyoming, made a calculated decision to oppose the deal. Some of this is because anything that Obama has his fingerprints on is toxic on the right, but most of it has to do with Trump's outspoken embrace of protectionism. At this point, free traders like Toomey clearly see it as safe to come out against TPP because it appears doomed to die during the lame-duck session. Echoing Trump, Liz Cheney even mocks past trade deals — many negotiated during her father's vice presidency — as flawed because of "bad negotiators."

-- Conservative thought leaders are getting increasingly nervous about this trend. They warn that there will be enormous national security repercussions from GOP lawmakers (and Clinton) going wobbly on trade, and they say that America's adversaries are celebrating. At Stanford's Hoover Institution on Monday, retired Admiral Gary Roughead – the former head of Naval operations (2007 to 2011) and commander of the Pacific Fleet – argued passionately that TPP is crucial to bracket a rising China. He said key allies will begin cooperating more closely with Beijing because of the Senate's failure to act. "If we do not pull off TPP, we're going to be playing in a different playing field than we were for the past couple of decades," Roughead warned pessimistically. "It would begin to weaken the strength and the bonds of the alliance relationships."

It's not been a great August recess for Ted Cruz. (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg)

-- Trouble in Texas for Ted Cruz: Weeks after the senator declined to endorse Trump for president, a poll shows the skirmish may have damaged his standing with Republicans in his home state – and could hurt his reelection chances in 2018. Fifty percent of GOP voters said they'd like Cruz to be their Senate candidate again in two years, according to a new survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, while 43 percent said they would prefer someone else. Meanwhile, 52 percent of Lone Star State Republicans now say they prefer Trump over Cruz as their nominee. And Cruz is down by 9 points in a hypothetical primary match-up against Rick Perry, 46 percent to 37 percent.

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

Paul McCartney tweeted this photo after hobnobbing with Hillary in Cleveland:

Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta accused Republicans of leaking information from the FBI files sent to Congress:

-- In perhaps the funniest 30-second clip of the whole campaign, Trump general counsel Michael Cohen went on CNN last night to insist that the shake-up was not actually a shake-up. When host Brianna Keilar noted that Trump is down, Cohen replied: "Says who?" She said Trump is down in the polls. "Says who?" he repeated. "Which polls?" Keilar explained that he is down in "all of them." After an awkward pause, Cohen asked: "What's your question?" Watch here:

Michael Cohen, counsel to Donald Trump on CNN 8.17.16

Social media predictably blew up. "Says who?" has become a meme:

Cohen, who is a longtime close confidante of Trump, tried to recover on Twitter -- only drawing more mockery:

Check out this note sent to Ivanka Trump after she placed a jewelry order online:

What folks on social media were saying about Bannon taking over Trump's campaign:

From the head writer for Glenn Beck:

GOOD READ FROM ELSEWHERE:

A man fishes in the normally bustling port village of Molyvos on the island of Lesbos. (AFP/Louisa Gouliamaki)

-- Residents on the Greek island of Lesbos have spent the last year helping thousands of migrants come ashore. Now, their good deeds are being punished, as tourism – their lifeline industry – plummets. From New York Times' Liz Alderman: "Today the migrants have mostly stopped coming. The coastline, once littered with orange life vests and wrecked boats, has been cleaned to a near-spotless white. But the human drama has left an imprint here … in ways that have only begun to play out. The village is nearly empty of tourists this year … [as] visitors who had long flocked to the crystalline waters of Lesbos go elsewhere, wary of spending their vacations in a place now associated with human desperation. Among the villagers, there is a sense of incomprehension. When the refugee crisis started in earnest, many were thrust into the role of good Samaritans. With endless generosity, they banded together to rescue thousands of Syrians, Afghans and other migrants in peril, months before humanitarian aid groups and European governments arrived to help."

"The whole village is proud of what we did," said Theano Laoumis, who helps run the beachside To Kyma taverna, where refugee dinghies had landed in an unceasing stream. "You didn't know who to save first, there were so many people. But we did save them. It was only natural. That should bring good publicity, not bad."

HOT ON THE LEFT

"French PM supports local bans on burkinis," from The Guardian: "The Socialist prime minister, Manuel Valls, broke his silence on Wednesday to say he understood and supported the handful of seaside town mayors who have banned burkinis, or full-body swimsuits. He said wearing a burkini was "not compatible with the values of the French Republic," but refused to pass a nationwide law banning it. He hinted at the importance of not "playing politics" with such issues, but his support for the mayors was greeted with joy by the right and sparked criticism from some in his Socialist party. 'In the face of provocation, the nation must defend itself,' Valls told La Provence newspaper."

HOT ON THE RIGHT

"Undocumented immigrant accused of carjacking elderly woman, pushing her from moving vehicle," from FOX4KC: "Police have an undocumented immigrant in custody after officers say he carjacked a 91-year-old woman at gunpoint Tuesday and pushed her from her moving vehicle. It happened about 1:30 p.m., at Independence and Hardesty avenues. Police say a friend was driving the elderly woman to a drug store so she could pick up prescription medicine. After police broadcast an alert, other officers spotted the car north of the river. There was a short chase, and the armed man bailed out of the car and tried to run away when police arrested him."

DAYBOOK:

On the campaign trail: Trump is in Charlotte, N.C.; Pence is in Manchester, N.H.

At the White House: Vice President Biden travels to Michigan City, Indiana. There are no public events scheduled.

On Capitol Hill: The Senate and House are out.

QUOTE OF THE DAY:

Trump is not the only one prone to hyperbole. Rudy Giuliani, on Fox News, described the national security speech that Donald gave Monday in Ohio and the law-and-order speech he gave Tuesday in Wisconsin as "the two most substantive, I would say historic, speeches that any presidential candidate has made in a very long time." Then he really jumped the shark: "I think this is the best speech that any Republican, at the least, has ever given." (Aaron Blake made a list of 14 speeches delivered by Republicans that most people would agree were better…)

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

-- Temperatures have FINALLY cooled from the triple-digit, hellish humidity of the past week. The Capital Weather Gang brings a (comparably) refreshing forecast: "Thunderstorms should be long gone by daybreak but clouds linger into the morning. Look for clearing skies by midday and nearly calm winds. Humidity is moderate with seasonable temps. Highs end up in the upper 80s to lower 90s."

-- The Nationals lost to the Rockies, 12-10.

-- Prompted by an elementary school water fountain that was found to contain unsafe lead-water levels, Arlington announced it will test all public schools for contamination before doors open next month. (Moriah Balingit)

-- Metro police charged a 47-year-old Alexandria man with exposing himself to a woman on an Orange Line train for the second time in less than three weeks. (Faiz Siddiqui)

-- Federal officials ended a $6.4 million "Head Start" grant in Prince George's County after discovering that teachers in the early-education program were using corporal punishment and humiliation to discipline children. A review of the program noted one instance where staff forced a three-year-old in wet clothing to mop up his own urine in front of the class, while a teacher texted photos to the child's parents. (Donna St. George and Lynh Bui)

-- Former Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III is getting divorced. He and his wife were college sweethearts at Baylor and got married three years ago. (WUSA)

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

Clinton laughed off Trump's theory that she has health problems (click to watch):

Now re-circulating online -- this clip of Andrew Breitbart saying Trump is not a conservative:

Andrew Breitbart - Trump Is Not A Conservative - 2011

North Korea experienced its highest ranking defection ever:

North Korean diplomat in U.K. defects, highest ranked ever to flee

Watch as this guy tries to survive a full day in Times Square:

Trying To Survive 15 Hours in Times Square

Watch a little boy get rescued from the rubble after an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria (warning: graphic content) and read Sarah Larimer's accompanying story: