Thursday 27 April 2017

Wonkbook: Trump, in new tax plan, promises to do what Reagan couldn't

By Max Ehrenfreund At the center of President Trump's plan ... | Sponsored by Morgan Stanley
 
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National Economic Director Gary Cohn, left, listens as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin speaks at the White House on Wednesday. (Photo by Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

By Max Ehrenfreund

At the center of President Trump's plan to significantly cut taxes on businesses and individuals is a promise to stimulate extraordinary economic growth, so much so, his advisers say, that the plan would pay for itself.

If he succeeds in keeping that promise, Trump will have accomplished something his tax-cutting Republican predecessors were unable to do, say economists and tax policy experts from both parties.

In describing the proposal Wednesday, Trump's top economic advisers said it would unleash new investment and spending by American companies and consumers, supercharging economic growth. That growth, in turn, would prevent the plan from leaving the federal government short trillions of dollars in tax revenue.

But in the experience of two other Republican presidents, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, tax cuts produced an uneven record of prompting economic growth. And in both instances, reductions in taxes were unable to pay for themselves, instead leaving the nation to deal with increasing federal debt.

After his 1981 tax cut, Reagan was forced to raise taxes several times. And Bush's tax cuts put the nation on vulnerable fiscal footing, depriving the government of revenue as the United States waged two wars and faced a financial crisis. Ultimately, Congress and President Barack Obama, after several standoffs over federal finances, increased taxes by billions of dollars and imposed strict limits on government spending.

Economists fear it will happen again. "This is definitely not in pays-for-itself territory," Alan Cole, an economist at the conservative Tax Foundation, said of Trump's plan.

Read the rest on Wonkblog.

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