Friday, 11 November 2016

Wonkbook: Yes, the white working class really did win it for Trump

By Jeff Guo We knew all along that Donald Trump drew his strength from the white working class. We knew this from the patterns in the primaries. We knew this from the nonstop polling conducted over the past 18 months. We knew this from all of the campaign-trail dispatches showing his anti-trade, anti-elite message thrilling …
 
Wonkbook
The latest economic and domestic policy from Wonkblog
 
 

Supporters of President-elect Donald Trump react outside the White House early Wednesday. (Andrew Biraj/Agence France-Presse)

By Jeff Guo

We knew all along that Donald Trump drew his strength from the white working class. We knew this from the patterns in the primaries. We knew this from the nonstop polling conducted over the past 18 months. We knew this from all of the campaign-trail dispatches showing his anti-trade, anti-elite message thrilling crowds in the heartland.

Tuesday proved that this demographic remains a powerful force in U.S. politics — and the president-elect has thoroughly charmed the group. He vastly overperformed 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in the Midwest and the Rust Belt, in many cases flipping counties that had decisively voted for President Obama in 2012.

For instance, Obama won Iowa's Howard County, a farming community that is 97 percent white by 21 points in 2012. On Tuesday, Trump took Howard County, which bills itself as "Iowa's Year 'Round Playground," by 19 points. In Luzerne County, Pa., a place just outside of Scranton, Obama won by five points in 2012; Trump took it by 20 points. In Juneau County, Wis., smack in the middle of the state, residents voted for Obama by a seven point margin in the 2012 election. Voters there picked Trump over his Democratic challenger, Hillary Clinton, by 26 points.

trumpobama

The specks of red — where Trump won counties that previously voted for Obama — dot the Rust Belt. And these counties all had something in common. They were dominated by whites without a bachelor's degree.

In the charts below, I have plotted the correlation. Even within the Midwestern states, it was the counties with higher populations of working-class whites who handed Trump his victory. Many of these areas have been going red for decades — but Trump went above and beyond. He performed significantly better than Romney in places dominated by working-class whites.

rustscatter

ADVERTISEMENT
 

Even after controlling for income levels, employment levels, population size and the foreign-born population in a given county, the more white people there were who lacked a four-year degree, the more likely Trump outperformed Romney in that county. Roughly speaking, if you took an average county and increased the portion of less-educated whites by 10 percentage points, you would boost Trump's winning margin by about three percentage points.

What made these white voters change their minds?

Read the rest on Wonkblog.


Top policy tweets

 
Most Recent Posts from Wonkblog
Why Trump just might be able to solve a nasty problem facing the U.S. economy
"I hate to say that Trump might be the guy that gets us there, but you know, that's the world."
 
Yes, working class whites really did make Trump win. No, it wasn’t simply economic anxiety.
Trump understood the importance that the white working class feel as though it was being heard, and he tapped into deep, slow-moving resentments.
 
Republican women who opposed Trump quietly plan a comeback
 
Dow jumps to record high as hope grows that Trump would lift economy
Economists, investors start factoring in potential for fiscal stimulus
 
 
Marijuana reform went 8 for 9 on the ballot this week. It could be the tipping point.
 
One of Trump’s policies could spark a boom in immigration from Mexico
Trump has promised to reduce immigration, but one of his policies could have the opposite effect.
 
A Trump policy adviser is already walking back tough talk on trade
Why Donald Trump can’t govern like a traditional Republican
His populist message won him the White House, and the GOP would be unwise to expect him to abandon it
ADVERTISEMENT
 
Recommended for you
 
Federal Insider
Federal news and policy update, in your inbox daily.
Sign Up »
 
     
 
©2016 The Washington Post, 1301 K St NW, Washington DC 20071
 
 
 

No comments:

Post a Comment