Friday, 5 May 2017

Fact Checker: Health care is back. Here are facts you need to know about the new GOP plan to replace Obamacare.

Here are facts you need to know about the new GOP plan to replace Obamacare. Health care is back. This week, the House narrowly approved a new version of the Republican plan to overhaul the Affordable Care Act. This time, much of the debate was focused on whether Obamacare's popular prohibition against denying coverage based on …
 
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Here are facts you need to know about the new GOP plan to replace Obamacare.

Health care is back. This week, the House narrowly approved a new version of the Republican plan to overhaul the Affordable Care Act. This time, much of the debate was focused on whether Obamacare's popular prohibition against denying coverage based on preexisting medical conditions will remain in place.

House Speaker Paul Ryan tweeted that the new McArthur amendment to the GOP bill “protects people with pre-existing conditions.” The amendment, crafted by Rep. Tom McArthur (R-N.J.), helped attract more Republican votes to get it passed.

But despite Ryan's tweet, there’s no guarantee that people with preexisting will not face higher costs than under current law. Plus, lawmakers rushed ahead with the new version without an assessment by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, so its impact is especially unclear.

We dug into this in depth this week. Here’s a summary of what we found below. For the full Fact Checker guide on the GOP bill and preexisting conditions, read it here.

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What’s the McArthur amendment, and who’s affected?

The amendment allows states to seek individual waivers from the ACA, which required everyone to purchase insurance (“individual mandate”). The theory is that removing sicker people from the markets and allowing policies with skimpier options would result in lower overall premiums.

That means if the new health law passes, the person who would be affected is someone who 1) lived in a state that sought a waiver, 2) had a lapse in health coverage for longer than two months, 3) had a preexisting condition, and 4) purchased insurance on the individual market (i.e., the health exchanges in Obamacare that currently serve about 18 million Americans).

A person who fell into this category would face insurance rates that could be based on their individual condition, for one year. After that, they would qualify for prices at the community rate, rather than based on their individual illness.

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Someone who got their insurance from an employer – and that's most Americans (155 million) – presumably would not be affected, though the CBO did project that under the initial version of the GOP bill, 7 million fewer people would be covered by employers than under current law by 2026.

(Courtesy of @jimhofmann)

What about people on Medicaid? 

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy claimed that “nobody on Medicaid is going to be taken away” under the House bill. The initial version of the law was anticipated to reduce Medicaid outlays by $880 billion, or 25 percent, over the next 10 years. So we wondered what he was talking about.

McCarthy’s staff explained that he was referring to “current enrollees.” But people cycle in and out of Medicaid all the time, as they lose or change jobs. So very quickly, people currently on Medicaid will have left the system after a new law takes effect. If they try to get back into the system, however, the planned reductions in funding may mean they no longer find themselves eligible for the program — or that their benefits have been scaled back.

We awarded McCarthy Three Pinocchios.

We’re always looking for fact-check suggestions! You can also reach us via email, Twitter (@myhlee@GlennKesslerWP or use#FactCheckThis), or Facebook (Fact Checker or myhlee). Read about our rating scale here, and sign up here for our weekly Fact Checker newsletter. 

Scroll down for this week’s Pinocchio roundup.

— Michelle Ye Hee Lee

 
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