Friday, 18 November 2016

Fact Checker: Paul Ryan says Medicare is going broke because of Obamacare. Nope.

Paul Ryan says Medicare is going broke because of Obamacare. Nope. In a TV interview, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said, "What people don't realize is, because of Obamacare, Medicare is going broke." Our eyebrows went up when we saw this quote; it has been a bipartisan fallacy to claim that the old-age health program Medicare …
 
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Paul Ryan says Medicare is going broke because of Obamacare. Nope.

In a TV interview, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said, "What people don't realize is, because of Obamacare, Medicare is going broke." Our eyebrows went up when we saw this quote; it has been a bipartisan fallacy to claim that the old-age health program Medicare is going “broke.”

First of all, Medicare is not going “broke.” There are four parts to Medicare, which covers 55 million people. When politicians say “broke,” they are only talking about one part of Medicare: Part A, which covers hospital visits, hospice care, nursing facilities and the like. Part A is financed mainly through payroll taxes. Current estimates show the trust fund for Part A will be depleted by 2028, because so many baby boomers are retiring.

But the government could still cover 87 percent of estimated expenses in 2028 and 79 percent in 2040. So, yes, there would be a shortfall in Part A financing, but it doesn't mean Medicare would be bankrupt or “broke.”

It’s strange that Ryan blames Obamacare for Medicare going “broke” (which it’s not). The Affordable Care Act actually strengthened the near-term outlook of the Part A trust fund, by raising additional revenues and cutting expenses. So it’s the opposite of what Ryan says happened. We awarded Four Pinocchios.

(giphy.com)

(giphy.com)

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President-Elect Donald Trump’s first two Pinocchio ratings

This week was the first full week of President-Elect Donald Trump’s transition period. In his first sit-down TV interview as president-elect, Trump was asked, “What about the pledge to deport millions and millions of undocumented immigrants?" Trump answered that he will prioritize “probably 2 million, it could be even 3 million,” people who are criminals and in the country illegally.

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The data Trump is using are of 1.9 million noncitizens who are convicted of crimes and are subject to removal, including undocumented immigrants, people with temporary visas and lawful permanent residents. It’s unclear exactly how many out of the 1.9 million are here illegally. The most credible estimate, by an independent think tank, is that more than half of the 1.9 million are lawfully in the country. We awarded Trump Three Pinocchios.

We also gave Trump a Flip-Flop Pinocchio for changing his stance on the electoral college. In 2012, when it appeared that Mitt Romney might win the popular vote but lose the electoral college, Trump tweeted several times in outrage. Some examples:

"He [Obama] lost the popular vote by a lot and won the election. We should have a revolution in this country!"

"The phoney [sic] electoral college made a laughing stock out of our nation. The loser one!" 

Then, after his presidential win, Trump changed his mind. He lost the popular vote–by more than a million votes at last count–but won the electoral college. Suddenly, he found the electoral college isn’t so bad after all:

“The Electoral College is actually genius in that it brings all states, including the smaller ones, into play. Campaigning is much different!

***

We’re always looking for fact-check suggestions! Fill out this form, e-mail us, tweet us directly @myhlee and @GlennKesslerWP, or use #FactCheckThis. Read about our rating scale here, and sign up here for our weekly Fact Checker newsletter. 

Scroll down for this week’s Pinocchio roundup.

— Michelle Ye Hee Lee

 
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