Friday 29 July 2016

Fact Checker: 45 claims. Four days. Fact-checking the Democratic National Convention

45 claims. Four days. Fact-checking the 2016 Democratic National Convention Welcome to the 2016 general election. Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine officially became the Democratic presidential and vice presidential nominee this week, kicking off the 102-day dash to Election Day. Last week, we brought you the highlights from the Republican National Convention. We fact-checked 45 claims …
 
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45 claims. Four days. Fact-checking the 2016 Democratic National Convention

Welcome to the 2016 general election.

Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine officially became the Democratic presidential and vice presidential nominee this week, kicking off the 102-day dash to Election Day.

Last week, we brought you the highlights from the Republican National Convention. We fact-checked 45 claims over four days this week, and have included many of them below. Compared to Trump’s statistics-laden version that was like catnip for fact-checking, Clinton’s acceptance speech was largely based on her opinions, and sparse in terms of facts and figures.

Read the rest of our round-ups here: Day 1 (Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and more) // Day 2 (Bill Clinton, Barbara Boxer, Cecile Richards and more) // Day 3 (President Obama, Tim Kaine and more) // Day 4 (mostly Hillary Clinton)

 

"More than 90 percent of the gains have gone to the top 1 percent, that's where the money is."

–Hillary Clinton

Clinton repeats an old Bernie Sanders line, but the numbers are out of date. Clinton is claiming that the top 1 percent of Americans is earning 90 percent of the gains in income but there is increasing evidence that income imbalance has improved in recent years as the economy has improved since the Great Recession.

The 90 percent figure stems from research by Emmanuel Saez of the University of California at Berkeley, based on data between 2009 and 2012.  Saez in June 2015 updated that study with figures dating to 2014. The new numbers showed that the top 1 percent captured 58 percent of total real income growth between 2009 and 2014.

In June 2016, Saez updated his figures again to include data for 2015, and it showed yet again that share going to the top 1 percent had dropped; it is now 52 percent for the period between 2009 and 2015.

Saez's calculations now show that the share earned by the top 1 percent has fallen with each year since the Great Recession. "The recovery now looks somewhat more even," Saez said.

"Bernie Sanders and I will work together to make college tuition-free for the middle class and debt-free for all."

–Clinton

Clinton embraced elements of Sanders's college funding plan, including free tuition at all community colleges. "Middle class" covers a range from about $42,000 to $125,000, and the plan proposes free tuition in phases for families within that range, for students attending in-state four-year schools. But some families will have to wait longer than others.

She proposes immediate free tuition for students from families making $85,000 or less, to attend in-state four-year schools. Free tuition at such schools will not be available for families making between $85,000 and $125,000 until 2021.

Her plan also demands state financial participation. But experts raised concerns that some states would decline to participate, and what that would mean for tuition relief, the New York Times reported.

"Independent analysts … found Trump's tax plan given to the wealthy and big corporations would rack up $30 trillion in debt."
—Tim Kaine

Kaine, a member of the Senate Budget Committee, based this figure on a December report from the well-respected and nonpartisan Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center. But he is citing a 20-year budget figure, which is an uncommonly long length of time to evaluate the impact of policy decisions. (Generally, analysts cite 10 years — and for decades Congress used five-year budget plans.)

A longer budget window greatly increases the numbers. The report shows, for instance, that the tax revenue loss would remain relatively consistent over either a 10-year or 20-year period — about 4 percent of GDP. But added years increase the number (as well as the additional interest that must be paid on the national debt).

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The Tax Policy Center thus concluded that Trump's policies would increase the debt by $34 trillion over 20 years – and $11 trillion over 10 years. Kaine chose the higher number but failed to explain he was using a very lengthy budget window.

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We "cut veterans homelessness almost in half."
—President Obama

Obama is exaggerating the success of his homeless veteran initiative here. Department of Housing and Urban Development data show overall homelessness among veterans decreased by 35 percent from 2009 to 2015.

He likely is referring to the decrease in homeless veterans who are "unsheltered," defined as "places not meant for human habitation, such as the streets, abandoned buildings, vehicles, or parks." The unsheltered homeless veteran population decreased by 45.9 percent from 2009 to 2015.

The unsheltered count is important. But this figure does not encompass the thousands of other homeless veterans living in temporary housing programs, emergency shelters or safe havens. The overall homeless count is a combination of a "point in time" count (which is a snapshot of the number of people sleeping on the street or in a shelter on a given night) and a one-year estimate of sheltered homeless people. The latest data from the latter measure is from 2014, showing a 12 percent decrease from 2009.

It's also important to look at the overall population because the administration has placed a focus on getting chronically homeless men and women, including veterans, placed into permanent housing and supported with mental health and substance abuse services that can keep them housed. This is the population that is most likely to end up back on the streets and in the "unsheltered" count.

She compiled a really solid record, totally progressive on economic and social issues. She voted for and against some proposed trade deals."

— Bill Clinton

Bill Clinton suggests that Hillary Clinton was somewhat split on trade deals — she was "totally progressive" — but her overall record as senator was to broadly support such agreements. As a senator, Clinton had a chance to vote on 10 trade deals, and she voted for or supported all but two: the Trade Act of 2002, essentially a trade deal involving Colombia, Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru, and the 2005 Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement. Moreover, as secretary of state, she also championed the negotiations that led to the Trans-Pacific Partnership; only as a presidential candidate, when challenged by Sen. Bernie Sanders, she suddenly said she opposed the final negotiated text.

Of course, Bill Clinton as president was a supporter of two trade actions that Donald Trump and liberal Democrats have heavily criticized: the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the decision to grant China permanent normal trade relations, which led to a flood of Chinese imports.

Help us find ads, statements, speeches, quotes and figures that don’t quite pass muster. Send your fact-check suggestions: fill out this form, e-mail us or tweet us at @myhlee@GlennKesslerWP or using #FactCheckThis. Read about our rating scale here, and sign up here for our weekly Fact Checker newsletter. 

Scroll down for this week’s Pinocchio round-up.

–Michelle Ye Hee Lee

 
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Here's our roundup of claims made on the opening night of the Democratic National Convention.
 
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Here's our roundup of claims made on the second day of the Democratic National Convention.
 
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