Wednesday, 21 September 2016

Wonkbook: The Federal Reserve confronts a possibility it never expected

By Ylan Q. Mui Two years ago, top officials at the Federal Reserve mapped out a strategy for withdrawing the central bank's unprecedented support for the American economy. The official communiqué was titled "Policy Normalization Principles and Plans," and it was supposed to serve as a rough outline for the tenure of newly installed Fed …
 
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The Federal Reserve building in Washington September 1,  2015.  Central bankers from around the world are telling their American counterparts that they are ready for a U.S. interest rate hike and would prefer that the Federal Reserve make the move without further ado.  REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

The Federal Reserve building in Washington (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)

By Ylan Q. Mui

Two years ago, top officials at the Federal Reserve mapped out a strategy for withdrawing the central bank's unprecedented support for the American economy.

The official communiqué was titled "Policy Normalization Principles and Plans," and it was supposed to serve as a rough outline for the tenure of newly installed Fed Chair Janet L. Yellen. Essentially, it consisted of two basic parts: Raise interest rates, and shrink the central bank's massive balance sheet.

But now, both of those steps are being called into question as Fed officials grapple with an economy that appears to be stuck in first gear. Instead of executing its exit strategy, the Fed is confronting the possibility that the dramatic measures it took to safeguard the recovery will remain in place indefinitely.

"Maybe this is one of those cases where you can't go home again," former Fed chairman Ben S. Bernanke wrote in a recent blog post arguing for a shift in course.

The central bank has made no official changes to its strategy, which was adopted with a nearly unanimous vote. But just getting started clearly has been a challenge.

Read the rest on Wonkblog.


 

Chart of the day

Painkillers are now more commonly used than tobacco. Christopher Ingraham has more.

painkillers-01


Top policy tweets

"'the root of the epidemic: insufficient access to drug abuse treatment.' hmm. https://t.co/ZU18mWGn9S" -- @interfluidity

"Agree with @LHSummers on downsides to raising interest rates right now. An overshoot of 2% inflation is hardly the biggest concern today." -- @krogoff

"I will be covering the Fed decision / presser today, which makes me a member-for-a-day of Fed Supernerd Twitter, which still > JOLTS twitter" -- @jimtankersley

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