Special edition! Fact-checking the first Clinton-Trump presidential debate In the first debate between presidential contenders Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, Trump repeatedly relied on troublesome and false facts that have been debunked throughout the campaign. Clinton stretched the truth on occasion, such as when she tried to wiggle out of her 2012 praise of the Trans Pacific Partnership as a "gold standard." But her misstatements paled in comparison to the list of Trump exaggerations and falsehoods. Trump once again asserted that the 2008 Clinton campaign was responsible for spreading the myth that President Obama was born in Kenya, when that is false. He claimed that "thousands" of American jobs will leave the country when Ford shifts small-car manufacturing to Mexico, but no one here will lose their jobs. He also falsely claimed that he was against the Iraq war, when all available evidence demonstrates that he supported it until the rest of the country began to turn against it in 2004. He also once again falsely said he started his business with a "small loan" from his father. Here's a roundup of 23 of the most noteworthy claims. As is our practice, we do not award Pinocchios when we do a roundup of facts in debates. "So Ford is leaving. You see that, their small car division leaving. Thousands of jobs leaving Michigan, leaving Ohio. They're all leaving. And we can't allow it to happen anymore." –Trump Ford is moving its small car production to Mexico, but the expansion will not affect U.S. workers. The company has said that while production of Ford Focus models will shift to Mexico, its plant in Michigan will build other, larger vehicles. Ford and many other automakers are finding Mexico more attractive for several reasons. "The cost of labor is indeed greater in the United States, which makes producing labor-intensive small cars in Mexico more profitable. The United States also has advantages, though — inexpensive electricity, experienced technicians and access to sophisticated materials and equipment — often means building larger and more expensive cars is cheaper in this country," our colleague Max Ehrenfreund wrote. "The only years that anybody's ever seen were a couple of years when he had to turn them over to state authorities when he was trying to get a casino license, and they showed he didn't pay any federal income tax." –Clinton Clinton exaggerates here. We know of three years in the 1970s when he did pay federal income taxes. But there were at least five years in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s when Trump did not pay any, or nearly any, income taxes. "Under my plan I will be reducing taxes tremendously." –Trump Trump's tax plan would raise federal income taxes on more than half of America's single parents and one-fifth of families with children, according to an analysis by Lily Batchelder, a New York University expert on tax policy who formerly worked for Obama's National Economic Council. While the Trump campaign called it "pure fiction," the right-leaning Tax Foundation has said the group was able to replicate her findings. Kyle Pomerleau, director of federal projects at the Tax Foundation, posted on Twitter that Batchelder's results "seem reasonable to me." "Independent experts have looked at what I've proposed, what Donald has proposed. And basically they've said this. … [Under Trump's tax plan] we would lose 3.5 million jobs and maybe have another recession. My plans — and they've said 'OK, we can do this,' and I intend to get it done — we will have 10 million more jobs because we will be making investments where we can grow the economy." –Clinton Mark Zandi, a well-respected economist, did issue a report saying that if Trump's economic plans were fully implemented, 3.5 million jobs would disappear, incomes would stagnate, debt would explode, and stock prices would plummet. But the report also said it was highly unlikely that Trump would get many of his plans approved by Congress, even if it is controlled by Republicans, because so many of his positions are so a departure from Republican principles. Even so, the report said the U.S. economy would likely suffer under a Trump presidency. His report also said that if Clinton were able to fully implement her economic plans, the economy would add an additional 3.2 million jobs during the first four years of her presidency. Combined with anticipated job creation under current law, that adds up to 10.4 million jobs. But the report also said that Clinton would face significant roadblocks to getting her economic plan through Congress, resulting in far fewer job gains. "I don't mind releasing. I'm under a routine audit, and it'll be released." –Trump Trump cites an Internal Revenue Service audit as his justification for not releasing his federal income tax returns, but the audit does not prohibit from releasing the returns. Richard Nixon, who started the tradition of presidents and presidential candidates releasing their returns, did so in the middle of an audit. Moreover, Trump has not released his tax returns from before 2009, which are no longer under audit, according to his attorney. Presidential candidates have no legal obligation to release their returns, but there has long been a tradition to do so for the sake of transparency. Hillary Clinton has released three decades' worth of tax returns. While Trump has not released the returns, his long history of litigation has given the public a sense of what is in his returns. Tax information made public so far show Trump did not pay any, or nearly any, income taxes at least five times in the past 40 years. "As far as tax return, you don't learn that much" from tax returns. –Trump Trump is being misleading. Tax experts say that tax returns provide insight about a person's finances in several key areas. First, the tax return reveals a person's annual income. A person's net worth is not disclosed, but voters would gain an understanding of a person's cash flow. Second, voters would understand the sources of a person's income, such as how much comes from certain businesses, speeches, dividends, capital gains and so forth. Third, a tax return would disclose how much a person gives to charity. Mitt Romney gave almost $2.3 million to charity in 2011, while Bill and Hillary Clinton gave $3 million to charity in 2014. We know these figures because of information in their tax returns. Trump claims he has given $102 million to charity in the past five years, but a Washington Post investigation found not a cent in actual cash — mostly just free rounds of golf, given away by his courses for charity auctions and raffles. Trump's tax return would clear up exactly how much he has really given to charity — indeed, whether he has given anything at all. Fourth, a tax return would reveal how aggressive Trump has been on his taxes. There is no black-and-white approach to taxes; there are many gray areas subject to interpretation, especially regarding deductions. Trump frequently suggests that he knows how to game the system, so voters would learn whether he takes the same approach to his taxes. Finally, the tax returns would disclose what percentage of Trump's income actually goes to taxes. Trump: "You called it the gold standard of trade deals. You said it's the finest deal you've ever seen." Clinton: "No." Trump: "And then you heard what I said about it, and all of a sudden you were against it." Clinton: "Well, Donald, I know you live in your own reality, but that is not the facts. The facts are — I did say I hoped it would be a good deal, but when it was negotiated." Trump is right. Clinton is subtly adjusting her words here when confronted with a question about her consistency on policy positions. But the fact is she never used the word "hoped." Instead, she was more declarative, using the phrase "gold standard" when she was Secretary of State. "This TPP sets the gold standard in trade agreements to open free, transparent, fair trade, the kind of environment that has the rule of law and a level playing field," she said in Australia in 2012. "And when negotiated, this agreement will cover 40 percent of the world's total trade and build in strong protections for workers and the environment." "You've taken business bankruptcies six times." –Clinton "On occasion – four times – we used certain laws that are there." –Trump Clinton is correct. Trump's companies have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, which means a company can remain in business while wiping away many of its debts. The bankruptcy court ultimately approves a corporate budget and a plan to repay remaining debts; often shareholders lose much of their equity. Trump's Taj Mahal opened in April 1990 in Atlantic City, but six months later, "defaulted on interest payments to bondholders as his finances went into a tailspin," The Washington Post's Robert O'Harrow found. In July 1991, Trump's Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy. He could not keep up with debts on two other Atlantic City casinos, and those two properties declared bankruptcy in 1992. A fourth property, the Plaza Hotel in New York, declared bankruptcy in 1992 after amassing debt. PolitiFact uncovered two more bankruptcies filed after 1992, totaling six. Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts filed for bankruptcy again in 2004, after accruing about $1.8 billion in debt. Trump Entertainment Resorts also declared bankruptcy in 2009, after being hit hard during the 2008 recession. Why the discrepancy? Perhaps this will give us an idea: Trump told Washington Post reporters that he counted the first three bankruptcies as just one. "In Chicago, they've had thousands of shootings. … Stop and frisk worked very well … it brought the crime way down [in New York City]." –Trump Trump cherry-picks the increase in violence in Chicago, but this is not indicative of overall crime rates, which have been declining for years. Moreover, while Trump says stop-and-frisk policies should be enacted in Chicago as it was implemented in New York City, those policies have not been correlated with crime. While violent crime overall has been declining for about two decades, there was a sharp increase in the violent crime rate in 2015. Homicides have continued to spike in major cities this year, though the rates remain far below their peak in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Law enforcement officials, including the FBI, have voiced concerns about the uptick in crime in 2015. Criminal justice experts warn against comparing crime trends from short periods of time, such as month over month or year over year. An annual trend can show a trajectory of where the trend might be headed, but still does not give a full picture. Many criminal justice experts say crime trends are determined over at least five years, preferably 10 or 20 years, of data. Trump praises stop-and-frisk policies under former New York City mayor Rudolph Guliani. But it's debatable whether the stop-and-frisk policies had such a direct impact on crime, as Trump suggests. Crime is affected by many factors, and New York's decline in crime mirrored the decline in many other major cities at the time. Moreover, crime was declining for four years before Giuliani took office, and it continued to decline for 14 years after he left. We awarded Three Pinocchios to Trump's claim attributing stop-and-frisk policies to the decline in crime. Trump also claimed that "murders are up" in New York. That is incorrect. Homicides in New York are down so far this year from the same point last year, according to the New York Police Department. But homicides did see an uptick in New York City in 2015, similar to trends in numerous other cities. "If you're too dangerous to fly, you are too dangerous to buy a gun." –Clinton Democrats, including Clinton, frequently point out that people on the terrorist watch list can purchase a gun. But the proposal that Democrats have made in Congress wouldn't ban such purchases automatically. We have awarded Two Pinocchios to this claim for lack of context. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) has introduced legislation to give authority to the attorney general to decide whether or not a suspected terrorist could buy a gun. Anyone who was subjected to a federal terrorism investigation within five years of the attempted gun purchase would be flagged in the background-check system, and the Justice Department would be able to review those cases. The government uses a "reasonable suspicion" standard to nominate and include someone in the Terrorist Watchlist, which includes the "no-fly list." Belonging to a terrorist organization, or being listed on one of the watch lists, does not automatically stop someone from buying a gun. There has to be another factor that disqualifies the person from buying a gun under federal or state law, such as a felony conviction or illegal immigration status. "He actually advocated for the actions we took in Libya and urged that Gaddafi be taken out, after actually doing some business with him one time." –Clinton Clinton is right that Trump emphatically urged the United States to remove Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi from power. Here's Trump, in February 2011, urging an intervention on his video blog. "I can't believe what our country is doing," Trump said. "Qaddafi in Libya is killing thousands of people, nobody knows how bad it is, and we're sitting around we have soldiers all have the Middle East, and we're not bringing them in to stop this horrible carnage and that's what it is: It's a carnage." Trump added: "Now we should go in, we should stop this guy, which would be very easy and very quick. We could do it surgically, stop him from doing it, and save these lives. This is absolutely nuts. We don't want to get involved and you're gonna end up with something like you've never seen before…We have go in to save these lives; these people are being slaughtered like animals. It's horrible what's going on; it has to be stopped. We should do on a humanitarian basis, immediately go into Libya, knock this guy out very quickly, very surgically, very effectively, and save the lives." "I did not support the war in Iraq." –Trump This is just totally false. We have found no evidence of his early opposition to the invasion. Trump expressed lukewarm support the first time he was asked about it on Sept. 11, 2002, and was not clearly against it until he was quoted in the August 2004 Esquire cover story titled "Donald Trump: How I'd Run the Country (Better)." |
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