News Reporter: The Daily 202: Why it is so difficult for Democrats to win the House

Why it is so difficult for Democrats to win the House

Donald Trump reacts Friday as reporters yell questions after he declared that he now believes Barack Obama was born in the United States. (Mike Segar/Reuters)

With Breanne Deppisch

THE BIG IDEA: Donald Trump's persistent unpopularity in suburban areas has allowed House Democrats to expand the map of competitive races. Their problem now is that the Republican-held congressional districts which Trump makes it easiest to pick off are in the most expensive media markets to air television commercials.

It is a frustrating paradox for Democratic strategists, requiring difficult and constant tradeoffs. Like gerrymandering, it is also a major reason why few insiders believe the party will ultimately win the 30 seats necessary to seize the majority.

"The expense of the media markets in the suburban districts is a very real dynamic for the House races," said Kelly Ward, the executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in an interview. "They're all expensive. … It's harder to then carry a message and drive a narrative. It's so much more money. … It's the burden of my budget."

Unlike the GOP presidential nominee, who can count on unlimited free media attention, House candidates are for the most part unknown and must spend heavily to both introduce themselves to voters and tie the incumbent to Trump.

Democrats will gain seats in November; the question is how many. Only about 50 of the 435 districts are considered even remotely competitive. Most handicappers think Democrats will gain more than a dozen, and that their upside depends on whether or not the bottom falls out from underneath Trump.

-- Thanks in part to Nancy Pelosi's fundraising prowess, the DCCC continues to outraise the National Republican Congressional Committee. The committee raised $11 million in August, compared to the NRCC's $6.7 million. In July, the DCCC outraised the NRCC by almost $7.5 million. All told, the DCCC will announce today that it has $63.2 million cash on hand. That's significantly more than the committee had at this point two and four years ago.

Barack Obama meets with Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi in the Oval Office last week. (Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images)

-- But no matter their party, it is always difficult for individual challengers to outraise incumbents, who lobbyists want an audience with and who can do more favors for major donors. Individual candidates also get a discounted advertising rate from TV stations, so they do not need to pay as much as outside groups. Even though outside groups supporting House Republicans will spend more money, that dynamic nonetheless works to the GOP's advantage because they have more incumbents with tough reelection contests.

-- Money really matters: The dozen or so media markets where the fight for the majority is playing out are really, really expensive…

In a Northern Virginia suburban district that Trump is certain to lose badly, for example, freshman GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock has kept her distance from the nominee. But to take her down, Democrats must advertise heavily in the expensive D.C. market. The estimated cost for 1,000 gross ratings points (GRP) – the recommended level for message saturation – is $1.2 million per week, according to an ad buyer.

In New Jersey's Fifth District, GOP Rep. Scott Garrett is very vulnerable. But 44 percent of his district in the New York City television market, and the other 56 percent is in Philadelphia's.

A candidate must spend $2.6 million per week for message saturation in the Big Apple, which means that slow-burning cable is the only reasonable TV option. Democrats are running up against this obstacle as they advertise against Lee Zeldin in NY-1 and Dan Donovan in NY-11. (Reps. Patrick Meehan and Ryan Costello are in the Philly market.)

Darrell Issa could have a race, but it might cost too much for Democrats to defeat him. (Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call)

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) looks vulnerable on paper – with a suburban district that also has a sizable number of Latinos – but conventional wisdom says he will ultimately survive because of how costly it is to run a credible campaign against him. Four-fifths of his constituents live in the San Diego market, which costs $388,000 per week for message saturation. The other fifth is in the Los Angeles market, where a candidate needs to pay $3.2 million per GRP. Issa also happens to be the richest member of Congress, and he can afford to spend as much as it takes to define and destroy his challenger.

Minnesota's Third District, where Democrat Terri Bonoff is trying to topple Rep. Erik Paulsen, covers the suburbs west of the Twin Cities. It costs $375,000 per GRP for candidates and $525,000 for outside groups.

Here are some other major media markets with battleground House districts (with the name of the Republican incumbent and how much a media buyer for an outside group said it currently costs to reserve 1000 GRPs):

Miami (FL-26 – Carlos Curbelo): $1.3 million
Boston/Manchester (NH-01 – Frank Guinta): $1.2 million
Chicago (IL-10 – Bob Dold): $1.1 million
Tampa (FL-13 – David Jolly): $1.02 million
Orlando (FL-07 – John Mica): $975,000
Denver (CO-6 – Mike Coffman/CO-03 – Scott Tipton): $875,000
Sacramento (CA-10 – Jeff Denham): $750,000
Las Vegas (NV-04 – Cresent Hardy): $600,000

-- Several Republicans who Democrats would love to target represent places where it is not feasible to go on the air when there are more winnable districts. Sixty percent of Michigan's Eighth, represented by Mike Bishop, is in the Detroit market, for example, and almost all of Dave Reichert's district is in the Seattle market.

-- If a wave materializes, it matters less who the incumbent is and more whether they have an R or a D after their name on the ballot. Recent consolidation of the Republican base, which has led to the tightening of the presidential polls, makes it harder for a wave to break late – though, by no means, is it out of the question. The first debate, one week from today, could be a turning point. But because of the way the maps are drawn, even on a huge night for Democrats, it would be very hard to get to 30 seats.

Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.) built a reputation as a military expert and social conservative during 34 years representing western and central Missouri in the House. He lost in a 2010 upset. (Harry Hamburg/AP File)

-- Why this is not 2010: Ward, who now runs the DCCC, was working on incumbent retention for the committee six years ago when Democrats lost 63 seats. In the aftermath of the Citizens United decision, Republicans got a jump on raising outside money. And many of the most vulnerable Democrats represented districts in particularly inexpensive media markets. "For a million dollars they could launch a major attack against someone like John Spratt in South Carolina, or Ike Skelton in Missouri, or John Barrow in Georgia, because the markets were just cheap, because rural markets are cheaper," Ward recalls.

Ward likes to say that, if she had an unlimited budget, she is certain that she could beat someone like Issa. But right now she has to pick and choose. The DCCC has pressed its ad makers to be more creative so that its commercials break through. In places where it is too expensive to run television, the committee invests extra money in digital efforts, direct mail, field programs and door-to-door voter contact.

House Majority PAC, the main Democratic outside group, placed its first round of advertising reservations back in March. Strategists picked markets that they knew would also draw presidential spending and believe they'll save millions of dollars by booking early when rates were cheaper. "It's never been our goal to match the other side dollar for dollar, but we work to make sure Democratic spending is competitive in key races and particularly that our spending is as efficient and effective as possible," said Jeb Fain, the group's communications director. "A big part of that is reserving airtime early, so our dollars go further."

Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy flank Mike Pence during a press conference last week. (Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

-- To be sure: Democrats argue that the expensive media markets also make it harder for GOP incumbents to insulate themselves from Trump. Many people do not know much about their member of Congress, and split-ticket voting generally has been on the decline. If incumbents are not running ads to differentiate themselves from Trump, and he's losing their district badly, they are more likely to be caught up in a wave. "There is a conversation happening in the Las Vegas media market right now, and it is helpful for us," Ward said. "The conversation in New Hampshire is helpful for (Democrat) Carol Shea-Porter. That larger ecosystem of those expensive markets, I think will help us tell the story we need to tell."

Welcome to the Daily 202, PowerPost's morning newsletter.
With contributions from Elise Viebeck (@eliseviebeck).

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:

Device explodes during bomb squad operation

-- The New York Police Department announced that it is seeking 28-year-old Ahmad Khan Rahami in connection with Saturday's bombing in Manhattan, though the man's role in the incident remains unclear. From Matt Zapotosky, Philip Bump, Amy B. Wang and Mark Berman: "Rahami is a U.S. citizen of Afghan descent born in Afghanistan, according to the FBI. His last known address was in New Jersey. Law enforcement officials said they were investigating whether Rahami could have been influenced by international militant groups or the ongoing conflict in his homeland."

The NYPD released Rahami's name after authorities took "a number of people" into custody in connection with the bombing, and their counterparts in New Jersey worked to render safe "multiple improvised explosive devices" discovered at a train station in Elizabeth just across from Staten Island.

FBI agents also launched what they termed an "operation" at an address on Elmora Street in Elizabeth. Court records show members of the Rahami family live and work at the address.

Police and firefighters work Saturday night at the scene of an explosion in Manhattan's Chelsea neighborhood. (AP/Andres Kudacki)

-- Police were already investigating three weekend incidents — explosions in New York and New Jersey and a stabbing attack in Minnesota — that took place within a 12-hour period on Saturday. Officials said they could identify no definitive links between the disturbances — the discovery of the devices in Elizabeth, the bombing that injured 29 in Chelsea, an explosion along the route of a scheduled race in Seaside Park, N.J., and a stabbing that wounded nine in a St. Cloud, Minn., mall. ... A news agency linked to the Islamic State claimed Sunday that the suspect in Minnesota, who was fatally shot by an off-duty police officer, was 'a soldier' of the militant group, though there was no confirmation of what connection the man may have had. (Follow the updating story here.)

Jimmy Kimmel hosts the Emmy Awards in L.A. (Kevin Winter/Getty)

-- Jimmy Kimmel hosted the 68th Emmy Awards last night, announcing a fairly routine lineup of winners while lobbing some jokes about Trump and Bill Cosby. Highlights from Emily Yahr, Stephanie Merry, Elahe Izadi and Bethonie Butler:

"Veep" won its second comedy award -- while Julia Louis-Dreyfus swept her fifth consecutive Emmy for outstanding lead actress in a comedy.
FX's critically-acclaimed "The People v. O.J. Simpson" miniseries dominated the awards, winning five trophies including limited series, along with acting wins for Sarah Paulson, Sterling K. Brown and Courtney B. Vance."
HBO's "Game of Thrones," which scored up the best drama trophy for the second year in a row.

Arian Foster #29, Kenny Stills #10 and Michael Thomas #31 of the Miami Dolphins kneel during the national anthem before yesterday's game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. (Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

GET SMART FAST:

The president of Miami's police union called on officers to stop escorting Dolphins athletes to football games so long as players continue kneeling during the National Anthem. (Miami Herald)
Scott Walker is playing the role of Tim Kaine in Mike Pence's debate prep, and D.C. lawyer Bob Barnett is playing Pence for Kaine.
A West Philadelphia gunman who fired 18 shots at a police officer before going on a deadly rampage throughout the city was carrying a note describing his hatred of law enforcement. (Cleve R. Wootson Jr.)
Homicides have spiked again in the U.S. this year, but the city of Chicago alone is responsible for half the increase. A new report undercuts suggestions of a "nationwide crime wave," blaming a few individual cities instead. (Mark Berman)
The Justice Department is investigating potential religious discrimination after a local government blocked construction on a rural Virginia mosque. More than a third of Justice Department investigations into land or institutional religious discrimination since 2010 have involved Muslims – a striking number given that Muslims make up about 1 percent of the U.S. population. (Rachel Weiner)
The Syrian ceasefire agreement showed more signs of crumbling just one week after being enacted, with U.S. and Russia squabbling as humanitarian aid remains stalled on the Turkish border. The civil war is expected to be a major topic at the U.N. today, and discussions between the main players may yet salvage the situation. (Paul Schemm, Erin Cunningham and Liz Sly)
Meanwhile, relations between Washington and Moscow continue to fray after the U.S. admitted to mistakenly striking Syrian military positions. Defense Department officials said the strike was meant to target Islamic State forces in the area, but the intelligence failure – which came at a particularly sensitive time – set off the most hostile diplomatic exchanges between Washington and Moscow in recent years. (Karen DeYoung and Thomas Gibbons-Neff)
Three dozen Senate Republicans are pressing the Obama administration to toughen its stance toward Russia over its recent airstrikes against opposition forces in Syria, which the lawmakers say violated the nuclear deal with Tehran. "Russia has played a very weak hand extremely well, and I think President Obama has played a very strong hand very poorly," said Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), who spearheaded the effort. (Karoun Demirjian and Carol Morello)
Vladimir Putin's political allies won a landslide victory in Russia's parliamentary elections, netting 80 percent of the 450 seats that were up for grabs yesterday. The results pave the way for Putin to seek a fourth term in 2017. (Reuters)
Angela Merkel's ruling party was dealt another blow in state elections, as the nationalist anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany party garnered 14 percent of the vote. The result makes likely a three-way governing coalition of Social Democrats, the Green Party and the Left Party seems likely in the Berlin state legislature. (AP)
India's army suffered its worst loss in more than a decade, as militants killed 17 soldiers in an attack on a brigade headquarters in Kashmir. (Rama Lakshmi)
Sudan's government threatened to close its recently-opened border with South Sudan "within days" if its neighbor does not expel militant groups. The border opened in January for the first time since 2011. (Reuters)
The U.S. agreed to pay $3 million to the family of an Italian aid worker who was killed in a CIA drone strike in Pakistan last year, ending an 18-month negotiation process after the White House pledged compensation for two families. The administration has yet to reach a settlement with relatives of American aid worker Warren Weinstein. (Greg Miller and Greg Jaffe)

HRC addresses the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute's gala on Saturday. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

THE DAILY HILLARY:

-- "Among Democrats, deep concern about Clinton's Hispanic strategy," by Abby Phillip and Ed O'Keefe: "While Clinton holds a significant lead in every poll of Hispanic voters, less clear is whether these voters will turn out in numbers that Democrats are counting on to win. Despite a uniquely favorable environment with Trump's repeated attacks on undocumented immigrants, Democrats are increasingly worried that the opportunity is slipping away to meet a longstanding party goal of marshaling the nation's growing Hispanic population into a permanent electoral force."

One top criticism is that Clinton waited until this month to launch a sustained campaign of traditional, Spanish-language ads in key markets.
Also of concern is the lack of messaging on bread-and-butter topics beyond immigration such as the economy, education and health care — issues that are important to most voters, including Hispanics. In contrast to Clinton, Obama's first Spanish-language ads in 2012 were focused on health care and education.
Until recently, Clinton's television advertising to Hispanic voters has been in English. Some say this is insulting to Spanish speakers.

Latino leaders are also peeved about the lack of outreach in down-ballot House and Senate races: "Neither the DSCC nor the DCCC employ Hispanic outreach coordinators, according to Albert Morales, who held that job until March for the Democratic National Committee. 'The DSCC has never really had a robust or a Hispanic engagement effort that I ever coordinated with, and that's saying a lot being at the DNC under three different chairmen,' Morales said. 'I couldn't name one. If you were to ask me, name a Hispanic staffer who's been at the DSCC, I couldn't name it. That's pretty sad.'"

-- After our story posted, the Clinton campaign released an ad contrasting Trump's support for a deportation force against Clinton's career fighting for families and children. The spot will air in seven states:

Families Together | Hillary Clinton

Obama reaches out to Desmond Hatfield-Rudin, eight months old, in Brooklyn. (AP/Craig Ruttle)

SURROGATE WATCH:

-- At a Clinton fundraiser in New York City last night, Barack Obama said "a bias against powerful women" could hurt her in November: "There's a reason why we haven't had a woman president," the president said. "We as a society still grapple with what it means to see powerful women and it still troubles us in a lot of ways, unfairly." His remarks about Americans' reluctance to support a powerful woman were among his strongest on the subject, Greg Jaffe notes. Obama described Trump as someone who "shows no interest in even gaining the rudimentary knowledge required to make really hard decisions." (The event was at the home of the founder of Shake Shak.)

Speaking Saturday night to the Congressional Black Caucus on Saturday night, the president said it will be "a personal insult" and "an insult to my legacy" if African American turnout drops off compared to 2012.

-- Elizabeth Warren eviscerated Trump as a "nasty little bully" while stumping for Clinton in Ohio on Saturday, saying he has "more support from the Aryan Nation and the Ku Klux Klan than he does from the leadership of the Republican Party": "I actually think it is very important to talk about what's happening in this race," she said in Cleveland. "I know that presidential races can get intense. I know that people can sometimes say things they won't mean. But [Trump] has repeatedly invited his followers to commit a terrible act of violence on his opponents … He has invited them to kill another human being more than once." (David Weigel)

Trump speaks during a Saturday night rally in Colorado Springs. (AP/ Evan Vucci)

THE DAILY DONALD:

-- Trying to show foreign policy chops, Trump will meet with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on the sidelines of today's U.N. General Assembly in New York. Clinton announced plans to meet with Sisi last week. (Reuters)

-- Leading foreign policy hands are more worried than ever about Trump. "As Kim Jong Un's authoritarian regime remains belligerently committed to developing intercontinental ballistic missiles, several international security experts warn that the next president will probably face the culmination of those efforts. And they worry that Trump is ill equipped to navigate the complicated geopolitical forces at play," Jose A. DelReal reports. Eliot Cohen, for example, says he has never seen foreign-policy professionals so stridently hostile to a candidate. "He is not only an ignoramus, but he's a dangerous ignoramus," said Cohen, who served in the George W. Bush administration.

-- A new report from a pro-trade think tank says Trump's policies could shock the U.S. economy back into a recession -- and cost 4 million private-sector jobs. The Peterson Institute says in a 49-page report that its job-loss estimates are "conservative" and labels Trump's proposals "irresponsible and reckless." The report also faults Clinton for her opposition to TPP, which it claims would result in a $77 billion to $123 billion boost to the U.S. economy within its first year of implementation. "But Clinton, the authors wrote, has a 'nondoctrinaire' record on trade and she 'supports strengthened enforcement of existing rules, increased efforts to deal with currency manipulation, and changes in the tax code that eliminate tax loopholes.'" Clinton has, the report concludes, "expressed skepticism about trade but in effect represents stasis." (David Nakamura)

-- The Trump campaign continues to staff up. Jessica Ditto, the communications director for Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin, is moving to New York for the final six weeks to be deputy communications director for Trump. She will join Jason Miller and Hope Hicks as the campaign's lead spokespeople. Jessica joined Bevin's campaign for the final stretch last year when he was considered the heavy underdog to Democrat Jack Conway. She worked with Miller on that race.

-- Mike Pence released a doctor's letter this weekend indicating that he is in "excellent health." The one-and-half page document is more detailed than the note Trump released last week. The 57-year-old Indiana governor has had three surgeries, the letter says, one for a hernia repair in 2015 and two to remove basal cell carcinomas of the face in 2002 and 2010. (Read the full letter here.) (Sean Sullivan)

John Kasich spoke during a Friday news conference at the White House to promote TPP. (Michael Reynolds/EPA)

SUNDAY SHOW HIGHLIGHTS:

-- Tensions between John Kasich and Reince Priebus exploded into the open last night, with the Ohio governor's top advisers deriding the RNC chairman as "a Kenosha political operative" who is presiding over a "national wipeout" of down-ballot Republicans. "Thankfully, there are still leaders in this country who put principles before politics," Kasich adviser John Weaver said in statement last night. "The idea of a greater purpose beyond oneself may be alien to political party bosses like Reince Priebus, but it is at the center of everything Governor Kasich does."

The statement came after Priebus rebuked the former candidates who have not endorsed Trump and suggested that there will be consequences if they run in 2020. "Those people need to get on board," Priebus said of Kasich, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz on CBS' "Face the Nation." "And if they're thinking they're going to run again someday, I think that we're going to evaluate the process -- of the nomination process and I don't think it's going to be that easy for them."

Kasich, for his part, said on "Meet the Press" that it is "very, very" unlikely he will vote for Trump in November. "I mean, there's too much water under the bridge," the Ohio governor told Chuck Todd. "Look, it is country first. And I am unlikely to cast that vote. The chances are minuscule." He also said Trump should apologize to Obama for years of questioning his citizenship, slamming the birtherism issue for helping stoke "growing division and anger."

Trump and Chris Christie at the 9/11 memorial service last weekend. (Brian Snyder/Reuters)

-- Top Trump surrogates insisted that the "birther" issue has been put to rest. From Jenna Johnson:

Campaign manager Kellyanne Conway repeated Trump's false assertion on CBS that it was Clinton who invented the issue during the 2008 Democratic primaries.
Mike Pence struggled to change topics on ABC, before saying "there are reporters who trace the birther movement all the way back to Hillary Clinton's campaign in 2008" and that "the facts speak for themselves," although he did not list any such facts.
Chris Christie claimed on CNN that it's been five years since Trump questioned Obama's birthplace. "It wasn't like he was talking about it on a regular basis until (Friday)," the New Jersey governor told Jake Tapper. "And when the issue was raised, he made very clear the other day what his position is."

-- The Post's Fact Checker gives Four Pinocchios to Christie for claiming that Trump stopped spouting birther nonsense on a regular basis after 2011: "This is such bogus spin that we have to wonder how Christie manages to say it with a straight face," Glenn Kessler writes. "Regular readers know we shy away from using the word 'lie,' but clearly Christie is either lying or he is so misinformed that he has no business appearing on television."

-- "Trump's effort to end the controversy ... handed Democrats a fresh opportunity to motivate voters, particularly African Americans, who are offended by an issue that had faded to the recesses of the campaign," John Wagner reports. "Black lawmakers, who listened to Obama gleefully mock the Republican nominee's evolving views on his birth certificate during a gala dinner Saturday night, plan to take their condemnation of Trump on the road in the coming weeks. Democrats are already fundraising off the issue. And [Clinton] is widely sharing views on the topic from her supporters and newspaper editorials … Fresh attention to Trump's long-running and false accusations questioning Obama's citizenship could also inspire others from the 'Obama coalition,' which included young voters, Hispanics and college-educated whites, to turn out for less-popular Clinton."

-- Alex Castellanos, the strategist for one of the main Trump super PACs, said there is an "otherness" about Obama: "I think the big question about Obama is not where he was born or his faith," Castellanos, of Rebuilding America Now PAC, said on "Meet the Press." "The big question about Obama has been: Has he been — has he considered himself more of a globalist than an American? There's an otherness to the president, and people have tried to exploit that politically in different ways." (Sean Sullivan)

-- Reality check: Polling shows that "birtherism was why so many Republicans liked Trump in the first place," by Michael Tesler on Monkey Cage: "Birtherism was significantly correlated with Republicans' perceptions of how Trump would do as president. The right-hand graph shows that nearly half of the strongest birthers thought that he would make a good or great president. Only a quarter of Republicans who thought Obama was born in the United States believed that."

MORE FROM THE SHOWS:

-- During his interview on ABC, Pence also said Trump was not encouraging violence against Clinton when he said Friday night that "her bodyguards should drop all [their] weapons" and "let's see what happens to her." "Well I think, you know, Trump believes in the safety and security of every American, and any suggestion otherwise regarding Secretary Clinton is just nonsense," Pence said. "The point that he was making is that [Clinton] has had private security now in her life for the last 30 years, but she would deny the right of law-abiding citizens to have a firearm in their home to protect their own families." (Callum Borchers)

-- Tim Kaine condemned Trump for inciting violence, or "at a minimum" for expressing indifference as to whether violence would occur. "This is a pattern that has been repeated over and over again, and I think this doesn't belong in any race, much less a race to be president of this country," the senator said on Fox News Sunday.

-- Trump accused the media of "gaming the system" ahead of next week's presidential debate. "They hammered Lauer, but Matt did a fine job," Trump said on Fox News's Media Buzz." "Matt was very tough on me. ... It's called gaming the system, like a great basketball coach like Bobby Knight, who was one of the greats. He would hit the referee and keep hitting him, and then at the end he was hoping for that favorable call. Well, they're hitting Matt Lauer, and that's sort of indicative ... They want the hosts to go after Trump. And that's what they're doing by gaming the system." (Callum Borchers)

-- Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson has been formally excluded from the first presidential debate – but he said he will try to muscle his way into the second one. "You know, the clock does keep on ticking," Johnson said on CNN's "Reliable Sources" on Sunday. And running mate William Weld denied the two were feeling pressure to drop out. Johnson also said he is glad no one got injured in Saturday's New York blast -- even though many did.

And he apologized again for his Aleppo gaffe. "I am human," the former New Mexico governor said on CBS News's "60 Minutes."

-- Martha Stewart – maybe not the ideal endorser -- said she will vote for Clinton: "This is the most important election of the last hundred years," the convicted felon told CNN Money. "We have to be very certain that we elect a person who has experience, knowledge, a base of education in the world of world politics as well as domestic politics. There is so much to know and so much to learn and so much diplomacy and kindness and introspection that goes with that kind of job … And it does not exist in the world of Donald Trump."

Hillary arrives at DCA on Saturday for a day of fundraising and campaigning. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)

THE BATTLEGROUNDS:

-- "Republicans seize on Obamacare woes to help save congressional majority," by Mike DeBonis and David Weigel: "Republicans aren't running a national campaign -- instead, they're lobbing localized attacks in key states on issues plaguing the state insurance exchanges mandated by the law. ... Two national insurers, UnitedHealth and Aetna, have drastically scaled back their participation in the exchanges across the country, citing financial losses. And in dozens of states — including Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Indiana — insurers have sought major rate hikes that could hit voters just before Election Day."

-- A New York Times/Siena College poll shows a statistical tie in the Sunshine State, with Clinton at 41 and Trump at 40. (Toplines here. Story here.)

-- "The Clinton campaign is pessimistic about both Ohio and Iowa," Dan Balz and Phil Rucker report. "Florida remains extremely competitive, according to public and private polls, and probably will be until the end. Clinton advisers, however, note that they can lose all three of those states and still win the presidency. Their position is strengthened, they argue, by what they say are strong standings in Virginia and Colorado because of the demographics there. … Clinton advisers are zeroing in on North Carolina as a potential back-breaker for Trump. Joel Benenson, Clinton's chief strategist and pollster, called North Carolina a 'roadblock' state. … New Hampshire's four electoral votes and Nevada's six votes might seem trivial at first glance, but both campaigns recognize that if the election ends up in a photo finish, either or both of those states could play decisive roles."

Why have the polls tightened? "Geoff Garin, the Priorities USA pollster, said Trump's surge in Ohio and elsewhere is largely due to his consolidation of Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters. He said that at the moment, at least, these voters — the Mitt Romney coalition in 2012 — see Trump as an acceptable alternative to Clinton following several weeks of relatively disciplined campaigning by Trump. 'The phenomenon we are seeing right now primarily is just Donald Trump being normalized among Republican voters,' Garin said. But, he cautioned, it 'doesn't get him beyond the 2012 map in any form or fashion.'"

-- Despite Trump's recent momentum, his prospects for getting to 270 electoral votes remain dim. Chris Cillizza outlines his only three conceivable paths to the presidency:

Win Pennsylvania: If Trump could turn the Keystone State, which is one of the 18 "Blue Wall" states that have voted Democratic in each of the past six elections, then the map opens up for him.
Win Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado or Virginia: Colorado and Virginia have been swing states for at least the past two elections and, in Colorado's case, far longer. But Trump's struggles with nonwhite voters have badly complicated his chances in both states.
Win Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire – giving each candidate 269 votes, throwing the election to the House of Representatives, and thus invalidating the Democrats' electoral-college edge.

"None of those three scenarios is outlandish," Cillizza concludes. "But they all require Trump to not only consolidate the gains he has made over the past few weeks but also to expand them. His recent surge has brought him back into contention. But it has not vaulted him ahead."

-- Ohio Sen. Rob Portman will today launch a Spanish-language television ad campaign, spending some $250,000 as he seeks to expand his lead over Democratic rival Ted Strickland. The DSCC is slashing ad buys for Strickland, shifting money to more competitive races in Missouri and North Carolina. (Ed O'Keefe)

-- Kelly Ayotte is hurt by Trump's failure to invest in a ground game, says the Boston Globe's James Pindell: Maggie "Hassan's campaign is part of a coordinated Democratic party operation fueled by hundreds of staffers and thousands of volunteers — and their efforts benefit not only Clinton but Hassan as well. In past elections, Republicans have implemented a similar model. But Trump has not invested in much of a ground game this year in New Hampshire, leaving the get-out-the-vote efforts to roughly 50 staffers from the RNC."

-- "Trump's climate science denial clashes with reality of rising seas in Florida," by the Los Angeles Times's Michael Finnegan: "A few blocks from the Miami Beach hotel where Trump spoke (last month), water flooded over a seawall last year during the highest autumn tides, blocking traffic on one of South Florida's main evacuation routes. The city is now elevating that street and many others as part of a $500-million program to protect itself from the rising ocean. … With Florida, Georgia, Virginia and other coastal states beset by more and more high-tide flooding as the sea level rises, Trump has been muting his argument that climate change is not really happening. A shrinking minority of Americans, mainly conservative Republicans, share his opinion … The nearly flat Miami region (was) built mostly on drained swamps. Over the last decade, streets in low-lying neighborhoods have begun flooding during the highest tides, usually when the moon is full around the fall equinox. The storm drain system, built on the assumption that gravity will carry water downward into Biscayne Bay, can't function when the tide rises above street level."

WAPO HIGHLIGHTS:

Antinarcotics officers rappel from a helicopter to blow up a FARC lab used for processing cocaine in 2011. (Guillermo Legaria/AFP/Getty Images)

-- What American leadership looks like --> "'Plan Colombia': How Washington learned to love Latin American intervention again," by Nick Miroff: "Following a decade of setbacks and declining troop strength, FARC leaders are preparing to formally sign an agreement Sept. 26 to end their half-century campaign to topple Colombia's government … Among Colombian officials, U.S. diplomats and rebel commanders, there is a broad consensus that Plan Colombia marked a turning point — militarily and psychologically — in the conflict. After 16 years and $10 billion, the once-controversial security aid package is celebrated today by many Republicans and Democrats in Congress as one of the top U.S. foreign policy achievements of the 21st century. … It delivered a shot of confidence to Colombia's institutions … [and] gave the country a vast, sophisticated intelligence-gathering system to hunt the rebels.

"We were no longer in a confrontation with the Colombian army," said a FARC negotiator. "We were facing an international intervention, and it took a toll."

Jim Cooley carries his AR-15 semiautomatic rifle last week in Winder, Georgia. He almost never leaves his home unarmed. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

-- "In Jim Cooley's open-carry America, even a trip to Walmart can require an AR-15," by Terrence McCoy: "All Jim Cooley wants to do is buy some soda. 'You want to come to Walmart?' he asks. 'I'm not going to sit there and have the police called on you,' [his wife] says, knowing what a trip to Walmart means. She knows her 51-year-old husband has two guns inside the house, and this afternoon [it'll] be the AR-15 semiautomatic rifle, which he brings when going somewhere he thinks is dangerous, like the Atlanta airport, where he's taken it loaded with a 100-bullet drum, or Walmart, where he thinks crowds could pose easy targets for terrorists. In a country of relaxing gun laws where it's now legal to open-carry in 45 states … every day seems to bring a new version of what open carry can mean. In Kentucky, it's now legal to open-carry in city buildings. In Howell, Mich. … a father went openly armed to his child's middle-school orientation. In Mississippi, it's now legal to open-carry without a permit at all. And in Georgia, Jim Cooley is staking out his version of what's acceptable with his wife."

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

— ZIGNAL VISUAL: It's the coverage, stupid. In a campaign full of surreal moments, last week was a strange one. While it is not yet clear whether it will mark a turning point in the presidential campaign, it did seem to mark a change in temperature of the coverage of Trump. Looking at the top Tweeted stories from full-time Trump and Clinton beat reporters can give us insights into the narratives surrounding each nominee and shows a new effort by reporters to pin down Trump, who has proven an elusive target of media hits throughout this campaign. Last week, both candidates faced critical stories being circulated by those who cover them. But Clinton reporters were more likely to tweet links to stories critical of Trump. Part of it simply underscores the fact that, for better or for worse, Trump was in many ways the focus of the week.

Via our analytics partners at Zignal Labs, here are the most shared stories by Trump and Clinton reporters, respectively:

Clinton congratulated Kate McKinnon on her first Emmy award:

SNL also celebrated:

Trump went after several people on Twitter over the weekend, including former Defense Secretary Bob Gates (who wrote an op-ed critical of him in the Wall Street Journal):

And Maureen Dowd:

Jane Goodall compared Trump to a chimpanzee:

Trump entered a rally in Miami to "Do You Hear the People Sing" from Les Miserables (or Les Deplorables, according to the PowerPoint -- click to watch):

The chairman of the Ohio GOP -- and others -- slammed Reince Priebus for saying the RNC could block Kasich and Bush from running again if they don't support Trump:

So did Mitt Romney's chief strategist:

The DCCC continues to send alarmist fundraising emails, which reporters love to mock:

But the DCCC gets the last laugh: they raised $5.16 million online last month alone...

The House Majority Leader hung out with ex-NFL player Joey Porter:

Check out this incredible moonrise over the Capitol:

Chris Christie's former Deputy Chief of Staff, Bridget Anne Kelly, leaves federal court last week after a hearing for jury selection in Newark. Jurors will hear opening statements today in her trial. (Mel Evans/AP)

GOOD READS FROM ELSEWHERE:

-- "After New Jersey Bridge Scandal, Two Lives Veer Off Course," by Ted Mann and Josh Dawsey: "She was deputy chief of staff to Gov. Chris Christie and enjoyed considerable power in the New Jersey Republican's orbit. He was a state senator turned Port Authority executive … Now Bridget Kelly, a single mother of four, is struggling to make ends meet. Bill Baroni divides his time between the gym and helping his lawyers pore over documents in the criminal case against him." Today, Kelly and Baroni face trial on felony counts stemming from the 2013 George Washington Bridge lane closures. And in the aftermath of the federal investigation, few lives have changed more than theirs..."

HOT ON THE LEFT

"'They just don't fit in': UCLA study links racism and segregation in Orange County," from The Guardian: A new academic study bolsters the case that racism in Orange County fuels segregation in the area. "Celia Lacayo, a postdoctoral scholar at UCLA's Institute of American Cultures, has published a report titled Latinos Need to Stay in Their Place: Differential Segregation in a Multi-Ethnic Suburb. It is based on in-depth interviews with 40 white residents … aged 25 to 61 and mostly middle to upper class professionals … A small sample, but with striking findings. The respondents 'overwhelmingly characterized Latinos and African Americans as culturally deficient, problematic and inferior,' according to Lacayo. They used words like 'trash,' 'third world' and 'gangy.'"

HOT ON THE RIGHT

"Clinton Foundation Spent Less Than 6 Percent On Charitable Grants In 2014," from the Federalist: "During 2014, the tax-exempt foundation spent a total of $91.2 million, but less than $5.2 million of that money, or 5.7 percent, was granted to charitable organizations …. The organization's charitable grants also declined significantly when compared to its donations in 2013. ... According to the tax filings, the Clinton Foundation is currently sitting on $354 million in assets, including $125 million in cash or cash equivalents and $108 million in property or equipment."

DAYBOOK:

On the campaign trail: Trump is in Fort Myers, Fla.; Pence is in Mason City and Dubuque, Iowa. Clinton is in Philadelphia and on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon; Kaine is in Aimes, Iowa.

At the White House: In New York City, Obama participates in a DSCC roundtable, holds a meeting with Premier Li Keqiang of China, holds a bilateral meetings with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of Iraq and holds a meet-and-greet with staff at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations. Biden, also in New York, joins a trilateral meeting on the cancer moonshot with health experts from Japan and Korea and speaks at the Social Good Summit at the 92nd Street YMCA and the Bloomberg Hopkins Gala at the Manhattan Center.

On Capitol Hill: The Senate meets at 3 p.m. to work on the motion to proceed to the legislative vehicle for the short-term CR. The House meets at 2 p.m. in pro forma session, with no votes expected.

QUOTE OF THE DAY:

"People say all the time to me, 'Do you miss Washington?' Nah," George W. Bush said at a black-tie fundraiser celebrating the National Park Service at Wolf Trap. "I do miss being pampered. It's kind of a pain to have to stop at some stoplights today coming from Dulles."

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

-- A day of heavy rain is ahead. Be sure to pack your umbrella! Today's Capital Weather Gang forecasts: "Rain is likely today, and embedded thunder and heavy downpours are possible. The heaviest rain is likely between the morning and mid-afternoon hours. Totals should average around an inch, but substantially higher (2 to 3 inches or more) amounts are possible in some areas — while some areas get less. Showers could linger into the evening but should then decrease in coverage and intensity. Clouds hold temperatures mostly in the mid-to-upper 70s."

-- The Redskins are 0-2 after losing to the Cowboys 27-23.

-- The Nationals lost to the Braves 6-2.

-- American University is investigating two white male freshmen who may have thrown a banana peel through the dorm window of a black female student. Another African American student found a rotten banana peel – and an obscene drawing -- outside her dorm room. (Joe Heim)

-- A body was found in a Prince George's County stream yesterday. Authorities said he was found right off a jogging trail in the Northwest Branch Stream Valley Park. (Donna St. George)

This is getting out of hand --> "A $1,000 date night: Has D.C.'s tasting-menu culture hit a tipping point?," by Maura Judkis: "The Michelin Guide arrives next month, in the wake of a series of expensive restaurant debuts this year: Pineapple and Pearls, with its $250 all-inclusive price, opened April 7, and Eric Ziebold's Metier, with a $200 tasting menu excluding drinks, opened April 26. The Georgetown restaurant 1789 just reopened as a prix-fixe restaurant, at $85 to $109 for its tasting menus. And Minibar, the current record-holder for the most expensive restaurant in the city, raised its prices this year, from $250 to $275, with beverages costing up to $500. The price was $65 when Minibar debuted in 2003. Those restaurants join the stalwarts of special-occasion restaurants, such as the Inn at Little Washington (about $375 per person on average, including wine, tax and tip), Restaurant Eve (about $315) and Komi ($225, without tax or tip)."

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

Jeb Bush made a hilarious cameo, appearing as a chauffeur during an opening bit in which Kimmel pretended to be hitching a last-minute ride to the show. "I'm between jobs," the uniformed Bush explained. He added, "Are you nominated?" When the late-night host replied yes, he quipped, "Wow, what's that like?" Bush then asked whether Kimmel thought he could win, but Kimmel wasn't so sure. "If you run a positive campaign, the voters will ultimately make the right choice," Bush said. Kimmel seemed heartened until Bush said, "Jimmy, that was a joke," then threw him out of the limo. (Stephanie Merry's story. Click the tweet to see the video.)