Last month previewed life on a more extreme planet. In Vermont, a single storm dropped two months of rain in 48 hours. Fires raged "like a blowtorch" across the Mediterranean. The waters off South Florida, driven by global sea surface temperatures experiencing two decades' worth of warming in a single year, reached a blistering 101 degrees Fahrenheit. In the Phoenix metro area, millions sweltered under temperatures at or above 110 for more than four weeks, smashing U.S. records rivaled only by Death Valley, along the California-Nevada border. As El Niño supercharges human-driven warming, expect blowtorch conditions to continue at least until the end of the year. We may look back on July, the hottest month on record, as the moment when much of the world simultaneously felt the full fury of climate change for the first time. "The era of global warming has ended," U.N. Secretary General António Guterres declared Thursday. "The era of global boiling has arrived." But for scientists like Claudia Tebaldi of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, July was not historic. It was just another data point climate modelers have been predicting with ever-increasing accuracy since at least the 1960s. "It's not like what we see outside our window wasn't part of the possibilities," says Tebaldi, who uses statistical analysis to help refine climate change projections. "It was just the part that was deemed the much more pessimistic." Scientists will be studying this summer for years to understand just what it means for the complex interaction between the oceans, atmosphere and land as humans alter their environment. But the sheer size of these anomalies, while surprising, are only part of a trend that keeps going up. A more useful way to see this summer, she suggests, is not as exceeding some critical threshold, but as a sign that we're shoving the planet closer to more dangerous — and predictable — instability. "As we keep on playing with the system," she warns, "we need to be ready for more surprising behavior." |
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