Wednesday, 27 July 2016

Wonkbook: Why the Federal Reserve is rethinking everything

By Ylan Q. Mui The Federal Reserve is being forced to reevaluate its most basic assumptions about the economy after trillions of dollars of stimulus and years of ultralow interest rates have failed to generate a more robust recovery. For years, the central bank's top officials pointed to "persistent headwinds" emanating from the Great Recession …
 
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Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen speaks at an event hosted by the Economic Club of Washington in Washington December 2, 2015.      REUTERS/Joshua Roberts

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet L. Yellen speaks at an event hosted by the Economic Club of Washington in Washington on Dec. 2, 2015. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts

By Ylan Q. Mui

The Federal Reserve is being forced to reevaluate its most basic assumptions about the economy after trillions of dollars of stimulus and years of ultralow interest rates have failed to generate a more robust recovery.

For years, the central bank's top officials pointed to "persistent headwinds" emanating from the Great Recession as the culprit for the tepid pace of the economy's expansion: Government spending cuts were depressing growth. Households were paying off debt, spending less and saving more. Borrowing money got harder. Once those trends turned around, they argued, the economy would get back to normal.

Seven years after the recession officially ended, many of the headwinds have indeed dissipated — yet normal remains elusive. In its place is a gnawing fear that the economy has permanently downshifted into an era of weak growth that policymakers have little power to reverse. Fed officials have all but given up hope of the 3 percent rate of expansion once considered the baseline for a healthy economy. Instead, they are coming to grips with the possibility that lackluster growth is the best this recovery can offer.

Read the rest on Wonkblog.


 

Chart of the day

Few people who commit crimes with firearms actually own their guns. Christopher Ingraham has more.

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