45 claims. Four days. Fact-checking the 2016 Democratic National Convention Welcome to the 2016 general election. Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine officially became the Democratic presidential and vice presidential nominee this week, kicking off the 102-day dash to Election Day. Last week, we brought you the highlights from the Republican National Convention. We fact-checked 45 claims over four days this week, and have included many of them below. Compared to Trump’s statistics-laden version that was like catnip for fact-checking, Clinton’s acceptance speech was largely based on her opinions, and sparse in terms of facts and figures. Read the rest of our round-ups here: Day 1 (Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and more) // Day 2 (Bill Clinton, Barbara Boxer, Cecile Richards and more) // Day 3 (President Obama, Tim Kaine and more) // Day 4 (mostly Hillary Clinton) "More than 90 percent of the gains have gone to the top 1 percent, that's where the money is." –Hillary Clinton Clinton repeats an old Bernie Sanders line, but the numbers are out of date. Clinton is claiming that the top 1 percent of Americans is earning 90 percent of the gains in income but there is increasing evidence that income imbalance has improved in recent years as the economy has improved since the Great Recession. The 90 percent figure stems from research by Emmanuel Saez of the University of California at Berkeley, based on data between 2009 and 2012. Saez in June 2015 updated that study with figures dating to 2014. The new numbers showed that the top 1 percent captured 58 percent of total real income growth between 2009 and 2014. In June 2016, Saez updated his figures again to include data for 2015, and it showed yet again that share going to the top 1 percent had dropped; it is now 52 percent for the period between 2009 and 2015. Saez's calculations now show that the share earned by the top 1 percent has fallen with each year since the Great Recession. "The recovery now looks somewhat more even," Saez said. "Bernie Sanders and I will work together to make college tuition-free for the middle class and debt-free for all." –Clinton Clinton embraced elements of Sanders's college funding plan, including free tuition at all community colleges. "Middle class" covers a range from about $42,000 to $125,000, and the plan proposes free tuition in phases for families within that range, for students attending in-state four-year schools. But some families will have to wait longer than others. She proposes immediate free tuition for students from families making $85,000 or less, to attend in-state four-year schools. Free tuition at such schools will not be available for families making between $85,000 and $125,000 until 2021. Her plan also demands state financial participation. But experts raised concerns that some states would decline to participate, and what that would mean for tuition relief, the New York Times reported. "Independent analysts … found Trump's tax plan given to the wealthy and big corporations would rack up $30 trillion in debt." —Tim Kaine Kaine, a member of the Senate Budget Committee, based this figure on a December report from the well-respected and nonpartisan Urban Institute-Brookings Institution Tax Policy Center. But he is citing a 20-year budget figure, which is an uncommonly long length of time to evaluate the impact of policy decisions. (Generally, analysts cite 10 years — and for decades Congress used five-year budget plans.) A longer budget window greatly increases the numbers. The report shows, for instance, that the tax revenue loss would remain relatively consistent over either a 10-year or 20-year period — about 4 percent of GDP. But added years increase the number (as well as the additional interest that must be paid on the national debt). |
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