News Reporter: The Daily 202: Rank-and-file Republicans souring on Trump in new Post/ABC poll

Rank-and-file Republicans souring on Trump in new Post/ABC poll

Donald Trump speaks during a news conference at his golf course in Turnberry, Scotland. (Reuters/Carlo Allegri)

THE BIG IDEA: Many Republicans who initially rallied around Donald Trump after he clinched the nomination are having second thoughts.

Hillary Clinton has opened a 12-point lead over Trump in the new Washington Post/ABC national poll, a 14-point swing in her direction since last month.

Much of this can be explained by Bernie Sanders supporters rallying behind Clinton, and Republicans moving away from Trump. While 88 percent of Democratic-leaning voters say they support Clinton, just 79 percent of Republican-leaning voters back Trump.

-- The GOP base is not unifying ahead of next month's convention in Cleveland. "Nearly one-third of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say Trump is unqualified for office, and 18 percent say he does not represent their beliefs," Scott Clement and Philip Rucker report. "Just 69 percent of self-identified Republicans who supported a candidate other than Trump in the primary say they now support Trump; 13 percent say they back Clinton, while 11 percent volunteer 'neither.'"

Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 36 percent say Trump's comments show he is unfairly biased toward certain groups, while 39 percent say the comments about Judge Gonzalo Curiel were racist and 71 percent say they were inappropriate.
62 percent of Republican-leaning voters want GOP leaders to speak out against Trump when they disagree with his views, while 35 percent think they should avoid criticizing him.

-- Where will these Republican go? Clinton is up 51-39 in a head-to-head match-up with Trump. When we gave respondents the additional options of Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein, she still had a 10-point lead. Johnson gets 7 percent, and Stein pulled just 3 points.

-- Meanwhile, Bernie supporters are rallying behind Clinton faster than expected. Just 8 percent of voters who backed Sanders in the primaries say they support Trump, down from 20 percent in May. Our poll was in the field right before Sanders said he will vote for Clinton in the general election (though he has not formally endorsed her). Aaron Blake notes that Sanders's backers are rallying around Clinton much faster than Clinton's supporters rallied around Barack Obama in 2008: "In June 2008, 20 percent of Clinton backers said they'd go for John McCain. In July, it was 22 percent, then 18 percent in August and 19 percent in September. It finally dropped to 14 percent in October." Aaron also flags a Pew poll last week that showed Sanders supporters are more anti-Republican Party than Clinton backers: "About 7 in 10 of them, in fact, said the Republican Party makes them 'afraid' vs. 55 percent of Clinton supporters."

-- To be sure, a large number of Republicans who find Trump odious are holding their noses: 18 percent of people who found Trump's comments about the judge racist, 15 percent of those who think his comments generally are biased against women, minorities or Muslims, and 11 percent of those who think he is unqualified say that they support Trump over Clinton.

-- But Trump is not being conciliatory. The mogul told the New York Times that those who do not endorse him will not be allowed to speak in Cleveland, specifically citing Ted Cruz and John Kasich (the home-state governor). Because the Texas senator won more than eight states, he is actually entitled to speak if he wants to – whether Trump allows it or not – which could create a mess. (Although, a lot of big-name Republicans do not want to be asked to speak...) "The R.N.C. and the Trump campaign are also installing loyal party stalwarts in key party positions to help ensure that they maintain control of the convention if rogue delegates attempt a disruption," Jeremy Peters reports. "And they are trying to discredit Republicans who are advocating an interpretation of party rules that would allow delegates to vote for anyone they want on the first ballot."

-- Big picture, Clinton's image is not good but Trump's is toxic:

70 percent of Americans are anxious about the prospect of a Trump administration.
64 percent say Trump is "not qualified" to be president, up 6 points in a month. (56 percent say they "feel strongly" that he's unqualified.)
68 percent say Trump's attacks on Judge Gonzalo Curiel's Mexican heritage was racist.
56 percent say Trump stands against their beliefs.
Only 28 percent thought Trump did a better job responding to Orlando than Clinton, and she has the edge on who is best to handle terrorism.
The attack at the Pulse nightclub also did not increase support for Trump's proposal to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States: 43 percent support the ban, and 52 percent oppose it. That's steady from our previous surveys.

President Obama arrives at Andrews Air Force Base on Saturday, returning from Seattle. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

-- Obama is an asset for Clinton. His approval rating in our poll is 56 percent, reflecting a post-Orlando bounce. It's his highest standing since right after he killed Osama bin Laden.

-- Two warning signs for Clinton:

Trump's supporters are more like to vote than Clinton's: 73 percent of white men say they are certain to vote in November, compared to only 44 percent of Hispanics. There are similar gaps between the old and the young, Philip Bump notes.

Also, 56 percent want to elect a president who can set the nation in a new direction. Among that group, Trump leads 64-26. James Downie, the digital opinions editor, puts this in context: "The same percentage said that seven months before the end of another president's second term. That president was Ronald Reagan."

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WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING:

Violence takes over Sacramento 'traditionalist' rally

GET SMART FAST:

A rally by a small group of neo-Nazi demonstrators at the California state Capitol erupted into a violent clash with protesters that left at least 10 people injured – five of them stabbed. (Sacramento Bee)
The National Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch for 22 West Virginia counties today. Heavy rains are possible in many of the same areas already ravaged by last week's floods, which killed 24 people. Greenbrier County has been hardest hit; 16 have died and floodwaters have yet to recede. (AP)
A yellow fever epidemic in Angola and Congo that has killed more than 400 could soon turn into a global crisis. "There are growing concerns that Chinese workers — of whom there are thousands in Angola — will carry the virus to Asia, where nearly all of the rural poor are also unvaccinated. … And the four major manufacturers that produce the vaccine cannot make enough to conduct the kind of campaign that would quickly halt the spread." (Kevin Sieff)
Israel and Turkey have reconciled after they broke off relations in 2016 following an Israeli naval raid that killed nine Turkish activists. The agreement comes as Turkey becomes increasingly isolated from its neighbors, including Russia, Syria and Egypt. (AP)
Spain's conservative Popular Party won 14 more seats in Sunday elections, but it's unclear if that will be enough to form a government. (AP)
Iraqi forces have finally expelled ISIS troops from Fallujah, a highly symbolic victory given it was the first Iraqi city captured by ISIS and just an hour away from Baghdad. (Loveday Morris and Mustafa Salim)
An al-Qaeda affiliated group killed at least 11 at a hotel in the Somali capital of Mogadishu. Al-Shabab attackers detonated a car bomb near the entrance of the Nasa Hablood hotel as attacks on hotels increase there. (Kevin Sieff)
The Panama Canal opened to expanded cargo ships, after a $5.25 billion renovation that ran two years behind schedule. (Steven Mufson in Panama City)
An Amtrak train struck a minivan in Colorado, killing three children and two adults. (Travis M. Andrews)
A Texas mother, an outspoken supporter of gun rights with a history of mental illness, fatally shot her two adult daughters outside her home and then was killed by a responding police officer. (Travis M. Andrews)
Baltimore rapper Lor Scoota was leaving a charity basketball game he hosted Saturday, whose mission was to promote "peace in these streets," when an unknown assailant murdered him. Homicide detectives are investigating the shooting as a targeted attack. (Jessica Contrera)
Buenos Aires is closing its zoo because, the mayor says, holding animals in captivity is too degrading. (Elahe Izadi)

Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn leaves his house in London yesterday. (Isabel Infantes/PA via AP)

BREXIT FALLOUT:

-- Both of Britain's leading parties are in turmoil. From Dan Balz, Anthony Faiola and Michael Birnbaum:

"Sunday opened with news that Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn had fired one of the most senior members of his leadership team, Hilary Benn, after Benn told the leader he had lost confidence in him. The sacking of Benn led to a succession of resignations by other members of the Labour cabinet. By late in the day, at least 10 others had quit their positions in what amounted to a rolling repudiation of Corbyn's leadership by his elected colleagues. [Last] night, Corbyn again said he would not be pushed out. … The Labour revolt reflected fears that the party could suffer what Benn called a 'catastrophic' defeat if, as expected, there is a general election called this year after the Conservative Party chooses a leader to succeed Cameron. … Corbyn faces a vote of no confidence among his parliamentary peers this week."

"Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London and the leading voice in the campaign to exit the E.U., is considered the favorite to take over from [David] Cameron [as leader of the Conservative Party and thus Prime Minister]. But the flamboyant Johnson is a magnet for controversy. Newspapers Sunday were filled with reports of gathering efforts by other Conservatives to deny him the post he has long been maneuvering to claim."

Happening today: Secretary of State John F. Kerry will visit Brussels and London. German Chancellor Angela "Merkel, French President François Hollande and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi plan to huddle in Berlin to coordinate their demands for Britain ahead of a Tuesday summit of all 28 E.U. leaders in Brussels. Cameron will be present for that Tuesday meeting and will no doubt be asked to explain himself over what could be a foul-spirited dinner. On Wednesday, the leaders will kick Cameron out of the room and discuss how to handle what will probably be years of torturous divorce negotiations."

Kerry: 'special relationship' with UK will continue

-- A sharp spike in racist incidents reported: Britain's vote to leave the European Union has emboldened those who harbor virulent racist sentiments. There are online accounts of kids getting harassed in school, old people yelling at immigrants to get off buses and Muslims getting shouted at in the streets. "Police in west London were investigating what they called a 'racially motivated' attack against the Polish Social and Cultural Association," Max Bearak reports. "Poles make up the largest foreign-born population in the United Kingdom. The organization's building was apparently defaced with graffiti that said, 'Go home.' In Cambridgeshire, leaflets were apparently distributed with 'Leave the EU/No more Polish vermin' written in both English and Polish."

-- Immigrants uncertain about their future. "Those campaigning for Brexit offered clear assurances that a new immigration system would not affect E.U. citizens already living in Britain. But the exact terms of the U.K.'s divorce from the E.U. will not be known for some time," Karla Adam and James McAuley report. "And in the meantime, there is concern among the U.K.'s 7.5 million foreign-born residents about their future in a country where not all of them feel welcome."

Charlotte Kerin, 5, plays with snails outside the public housing tower where she lives. Her father, Antony, 38, used to work at an oil refinery but now looks after his teenage son, who suffered a psychotic break after years of vicious bullying in school. Antony voted for Brexit, but now regrets his decision. He is one of more than 2.5 million Brits who have signed a petition calling for a second referendum. (Photo by Shannon Jensen Wedgwood/For The Washington Post)

-- Many who voted to leave the E.U. already regret it: Rick Noack reports from Tilbury, England, a faded port city where 72 percent voted for Brexit that the initial excitement has given way to fear. "Some in this town of 12,000 have also begun to wonder whether they had been misled by politicians advocating to leave the E.U. 'I was swayed by the rhetorics, but if I had thought this through, I would have voted to stay in. I would certainly do so now,' said Antony Kerin, 38. Tilbury was hoping to receive an E.U. grant worth more than $6 million, but those dreams were shattered by the referendum results. Kerin, who moved to Tilbury 10 years ago and is unemployed, said he had been trying to move to public housing in a different city. But he will probably have to remain patient: Out of Thurrock's 165,000 residents, 6,500 are on a waiting or transfer list for public housing. 'They're making us stay here to rot,' said Kerin."

-- Now that they've won, Brexit leaders are also walking back some of their biggest promises, specifically the claims that the money transferred to the E.U. would instead be spent on the public health system instead and that immigration would decline. (Max Bearak)

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, is greeted by Chinese President Xi Jinping as he arrives in Beijing for a summit on Saturday. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

-- Brexit is a BIG WIN for Vladimir Putin. Michael McFaul, who was the U.S. Ambassador to Russia from 2012-2014, writes in today's Post: "The job of E.U. diplomats fighting to resist Russian aggression, especially those from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, just got harder. The first test will come over sanctions against Russia for annexing Crimea and intervening in eastern Ukraine in support of separatists. … Second, other pro-Putin, anti-E.U. politicians and movements throughout Europe just became a little stronger. Marine Le Pen, whose National Front party is partially financed by a Kremlin-friendly Russian bank, celebrated the U.K. referendum result. Third, new doubts about the utility of E.U. membership also weaken Putin's opponents in Ukraine. Fourth, America's closest ally when voting in multilateral forums, pressing diplomatically on global security issues and championing democratic values just became a little weaker."

Bernie Sanders delivers A "Where We Go From Here" speech on Friday. (AP Photo/Mike Groll)

THE DEMOCRATIC DENOUEMENT:

-- "Bernie Sanders's next challenge: Where will he take his revolution?" From David Weigel and John Wagner in Syracuse, N.Y.: On Friday night, he made his first stop for a congressional candidate, a 70-year-old academic named Eric Kingson. It offered a glimpse of the post-presidential-bid figure he would like to become.

"At the urging of his wife, Jane Sanders, he has been talking to his inner circle about launching a grass-roots organization to harness the energy of his supporters. Among aides, there is chatter about who might staff such an organization, which might resemble Democracy for America, the group that former Vermont governor Howard Dean launched following his failed 2004 presidential bid."
Sanders's profile in the Senate is expected to increase once he returns to the chamber full time, and aides say he will almost certainly seek reelection in 2018 — though it is unclear whether either will translate into more muscle on Capitol Hill. Sanders has suggested that he will try to mobilize his supporters around key issues and that he wants to lead the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, which has jurisdiction over many of the high-profile issues he pushed during his campaign.
The Sanders campaign claims 2.7 million people are on its donor list.

-- Clinton manager Robby Mook is in close contact with Sanders manager Jeff Weaver. They had dinner Friday night in Burlington, Vermont. "They talk almost daily, text frequently and email often," per the AP's Lisa Lerer and Ken Thomas.

-- The Sanders campaign continues to scale back staffing. Press secretary Symone Sanders, no relation to the candidate, has moved on. (Fusion)

-- Post Brexit, Hillary will run more aggressively against Washington. Speaking to the National Conference of Mayors in Indianapolis yesterday, Clinton decried the paralysis in the capital – on everything from guns to Merrick Garland. "Instead of solving problems, Washington is too often making them worse," she said, adding that mayors couldn't get away with responding to their constituents "with a snarky tweet. You have to deliver results." (John Wagner)

SUNDAY SHOW HIGHLIGHTS:

-- Mitch McConnell declined to say whether he thinks Trump is qualified to be president. "I think there's no question that he's made a number of mistakes over the last few weeks," the Senate Majority Leader said on ABC's "This Week." "I think they're beginning to right the ship. It's a long time until November. And the burden, obviously, will be on him to convince people that he can handle this job."

-- Trump chairman Paul Manafort insisted that Clinton does not have an organizational advantage. He said they've been organizing behind the scenes for weeks and added that "major announcements" will be made this week about national and state-level leadership changes. (Michelle Ye Hee Lee)

-- Hank Paulson, George W. Bush's Treasury Secretary, will vote for Clinton. "Simply put, a Trump presidency is unthinkable," he writes in an op-ed for The Post.

-- Mitt Romney's biggest donors are sitting on the sidelines too. Of the 1,400 people who donated to the Romney super PAC in 2012, only 29 gave to Trump's campaign, the joint fundraising committee he created with the RNC of the pro-Trump super PAC Great America PAC through the end of May, according to a USA Today tally.

WAPO HIGHLIGHTS:

In this Aug. 31, 1970 photo, an NYPD officer grabs a youth by the hair as another officer clubs a young man during a confrontation in Greenwich Village after a Gay Power march. Decades after a police raid at the Stonewall Inn bar in New York sparked the modern gay rights movement, President Obama recognized it as a historical site. (AP Photo/File)

-- "A quiet campaign is placing gay people and their rights struggle in U.S. history," by Lisa Grace Lednicer: At Independence Hall in Philadelphia, "an additional human rights story is being told at the symbolic birthplace of the United States: that of Reminder Days, one of the earliest public protests against LGBT discrimination. Tour guides talk about the primly dressed demonstrators who marched past the Liberty Bell on July 4 for five years in the 1960s, reminding the public that gay people lacked basic rights. ... President Obama's designation on Friday of the Stonewall Inn in New York's Greenwich Village as a national monument comes amid a push across the country to write lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people into the nation's collective history."

-- "Why Washingtons most powerful women are wearing this jacket," by Robin Givhan: "Nina McLemore is not a speech coach or life coach. She's a fashion designer who advises female clients on how to dress for work ... she has made a name for herself with her softly tailored jackets, which over the years have both shielded and celebrated women such as Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet L. Yellen, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan, White House senior adviser Valerie Jarrett — and yes, the self-described 'pantsuit aficionado' herself Hillary Clinton ... These are blazers you probably haven't even noticed. You're not supposed to ... The McLemore jackets have filled a niche, overlooked by the likes of Giorgio Armani and St. John Knits, as the uniform for a woman of a certain level of authority. They're designed not only to balance out a woman's proportions or distract from a problem area — but to communicate power."

SOCIAL MEDIA SPEED READ:

Conservative columnist George Will has left the Republican Party because of Trump. "This is not my party," The Washington Post columnist said Friday at an event for the Federalist Society. Will said he changed his voter registration from "Republican" to "unaffiliated" the day after Paul Ryan endorsed Trump. He did not say which candidate he will be supporting. "I just know who I won't be voting for," he told Sarah Kaplan.

Reaction to the news:

Lawmakers celebrated Pride Month:

Including Rob Portman:

So did Clinton:

Morgan Freeman stopped by Capitol Hill:

Susan Brooks spent time with the Dalai Lama:

Spotted in Grand Teton National Park:

Vice President Biden stopped to see James Joyce's manuscripts in Dublin:

Here's a funny account of four journalists driving in Scotland to cover Trump:

HOT ON THE LEFT

"Trump would push U.S. debt to highest levels in U.S. history." The Huffington Post writes up a report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget: "This new analysis takes into account all of the candidates' proposals to date, in order to assess how they would alter the federal budget and, ultimately, the amount of debt that the public holds ... It was not an easy task for the committee's researchers, because Trump barely talks about policy. When he does, he's frequently vague or inconsistent ... taken together, [Trump's] tax cuts would add something like $9.25 trillion in new debt over the next 10 years ... the cumulative impact of Trump's agenda would probably be around $11.5 trillion in additional federal debt over 10 years."

HOT ON THE RIGHT

Pope Francis says gays deserve an apology from the Catholic Church. From Reuters: The Pope traveling back from Armenia "recalled Church teachings that homosexuals 'should not be discriminated against. They should be respected, accompanied pastorally' ... He added: 'I think that the Church not only should apologize ... to a gay person whom it offended but it must also apologize to the poor as well, to the women who have been exploited, to children who have been exploited by (being forced to) work. It must apologize for having blessed so many weapons.'"

DAYBOOK:

The Supreme Court term ends today.

On the campaign trail: Clinton is in Cincinnati with Elizabeth Warren.

At the White House: Obama participates in an ambassador credentialing ceremony. Later, he welcomes the 2015 WNBA Champions, the Minnesota Lynx, to the White House.

On Capitol Hill: The Senate meets at 3 p.m.

QUOTE OF THE DAY:

"I am boring. But boring is the fastest-growing demographic in this country." -- Tim Kaine on "Meet the Press"

NEWS YOU CAN USE IF YOU LIVE IN D.C.:

-- Chance of storms late today but plenty of nice summer weather this week. The Capital Weather Gang forecast: "A slow-moving front brings late day storm chances to start the week, but unlikely widespread severe weather. The middle of the week then brings lowered humidity and storm prospects shut off. Humidity starts to return towards the weekend when we re-introduce the chance of some late day storms. Sunday may present the most significant opportunity for showers and storms. But, at least, there's no sign of excessive heat this week and highs should be below 90 every day."

Today will be a fairly typical late June day with highs in the mid-80s combined with moderately high humidity: "Any storms firing off ahead of the advancing front should hold off until after 5 p.m."

-- The Nationals ended a seven-game skid by beating the Brewers in Milwaukee 3-2. Stephen Strasburg has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with an upper back strain.

VIDEOS OF THE DAY:

The right wing of a Singapore Airlines plane caught on fire on the runway moments after an emergency landing due to engine oil problems. No one on the Milan-bound flight was injured.

Singapore Airlines plane catches fire after emergency landing

The Clinton campaign released an ad attacking Trump over his response to Brexit:

Tested | Hillary Clinton

Watch Trump's bizarre Friday press conference about Brexit:

Trump's bizarre Brexit Q&A

Check out this protester interrupting Trump in Scotland to hand out golf balls with swatiskas on them (click for video):

Trump launched a 10-part video series, outlining what he calls "legendary lies" told by Clinton. In the first video, he focuses on her reaction to Benghazi:

Donald Trump: 'Legendary lie #1' | Campaign 2016

A positive spot from the Clinton campaign credits Hillary with helping to create the Children's Health Insurance Program:

Kayla | Hillary Clinton

The Koch-backed Freedom Partners Action Fund is launching a $2.7 million buy against Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Ted Strickland, going after his record as governor. Here's the first spot:

Tricia

The group will also spend $1.2 million targeting the Nevada Democratic Senate candidate, Catherine Cortez Masto, for opposing the expansion of Uber:

Driving Away Jobs

Martin O'Malley and Jan Brewer got into a heated exchange over Trump:

State of the Union Political Panel - Full part 1

Marco Rubio's Republican primary opponent, Carlos Beruff, has a video mocking Rubio -- mocked for being robotic during the presidential election -- for using almost exactly the same language every time he is asked why he will not commit to serving a full six-year Senate term:

Unequivocal

Seth Meyers took a closer look at the House Democratic gun control sit-in:

Democrats Stage Gun Control Sit-In: A Closer Look

What would it be like if Will Forte ran for president? Jimmy Fallon has the answer:

Presidential Candidate Tim Calhoun (Will Forte)

A 30-second video from a group called Delegates Unbound juxtaposes clips of Ronald Reagan sounding presidential against Donald Trump sounding unhinged. The message is for GOP delegates to follow their conscience in Cleveland: