Fact Checker: We unraveled the White House spin on Obamacare 'failures.'

We unraveled the White House spin on Obamacare ‘failures.’ As the Senate continues to debate a replacement bill for the Affordable Care Act, the White House is publishing a series of statistics to criticize the current law. The White House published a "Repeal and Replace Obamacare" website, rife with numbers and graphics, and is posting various statistics on Twitter. …   Democracy Dies in Darkness     The truth behind the rhetoric   We unraveled the White House spin on Obamacare ‘failures.’ As the Senate continues to debate a replacement bill for the Affordable Care Act, the White House is publishing a series of statistics to criticize the current law. The White House published a "Repeal and Replace Obamacare" website, rife with numbers and graphics, and is posting various statistics on Twitter. We decoded their claims, and found the White House often used accurate figures but characterized them in misleading ways or out of context. Below are some highlights among the claims we fact-checked. For the complete round-up, click here. Our awesome Fact Checker video editor Meg Kelly even made a revised version of the White House’s video on Obamacare “failures,” with the necessary context added to each claim made in the video. You can watch it here. "Obamacare Fail #3: Fewer Covered under Obamacare exchanges. In 2016, 29% of enrollees dropped off Obamacare exchanges, over 3.6 million people" This is a reference to the difference in the number of people who had selected policies in the exchanges as of January 2016 (12.7 million), compared with the number of people enrolled as of Dec. 31 (9.1 million). There is constant flux in the individual market; people drop out when they get a job with health insurance coverage, or when they become eligible for Medicaid. So the 3.6 million people do not necessarily represent those who are no longer covered, as they may have obtained coverage elsewhere. The gradual attrition rate over the course of the year is close to the 2015 rate, notes Charles Gaba, who keeps careful track of enrollment figures at ACASignups.net. Moreover, this statistic ignores that more people are covered under the ACA, and the expansion of Medicaid provided insurance to as many as 14 million people. (The White House disputed our point about Medicaid: "The stat specifically refers to Obamacare's exchanges and does not mention Medicaid.") Enjoy this newsletter? Forward it to someone else who'd like it! If this e-mail was forwarded to you, sign up here for the weekly newsletter. Hear something fact-checkable? Send it here, we’ll check it out.  giphy.com "Obamacare Fail #4: Less Freedom. In 2015, Americans paid $3 billion in penalties for not purchasing unaffordable health plans that did not meet their needs" The number of Americans who paid a penalty actually decreased by almost 20 percent from 2014 to 2015. Did they pay penalties because the plans "did not meet their needs" or because they couldn't afford them? It's not clear. Those who truly can't afford insurance can claim a hardship exemption from the penalty. A 2016 Kaiser Family Foundation survey showed that two-thirds of marketplace enrollees were satisfied with their coverage, and 59 percent said it was easy to find a plan that met their needs. giphy.com ADVERTISEMENT   "FACT: when #Obamacare was signed, CBO estimated that 23M would be covered in 2017. They were off by 100%. Only 10.3M people are covered." The White House frequently tries to discredit CBO estimates by criticizing their previous estimates, but this is misleading. CBO was mostly correct on its forecast for the overall number of 23 million people who would gain insurance under Obamacare. What the CBO got wrong in its projection is the makeup of the type of insurance gained in the total 23 million population. CBO had originally estimated that the 23 million people would gain insurance through the Obamacare exchanges. But only 10.4 million were participating in the exchanges as of the first half of 2016. That is only a subset of the number of people who gained insurance. CBO underestimated the number of people who would gain insurance through Medicaid expansions, due to factors that were unknown at the time. More people than projected signed up for Medicaid — 14.4 million, compared to the projected 10 million. That adds up to 24.8 million total people who gained coverage thorugh Obamacare. A 2015 study by the Commonwealth Fund concluded, "The CBO's projections were closer to realized experience than were those of many other prominent forecasters." giphy.com "28 million still uninsured. Nearly 30 million Americans still without health-care insurance coverage. In just the first few months of this year, nearly two million people dropped their Obamacare coverage." This overlooks that the House GOP plan would boost the number of uninsured by 23 million, and the Senate GOP plan by 22 million, by 2026. We've debunked the 2 million statistic before. It comes from a dubious report issued by Health and Human Services, which found 10.3 million had paid for their first premium in February as of March 15, compared with 12.2 million who had signed up for coverage as of Jan. 31, 2017. (This is similar to the earlier claim about 3.6 million dropping off the exchanges by the end of 2016.) But the HHS report excludes data from March 15 through March 31, which was usually included in previous versions of the report. Previous such reports, even ones issued earlier than June 12, included data through March 31. In virtually every state, people signing up for coverage between Jan. 15 and Jan. 31 do not even pay a first premium until March. Gaba estimates that leaves off about 500,000 people. Using enrollment as of Jan. 31 rather than enrollment through Jan. 15 also serves to inflate the purported decline. We’re always looking for fact-check suggestions! You can also reach us via email, Twitter (@myhlee, @GlennKesslerWP or use #FactCheckThis), or Facebook (Fact Checker or myhlee). Read about our rating scale here, and sign up here for our weekly Fact Checker newsletter.  Scroll down for this week’s Pinocchio roundup. — Michelle Ye Hee Lee The most popular fact checks of 2017, so far It has been quite a year for fact checking so far. Here's a look at our 10 most-read columns from the first six months of the year. By Michelle Ye Hee Lee and Meg Kelly  •  Read more »   Video: Fact-checking President Trump’s claims about ‘unleashing American energy’ We unravel President Trump's claims — new and repeated — about coal, energy the Paris climate accord and the environment from his recent speech on energy. By Meg Kelly  •  Read more »   Decoding the White House spin on Obamacare ‘failures’ We dig into the White House's latest spin on Obamacare. By Michelle Ye Hee Lee  •  Read more »   What you need to know about preexisting conditions in the Senate GOP health plan Another debate about preexisting conditions is brewing over the Senate bill to overhaul the health-care system. We dig into what the bill says about preexisting conditions. By Michelle Ye Hee Lee  •  Read more »   ADVERTISEMENT   Recommended for you   The Energy 202 Your daily guide to the energy and environment debate. Sign Up »         Share Fact Checker:       Twitter      Facebook Trouble reading? Click here to view in your browser. You received this email because you signed up for Fact Checker. For additional free newsletters or to manage your newsletters, click here. We respect your privacy. 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