Enjoy this newsletter? Forward it to someone else who'd like it! If this email was forwarded to you, sign up here. Did you hear something fact-checkable? Send it here; we'll check it out. No, violent crime isn't soaring, but neither is it falling During the ABC News debate, there was a moment when moderator David Muir fact-checked Trump's claim that crime was soaring. "President Trump, as you know, the FBI says overall violent crime is coming down in this country," he said. Trump dismissed FBI crime figures. "They were defrauding statements," he said. "They didn't include the worst cities. They didn't include the cities with the worst crime. It was a fraud." Then, two days later, he claimed that a new Justice Department report, the 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), showed he was right. "MASSIVE NEWS! The Department of Justice just released brand new Crime Data showing I was absolutely and completely right at the Debate," he wrote on social media. "In fact, the Data is even worse than we could have ever imagined." In our debate fact check, we noted that Trump relies on NCVS data, but given the new report, the dispute over the numbers seemed worthy of a deeper dive. This is a good example of how politicians highlight government reports — and cherry-pick from them — to shape their rhetoric. There is no perfect metric, as there are flaws in both the FBI report (not all crimes are reported) and the victimization survey (it's an estimate with a margin of error). To read the full fact check, please click the link below. |
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